Who wins 2023 Governorship election?

One of the stories from last weekend was the Labour Party wave that saw it winning in some of the unlikely spots. Many parties also lost in their strongholds. However, our investigations show that next weekend’s polls may not necessarily follow the patterns that emerged on February 25. It is expected that local issues and personalities – not necessarily parties – would determine the race in several states.

Of particular interest would be what would happen in Southeast states where the regional consensus to back Obi’s presidential bid caused upset all calculations. Now many parties and individuals are fighting for their political lives.

In Anambra State, for instance, there would be no governorship elections. But Governor Chukwuma Soludo faces the prospect of the Labour Party taking over the House of Assembly – leaving him vulnerable and at their mercy.

Governors in Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi would be anxious to retain their grip and install their successors. All of this makes for a potentially tense and unpredictable contest across the zone.

It remains to be seen what bandwagon effect the triumph of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, in the presidential election would have on the gubernatorial contests and where that would be given that politicians are loath to find themselves in out of alignment with the power at the center.

The following correspondents contributed to the report: Fanen Ihyongo (Kano); Onimisi Alao (Adamawa ), David Adenuga (Bauchi), Victor Gai (Taraba), Kolade Adeyemi (Plateau), Sola Shittu (Gombe), Uja Emmanuel (Benue); Ahmed Rufa’i (Jigawa); Linus Oota

(Nasarawa); Augustine Okezie (Katsina); Duku Joel (Yobe); AbdulGafar Alabelewe (Kaduna); Justina Ashisana (Niger); Khadijat Saidu (Kebbi); Damian Duruiheoma (Enugu); Ogo Anioke (Ebonyi); Okungbowa Aiwerie (Delta); Adekunle Jimoh (Kwara); Mike Odiegwu (Rivers) and Nsa Gill (Cross River) Out of the 19 states in the North APC controls 14. They are Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Plateau, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna, Kano, Jigawa, Zamfara, Gombe, Yobe, and Borno. The March 11th poll is a litmus test for the party on its ability to retain its grip on these areas.

Predictably, the battle continues among the big four namely: APC, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian Peoples Parry (NNPP).

KANO STATE

Ahead of the last lap of 2023 general election, stakeholders of political parties and their governorship candidates are leaving no stone unturned to ensure victory at the polls. In Kano state, although there is a big field of candidates, the contest is a two-horse race between the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). However, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is also good to watch.

APC

The victory of the presidential flag bearer of APC at the polls has broadened the chances of the ruling party in its campaign to retain power in Kano on March 11. The Deputy Governor, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna had the endorsement of Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje to become the party’s candidate. A former Commissioner of Local Governments Murtala Sule Garo, who strongly contested the ticket against Gawuna, became the deputy governorship candidate.

Outgoing governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who is not seeking any election, is poised to deploy all the apparatus of government with financial resources to ensure his deputy (Gawuna) succeeds him.

NNNPP

NNPP is one of the strongest and fastest rising political parties in the state. It has become a threat to APC, which is on the throne in the state for about eight years.

However, one factor militating against the party which is an offshoot of the PDP, is that it has no formidable structures in the state like APC and PDP. Everything about it revolves around the founder, Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The party was only formed in early 2022 by former governor, following his defection with his allies from PDP. Thus, NNPP, in spite of the crowd it pulls, is still seen as the Kwankwasiyya Movement. Analysts say Kwankwaso’s loss will make many of the party’s supporters shift tent to APC during the governorship election in order to ensure APC retains power in the state.

PDP

Before its gubernatorial primary, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP in Kano State was divided into two factional groups, between former minister Aminu Wali and former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. This made Kwankwaso to dump PDP and form the NNPP with his army of supporters in Kwankwasiyya Movement. This development has weakened the PDP hold in Kano State and what has remained of it is a fraction of the split -the Wali faction.

The chances of PDP winning the governorship in Kano are becoming slimmer by the day, because of intra-party conflicts and litigations following parallel leadership structures that troubled the PDP in Kano which led to factional primary elections.

The party had held parallel primaries with one nominating Mohammed Abacha – son of late military dictator Sani Abacha, while the other produced Sadiq Wali as the flag bearer.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) first declared Abacha as the candidate but later published the name of Wali as the party’s legitimate flag bearer. The confusion made Abacha seek legal redress. The court then declared him (Mohammed Sani Abacha) as the duly elected governorship candidate of the PDP in Kano. Wali appealed the judgment and last month the Appeal Court sacked Abacha and declared him as the party’s legitimate candidate for the gubernatorial poll in Kano. Abacha has gone to the Supreme Court for a final decision on the dispute. The crisis has made the party’s followers to become stranded, some of which are now migrating to APC. It was gathered that Atiku had asked Kano PDP and NNPP chapters to work in a pack. During the meeting, Atiku reportedly pleaded with Kwankwaso to do a silent merger with PDP in order to deliver him in Kano. Then Kwankwaso and his party chieftains, sources said, told Atiku and PDP stakeholders in the state to also deliver his NNPP gubernatorial candidate Abba Kabir at the poll. Kwankwaso’s demand was rejected. Those rejecting the candidacy of Abba Kabir point to the fact that he is a son-in-law to Kwankwaso. The two political parties (NNPP and PDP) could not reach a consensus on who should be supported for the governorship and presidency when they went to the presidential and National Assembly polls. Atiku’s third position in the state confirmed how weak PDP has become in Kano.

Shekarau’s contradiction

The APC governorship primary election was an outcome of the battle between Ganduje’s camp and the G-7 faction led by the senator representing Kano Central District, former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, who was denied an APC ticket for his reelection bid.

This saw Shekarau pulled out of APC to Kwankwaso’s NNPP. But later on, Shekarau migrated to PDP when he reportedly struck a political deal with former vice president and PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. But while Atiku lost the presidential election to APC’s Tinubu, Shekarau stirred up a contradiction as INEC dramatically declared him winner of the Kano Central Senatorial seat on the platform of the NNPP. The controversy has plunged the NNPP into fresh internal crisis and opened a new chapter of squabbles with the PDP. The two parties appear to be fighting dirty to the gain of APC.

Moments after declaring Shekarau as the winner, NNPP’S agent, Shehu Usman, accused INEC of refusing to substitute Shekarau, who dumped the party for PDP.

Similarly, APC’s agent, Alhaji Yusuf Atta, urged INEC to declare the party’s candidate, Abdulkarim Zaura, who emerged second, as the winner, arguing that Shekarau did not participate in the election. But INEC’s Returning Officer, Darma, said the issue would be addressed at the election petitions tribunal.

LP candidate collapses structures to support APC to victory

The Labour Party (LP) governorship candidate in the state, Bashir Ishaq Bashir, recently resigned from the party and declared support for APC.

At the build up to the presidential polls, Bashir withdrew from Peter Obi – the LP presidential candidate and boycotted his rally in Kano. He was seen working for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu during the ballots. Through his platform known as the game changer for Asiwaju/Shettima 2023, with the slogan, ‘Sabon Lale’ (Swinging the Votes) the former LP candidate will help galvanize the ruling party’s gubernatorial campaign and ensure APC wins at the polls.

VERDICT: NNPP

KADUNA STATE

As the February 25th Presidential and National Assembly elections have been won and lost, the race to Sir Kashim Ibrahim House, Kaduna, is heated up. The March 11 poll is certainly going to be a contest between two wounded lions, the ruling APC and the opposition PDP.

PDP won last Saturday’s presidential election in Kaduna State with 554,360 votes to defeat APC, which trailed with 399,293 votes. The Labour Party (LP) came third in the number of votes scored. Although it won more local government areas than the ruling party, it only secured 294,494 votes.

PDP won in 14 local government areas of Zaria, Sabon Gari, Kagarko, Ikara, Makarfi, Kaduna South, Giwa, Kauru, Kudan, Kaduna North, Lere, Soba, Kubau and Igabi, while the ruling party won only in Sanga and Birnin Gwari local government areas.

Despite the victory at the state level, where it also cleared all the three senatorial seats, PDP is obviously coming to the governorship race with aggression for losing the presidential race at the national level.

The ruling APC on the other hand is bitter about losing all the senate seats to PDP, especially, Kaduna Central and Kaduna North districts, which are currently occupied by the ruling party. They appear to have gone back to the drawing board and are planning how best to retain the governorship seat.

Most APC chieftains believe their party was set to win all the elections in Kaduna before the naira redesign policy. They argued that the policy incited the public against APC, hence the poor performance witnessed during the first election.

The State APC Campaign Council in its reaction to the recent poll, said it suffered reversals in the presidential and National Assembly elections in Kaduna because of the “strange decisions designed to stir massive anger against it” but the reversals will be corrected.

The Director, Strategic Communication of the Council, Ibraheem Musa, however, vowed that, ahead of the March 11 gubernatorial elections, APC will deepen its strategy, campaign harder and return back to the people to further sell its manifesto. He said APC will ensure that the failures witnessed during the February 25th elections are democratically reversed and turned to success for APC across the state.

Musa said: “We applaud the people for performing the civic responsibility of casting their votes, under the most severe circumstances. The votes of the people of Kaduna state have contributed to the obvious triumph of APC in the presidential election. APC has won a great national victory, despite the obstacles placed on its path by strange decisions that were designed to stir mass anger. The Kaduna state APC Council is pressing forward with its engagement with the people for governorship and the state House of Assembly elections on March 11th.

“In these challenging times, we have had reversals that will be democratically corrected on 11 March 2023. As democrats, we are not bellyaching over the setbacks our party and its candidates experienced in several constituencies in our state, and we expect every political party to emulate this and respect the choice of the people, not only when it favours their partisan interest. This is anchored on a record of competent governance, promotion of public welfare and the concrete achievements the APC has recorded in Kaduna state since 2015.

“The real battle for the future of Kaduna state will be on 11 March 2023 when Senator Uba Sani whose record of service is unparalleled, and our 34 state assembly candidates will be on the ballot. We are counting on the people of Kaduna state to come out en masse and vote peacefully, as well as overwhelmingly for the candidates of continuity,” Musa said.

The PDP on the other hand is already making efforts to woo other opposition political parties to its side, so that they can collectively wrestle power from the ruling party. The Chairman of the party in the state, Hon. Hassan Hyet, described the defeat of APC as a sign of total rejection of the party in government in Kaduna.

PDP Chairman urged the people not to relent in their determinations, and repeat same by voting massively for PDP in the forthcoming gubernatorial and state House of Assembly elections.

He said: “For the first time in history, PDP clinched the three senatorial seats, and 10 out the 16 federal constituencies in the state. More to that, in 2019 general elections, PDP produced the highest number of votes for our presidential candidate, and same was repeated in the just-concluded elections. “

Hyet further explained that PDP in the state is working very hard to maintain the lead and win at the coming elections.

However, beyond the calculations of both APC and PDP, the Kaduna electorates are currently divided into four groups: the group that voted for PDP and APC respectively in the just- concluded elections and ready to repeat same in the March 11th poll; the group that voted for other political parties and are discouraged that their preferred candidates didn’t win and won’t bother to come out for governorship elections; the group that didn’t come out at all during the presidential poll and those who are only interested in who becomes president, but don’t care about governance at the state level.

If the election is to be decided by the first group, the PDP will surely carry the day in the gubernatorial and state assembly elections. What will however determine the winner in the March 11th polls is ability of each of the two major contenders in the race to win the three other groups to their side.

By now, it is clear to both the Obi-led LP and Kwankwaso-led NNPP that, they lack the numerical strength to win the governorship slot in Kaduna. Their strength will however make a big difference if they agree to align with any of the major parties.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

TARABA STATE

The March 11 governorship elections would be a litmus test in Taraba politics. Would the political status quo be changed or would it be maintained? This is the crucial question in the minds of Tarabans as we go into the epic battle.

The top contenders are: Col. Agbu Kefas of PDP, Emmanuel Bwacha (APC), Danladi Baido (SDP), Professor Sani Yahaya (NNPP) and Joel Ikenya (Labour Party).

As a matter of fact, the factors that would determine the outcome of the election are: history, the outcome of the presidential election, ethnicity, religion and the pedigree of each candidate.

Going by history, Taraba has never been lost to the opposition since its creation. In fact, it holds the enviable position of the only PDP State in the north never to have fallen to the opposition. Therefore, unless history is changed, the state is most likely go the way of PDP. This is so because the Taraba electorates are more disposed to the party rather than the candidate.

The outcome of the just concluded presidential election would add credence to this claim.

The PDP scored 189,017 to beat others. Strangely enough, while the Labour Party came second with 146,315, the main opposition APC came third with 135,165. NNPP, a new prospect, came fourth with 12,818.

Meanwhile, the two leading contenders, APC and PDP had endured a divided house resulting in court litigations which could put the chances of the two parties in jeopardy. Very important and influential members of both parties are so aggrieved and it is in doubt if they would work for the party in the governorship election.

For instance in PDP, former Chairman, Victor Bala Kona and former Speaker, Joseph Albasu Kunini have gone on sabbatical. Worse still, a serving member of the House of Representatives, Danladi Baido defected to SDP in protest against the mismanagement of party affairs. The governor, Darius Ishaku who happens to be the leader of the party was alleged to have fallen out with the governorship candidate and was no longer having a grip of the party. The humiliation of the governor in the National Assembly elections by a relatively unknown candidate actually added salt to injury.

APC too is not without its own headache. Some leaders that matter in the party are not with the governorship flagbearer, Emmanuel Bwacha. Individuals like David Sabo Kente, the senator representing Taraba Central, Yusuf A. Yusuf, Sani Abubakar Danladi and former Minister Saleh Mamman have all refused to recognize Bwacha because of the primary elections that produced him.

The APC candidate is touted to stand out among the lot going by his experience, popularity and grassroots connection. The popular belief among Tarabans now is that Bwacha remains the biggest threat to PDP in Taraba. Besides, being a Christian, he has the potential of churning out the Christian majority vote and the Muslim bloc vote who are traditionally APC.

The PDP candidate Agbu Kefas, was a, former chairman of the party in the state. Quite unassuming and perceived as docile, Kefas was a former security chief. He is one who it is believed acts more than he speaks. He is full of optimism of transforming the fortunes of the state if elected. But he would face stiff competition from other candidates who are more grounded politically.

The candidate of NNPP, Professor Sani Yahaya was an aggrieved governorship aspirant in APC. He later jumped ship to NNPP. Observers say, should APC and PDP fail to put their house in order, Yahaya might steal the show with huge Hausa/Fulani Kwankwasiya votes in his kitty.

Also, Danladi Baido, the National Assembly member, is a grassroots politician of considerable experience. He has been doing his campaigns underground. With little or no structure in the state, his chances are limited but he might be the spoiler especially for PDP where he came from.

The surprise exploits of Obi during the presidential election in the state, might be a tonic for Ikenya of Labour Party. The massive votes the party garnered in the election if repeated during the governorship polls, might give Ikenya the victory. This is in the face of crisis in both APC and PDP.

With his grassroots connection and popularity, Ikenya might pull a surprise. Last week’s elections have proven that no candidate is indispensable.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

NIGER STATE

The results of the presidential and National Assembly elections in Niger state were shocking and unexpected because some of the local government areas, which were rated as the stronghold of APC were taken over by the opposition, especially PDP and LP.

APC won 21 local government areas which included Wushishi, Rafi, Gbako, Gurara, Paikoro, Bosso, Lavun, Magama, Tafa, Agaie, Munya, Kontagora, Agwara, Shiroro, Mariga, Mashegu, Rijau, Chachanga, Borgu, Lapai and Bida.

While PDP earned Edati, Katcha and Mokwa Local Government Areas, Labour Party won Suleja respectively.

In Niger state, the two main contenders for the governorship race are the APC Governorship Candidate, Honorable Umar Bago and the PDP Candidate, Alhaji Isah Liman Kantigi.

These two would have to fight for the votes from Niger South because the Presidential elections showed that PDP won majority of the votes from that zone signaling that the zone has the strength of Kantigi.

However, it may be an easy sail for APC in the Niger East and North senatorial zones as it reflected during the presidential and House of Assembly elections. APC would clinch the two districts without difficulty.

There is no doubt that the governorship race would follow the same pattern as the Presidential and National Assembly elections. APC may win the governorship poll.

The voting pattern may not be the same in the House of Assembly election, There is high probability that the state would have some elected members from the opposition parties in its next House of Assembly following the trend of the National Assembly elections.

VERDICT: APC

YOBE STATE

One of the biggest surprises that came out of the presidential election was the change of the calculation in Yobe. No party man in the state and beyond ever contemplated the kind of victory PDP recorded in the state. It was indeed a shocking defeat for APC when PDP won the state with a difference of 47,108 votes. From the official results declared, PDP came top with 198,567 while APC trailed second with 151,459.

The declaration of the result has since given the state chapter of APC some sleepless nights. But PDP leaders and supporters are emboldened by the victory and they believe that the governorship and the state House of Assembly elections will be a walk over for them in the state.

The gubernatorial candidate of the PDP, Mr. Bashir Sadiq boasted after the results in Damaturu that Yobe might witness a change regime. He said: “What happened last Saturday has given us confidence. It is more or less just a referendum for the gubernatorial election and we are going to win Yobe, In Sha Allahu come March 11th”.

While the loss of the party has pitched the stakeholders in the state against one another, many party supporters believe that Governor Mai Mala Buni will deliver Yobe with ease because of his popularity and various positions he has held in the party. APC leaders in the state have, however, gone back to the drawing board to appraise their failure and map out strategies to re-establish their supremacy in the state.

Investigation revealed that Buni on February 28th held a closed door meeting with all stakeholders including all political appointees in the state. An insider in the meeting told our correspondent in confidence that the governor was blunt and disappointed in his appointees for allowing PDP to record such a victory in Yobe.

An insider also revealed that some of the stakeholders pointed out Buni’s fault which made it responsible for the PDP to make such a historic inroad in the state. The source revealed that the governor gave a marching order that the state must re-establish and redeem her status in the eyes of Tinubu’s government by ensuring a landslide victory in the governorship and House of Assembly elections.

As part of steps to reclaim Yobe from PDP in the next election, the Deputy Governor, Hon. Idi Barde Gubana on March 1st also met with all the traditional rulers in the state behind the curtains in WAWA Hall of the Government House where they were all tasked to go back to their domains and deliver votes to APC.

Investigation revealed that some of the reasons that caused APC defeat were largely attributed to leadership neglect of the governor whom many in the state accused of being surrounded with youths at the expense of real party-men at the grassroots.

The governor was also accused of being addicted to social media which the youth have exploited to their own advantage by deceiving him that everything was going on well while in the real sense the people were discontented.

A party stalwart who for fear of victimization berated the governor for losing grip on the structure of the party to inexperienced hands. He particularly pointed accusing fingers at a member of the State Executive Committee of APC for orchestrating imposition of candidates during the last primaries of the party.

On the accusation of the governor indulging in anti-party activities, the state chairman of the party, Mohammed Gadaka said the governor never ever and will not contemplate working for the PDP after nurturing APC as a party to an enviable height.

The party chairman also described the claim that PDP will win the Yobe governorship as a “fantasy and a dream.” He explained that the fortunes of the party in the elections were scuttled by the influence of a powerful Islamic cleric with a huge followership in the region, Sheik Dahiru Bauchi who instructed his followers to vote for PDP.

“After the Izala Islamic group leader made a statement for his people to support Tinubu, then Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi’s followers also asked him to take a stand on a political party. Dahiru declared his support for PDP.

“Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi also made a statement that his people should vote for Atiku and that is what caused this change in the Northeast. He has a lot of followers in the Northeast and in Yobe too. But for next election, it is not going to happen this way.

“I want to tell the people who are claiming that Buni did anti-party that it is not true. The influence of Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi on the people is what caused the unfortunate outcome of the presidential election in our state. It was beyond our governor’s control. We are solidly behind our candidate Tinubu who will be forming the next government In Sha Allahu.

“People should not forget that APC won all the three senators in the state and this is a clear sign that Yobe is a stronghold of APC,” Gadaka said.

It was shocking also to many that Buni, a former Chairman of the National Caretaker/Extra-ordinary Convention Planning Committee failed to deliver the state to APC. Atiku came ahead top with 198, 567 votes while Tinubu trailed with 151, 459 votes respectively.

A glimpse at the APC performance in the state indicated that, apart from Buni losing his home in Gujba Local Government Area with 6,643 to PDP’s 8,204, as against, the Minister of Power, Abubakar Aliyu, also lost Potiskum Local Government with 13,521 behind PDP’s 34, 787.

The Director-General of APC Campaign Council in Yobe State and former PDP senator, Mohammed Hassan, who defected to APC recently, also joined the Minister of Power to lose Potiskum to PDP. The President of the Senate, Dr. Ahmad Lawan equally lost his Bade Local Government Area to PDP with 15,789 as against APC’s 8,081 votes.

The State Party Chairman, Mohammed Gadaka, lost his local government of Fika with APC securing 12,419 votes and PDP garnering 19,975 votes

The same victory was recorded in Fune Local Government Area by PDP where the State Deputy Governor, Idi Barde Gubana, hails from. PDP scored 18,308 votes while APC scored 12,696 the area.

Out of the 17 local governments in Yobe State, the PDP clinched 12, leaving five for APC.

But Gadaka was confident that the misfortune witnessed by his party at the presidential election does not make PDP popular in the state.

PDP has a tall dream to achieve in a complex state like Yobe where some indices, especially tribal factor, determine power pendulum. The ethnic configuration makes the party’s ambition difficult except there is a miracle against APC. The PDP governorship candidate, Sheriff Abdullahi, is from Bade Local Government Area and he is Bade by tribe. But Buni is from Gujba and he is said to be Kanuri, the largest ethnic group in the state. The Kanuri do not joke with power control in the state.

The personality factor

The last presidential election was largely based on personality and that is why many people voted Atiku in the Northeast. But when it comes to the governorship election in Yobe, Sheriff is not a personality compared to Buni. The people may go all out to vote for Buni.

“PDP will not smell victory in this election. I will tell you something that will shock you. For the House of Assembly election, everyone will win based on his popularity with his people,” Mohammed Gaskanta, former state party secretary of the defunct APP said.

VERDICT: APC

GOMBE STATE

The news of the defeat of Gombe State Governor, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, at his polling Unit, Yahaya Umaru polling Unit 010 Jekadafari, Gombe was no doubt a shocking one to the ruling APC in the state.

What was more shocking was the violence that broke out in the same polling unit leading to the death of one person and two broken legs of, Alhaji Kawuu Masu, the party youth’s leader, who is now in an Abuja hospital receiving treatment.

Since then, tension has been mounting in the state especially over whether the governor can survive the pending tsunami in the state politics.

A close look at the results of the presidential election neither put a smile on the face of the ruling APC nor any ray of hope for Governor Yahaya. At present, the opposition PDP seems to be having an upper hand in the state with two senators-elect – former Governor Hassan Dankwambo, (Gombe North) and Honourable Tony Siyaku Yaro (Gombe South) in its kitty. Similarly, out of six members of the House of Representatives in the state, the APC won only one by Hon. Bello Kumo of Akko Federal Constituency. The remaining five constituencies were again earned by the opposition PDP.

However, the ruling APC has a hope in only one man who has proved himself to be a political enigma in the state, Senator Muhammed Danjuma Goje who won his Gombe Central senatorial ticket for the fourth term. Unfortunately, for the party and the state government, it is not certain if Goje is on the same page with the governor.

Goje has not been visible or active in the local politics of Gombe in recent times. He is an unseen hand pulling some strings which may undermine APC. He was not even at the Presidential campaign of Asiwaju and the APC in Gombe.

Political observers believe that the silence of Goje in Gombe politics is a signal of danger not only for the party in the state but also the second term ambition of Yahaya. When Tinubu visited Gombe late last year to canvass for the votes of Gombe delegates in APC primary, he specifically expressed concern about the fragile relationship between the governor and Goje. He added that if Goje was in town, he was ready to take the governor to him and straighten things out.

Nevertheless, all hope is not lost for the ruling party and its governor because the opposition PDP is also battling with an internal crisis over its choice of candidate, Alhaji Jibrin Barde, which has led to the exit of many party faithful to the relatively New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Today, NNPP is gaining ground in Gombe and it has become the opposition party in the State House of Assembly.

Undoubtedly, the result of the February 25th presidential election is not likely to have any impact on the local politics in Gombe. Many power blocs have already been formed and their minds already made up on the governorship election. These blocs cut across the three senatorial districts of the state. The political barometer at the moment in Gombe indicates a straight fight, first between Alhaji Jibrin Barde of the PDP and Hon. Khamisu Mailantarki of NNPP who is alleged to be enjoying the support of some political bigwigs in the state and Abuja.

Secondly, the battle can also be between Yahaya as a sitting governor versus both Barde and Mailantarki or whoever emerged from a rumored alliance between the PDP and the NNPP. If the two opposition parties refused to reach a compromise before the Governorship Election, Yahaya might end up being the greatest beneficiary of the confusion in their camps. Yet and again, the Goje factor has a big role to play in all these because with the stronghold of Goje on Gombe Central and Dankwambo in Gombe North and s the strong opposition of Gombe South to the ruling government, whosoever Goje endorses might be the winner of the election.

At the moment, a lot of political meetings and horse trading triggered by the loss of the state to the PDP in the presidential election are going on in Gombe and Abuja. These meetings might result in the defection of some political bigwigs into any of the three political parties, APC, PDP and NNPP which will point to where the votes of the majority of Gombe are likely to go.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

PLATEAU STATE

After the presidential and the National Assembly elections, the attention of voters and stakeholders in Plateau State has shifted to the governorship battle.

Giving that the incumbent governor Lalong is completing his second term, the race is now open for any political party to succeed him. And from the look of things, the contending political parties are APC, PDP and LP.

Though the governorship election is a state affair, the outcome of the presidential election will certainly have influence on the voting pattern in the March 11 governorship election. How such influence is likely to play out in the case of is the puzzle everyone is eager to see.

The statistics of strength of the contending political parties obtained from the results of the presidential election shows that, of the 17 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Plateau State, the ruling APC won in three namely Kanam, Wase and Kanke respectfully. PDP won in Langtang and Mikang LGAs. And LP won in 12 LGAs including Bokkos, Langtang North, Jos East, Riyom, Mangu, Bassa, Jos South, Pankshin, Shendam, Qua’an Pan and Barkin Ladi LGAs.

Giving the voting pattern of the presidential election, the chances of the ruling APC to extend its dominance in Plateau state beyond the tenure of Lalong is very slim. Winning just three of the 17 LGAs was already a vote of no confidence in the ruling party. It was a major setback for APC.

Notwithstanding, the fact that APC retained power at the national level could snowball into a victory to the ruling party in the governorship election. Already, APC stakeholders are warning people against voting other political parties that will make them remain in opposition against APC at the national level. Whether or not the new campaign strategy will change the voting pattern on March 11 is left to be seen.

As things stand now, the governorship election has been limited to Labour Party and PDP.

THE NATION found out that irrespective of the outcome of the presidential election, the factors that will determine winner of the governorship election are: the personalities behind the three contending political parties – APC, PDP and LP; the incumbent governor, Simon Bako Lalong; the immediate past governor of the state Jonah David Jang and another ex-governor of the state Senator Joshua Chibi Dariye. They are the topmost political titans in the state and they are so influential that they call the shots in the state.

Their political influence shows clearly in the dominant political parties today in the state. The incumbent governor Lalong is the driving force in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Jang is unarguably the leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. Senator Dariye is equally the leader of Labour Party in the state. The leaders of these three political parties decide what happens in their political parties respectively.

As a matter of fact the governorship election in Plateau State can only be won by APC, PDP or LP.

Another factor that has put PDP ahead of others and made its chances in the governorship election brighter was in respect of the results of the National Assembly elections. From the results, PDP won two of the three senatorial districts. The opposition party has also five of the eight House of Representatives seats in the state. Given such grassroots dominance, PDP is ahead of other parties.

Though LP got the highest number of votes cast in the presidential election, the party did not win any National Assembly seat. LP might not do well in the governorship election.

VERDICT: PDP

ADAMAWA STATE

The governorship race in Adamawa State is being contested by six players, including an amazon, Sen. Aishatu Ahmed Binani of APC). The female candidate is pitched against Governor Ahmadu Fintiri who holds the ticket of PDP; Dr. Umar Ardo who bears the ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP); Umar Mustapha of LP, Alhaji Muhammed Tahir of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and Ibrahim Babaina of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

Of the lot, Ibrahim Babaina, from the onset, has appeared to be the least to make impact come March 11 when the governorship election takes place because he has not shown much commitment to the race. A former military man who retired as a lieutenant commodore, Ibrahim Babaina had appeared from the blues to the political scene last year when he rehabilitated the PRP which was little heard of in the state. He has had such poor presence on the scene across Adamawa State that he is rarely thought of even when the governorship contest is the topic of discussion.

For Muhammed Tahir, otherwise known as MC Tahir after his full name, Mohammed Chugbado Tahir, the impression is virtually the same. When NNPP came alive in Adamawa State last year following its rebirth at the national level by Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, the credit in the state went to Tahir who was immediately reputed to be its leader at the state level. He eventually became NNPP governorship candidate. But he has been quiet, possibly for health reason, as he was at a time said to be battling with a certain ailment.

The Labour Party candidate, Umar Mustapha, better known simply as Otunba in view of his title from Ekiti State, is much more in the news, but not strictly in positive light. From when he obtained the Labour Party governorship ticket to date, he has not enjoyed a functional working relationship with the party at either the state or national level.

Otunba’s quarrel with the national leaders of the party came into the open early last month when the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, came on a campaign visit to the state and Otunba kept his distance. He said Obi’s coming was not properly communicated to him and he was not invited to be a part of Obi’s campaign in the state.

Following intra-party crisis, Otunba announced at a ceremony put together by the APC in Yola that because he was not getting a good deal from his Labour Party both at the state and federal levels, he and his supporters had chosen to support not the LP presidential candidate but the APC candidate and now President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Otunba emphasized, however, that he remained the LP governorship candidate in Adamawa State.

It is doubtful that if Otunba would go far at the poll. Apart from his estrangement from his party, he does not appear to have made sufficient public impression to get votes.

Dr. Umar Ardo of the SDP has a more formidable public image and is seen as the third ‘most serious’ of the governorship contenders. A veteran governorship candidate, Ardo had always been in the PDP but rarely ever getting along with its leadership. He had at first shown his disdain for PDP by forming what he named Redeemed PDP (R-PDP) but left completely towards the current electoral circle for the SDP which he re-energized, He picked SDP’s governorship ticket, and he is now set for the coming governorship election.

The March 11 election will be the first at which Umar Ardo’s political strength will be tested in the court of the electorate. It is expected that of the six in the governorship race, he should come after the big two.

The big two candidates in the race are Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP and Aishatu Ahmed Binani of the APC. The two remain the real issues in Adamawa State for the governorship election.

The two candidates have been at par in rating such that it is difficult right now to say who will take the day.

Fintiri has the power of incumbency which should count for him. He has also been widely commended to have done well in delivery of development projects.

The two flyovers that his administration has built are sources of pride to many Adamawa people who are elated that they now have a semblance of the opulence of Abuja in Yola. But his critics, including LP’s Otunba, described the flyovers as white elephant projects.

In general terms, Fintiri’s major drawback, as some observers would note, has been lack of enthusiasm for stomach infrastructure, with many of his initial supporters complaining of not having been compensated by him. This is why many have reasoned that great public infrastructure, which defined the administration of former Governor Jibrilla Bindow, may not guarantee second term for a governor. Bindow did well but he lost re-election bid. Fintiri’s case is only different in the sense that his PDP, unlike Bindow’s APC in 2019, is united at the state level.

Binani on the other hand has proven herself to be a politician you can ignore at your own peril. She proved her political worth in May last year when she floored five famous and hard fighting men to pick the APC ticket. She is believed to have enough up her sleeve to pull through and become Nigeria’s first elected female governor on March 11th.

A source of doubt exists, however. Her party, the APC, is almost as disunited now as it was in 2019 when it lost the governorship seat to the PDP. The intra-party disharmony of 2019 was re-enacted last year after Binani won the APC ticket when one of her opponents, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, went to court to question her candidacy.

The candidacy was restored by the Court of Appeal. It is uncertain whether or not Nuhu Ribadu and his supporters as well as others who had issues with Binani will support her. As an Amazon, Binani nonetheless, has a number of influential supporters within the APC who are openly demonstrating support for him. A House of Representatives member, Hon Abdulrazak Namdas and highly vocal Senator Ishaku Abbo readily come to the mind.

Namdas who was one of the prominent party men who fought for the APC governorship ticket with Binani, has long put the APC primary behind him. He has given his support to Binani and he was with her all through her campaign for the general election in the state.

Senator Abbo who currently represents Adamawa North District in the Senate, has similarly been all over the state with Binani as she campaigned for the March 11 governorship election.

And Binani’s chances are seen as having been buoyed now by the emergence of her party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, as the President-elect.

The euphoria of victory is indeed strong in Adamawa State, with the state APC leadership right now planning a rally in solidarity with the Asiwaju.

VERDICT: PDP

BAUCHI STATE

For Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, securing a second-term mandate is not going to be an easy one for several reasons. Fifteen political parties have nominated candidates for the election. These candidates from different political parties emerged from the governorship primaries of the different parties held last year. They are Hassan Kalid of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP); Auwal Adamu, Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM); Governor Bala Mohammed of PDP, Senator Halliru Dauda Jika of NNPP; Abubakar Ibrahim of LP, Abubakar Saddique of APC; Umaru Nuhu Tilde of SDP; and Umar Faruq Ahmed of the Peoples’ Redemption Party (PRP).

Others are Saleh Auwalu Dahiru of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Usman Dankyrana Mustapha of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Musa Magazine of the Action Alliance (AA), Ahmed Magaji Saleh of SDP, Saleh Sulaiman of the National Rescue Movement (NRM), Kabiru Abdulhamid Shuwa of the Action Peoples’ Party (APP) and Umar Garba Aliyu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP).

Despite the crowded list, the contest is among three political parties: the PDP, which is the ruling party; the APC and the NNPP. It’s believed that the result of the presidential election may have an impact on the governorship race with realignment of forces, including those seeking to associate with the incoming APC administration of Tinubu.

Bauchi South as battleground

In Bauchi South, it will be an epic battle between APC and PDP in the zone. NNPP is said to have a weak structure in the zone. The district itself consists of seven local government areas namely, Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro.

The incumbent Governor Mohammed who hails from Alkaleri Local Government Area would seek to take advantage of the plurality of votes from the district, which accounts for 63 per cent of the votes in the state.

For those familiar with Bauchi politics, the political climate cannot be predicted. But, what cannot be disputed is that Bauchi people can be stubborn and very cold. Those attributes played out in the ousting of the immediate past Governor Mohammed Abubakar of the APC.

Mohammed defeated the immediate past governor during the last general elections in 2019 with the majority of the votes coming from Bauchi South, especially Bauchi Local Government. As such, whoever wins this zone will automatically win the election due to its large population.

Mohammed made history in the 2019 elections by being the first to defeat an incumbent governor in the state since the return to civil rule in 1999.

Political analysts believe Mohammed’s re-election will be a very tough one this time around with the multiple oppositions he is facing. Until now, the governor is expected to sail through in the zone but recent developments have changed the permutations.

For instance, a former member of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Shehu Abdullahi, who was among those who helped the governor to secure votes in the Bauchi Local Government in 2019 has fallen out with him. Though Abdullahi was a former PRP stalwart, he is believed to have worked for the governor at the elections. It’s said that Yakubu may work against the governor’s reelection this time around.

Similarly, former Governor Isa Yuguda, who hails from Bauchi South, was one of those that helped to mobilize support for Governor Mohammed in the zone. But, he is no longer in the PDP. He is now in the APC and this is a boost for the party.

The battle line had already been drawn with the outcome of the National Assembly / Presidential elections.

Both parties continued their rivalry at the election with the PDP showing why it is the ruling party in the state. It won the presidential election for its candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar, and won a majority of the House of Representatives seats and Senatorial Districts.

But unfortunately, the PDP did not win the Bauchi South senatorial district. The candidate of the APC, Hon Shehu Buba was declared the winner in the Zone. However, PDP candidate, Aminu Aliyu Garu won the Bauchi Federal Constituency seat.

Garu, a popular politician in the South, is expected to vote for the governor in the council as a Reps-elect.

The APC itself won five while the PDP won seven Federal House of Representatives seats. Out of the five, three of the Reps-elect for the APC are from Bauchi South.

These Representatives-elect are grassroots politicians who can help mobilize their people to vote for APC candidate, Sadique.

Coincidentally, the APC deputy governorship candidate, Shehu Musa Aliyu is from Bauchi Local Government Area as well.

He is expected to influence the voting pattern in favour of his party. Aliyu, a popular grassroots politician was elected into the House of Representatives in 2015. He lost in 2019 but contested again and won the primary in 2022 before he was picked as a running mate to Saddique Abubakar.

Hence, political analysts are of the view that the APC candidate will match the governor’s strength for strength in his stronghold. Though the governor is not taking chances. He showed his strength when he delivered Bauchi for Atiku.

The disunity in the state chapter of the PDP may affect the governor’s chances in the zone. For example, prominent politicians like the former speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara who controls three local government areas (Bogoro, Dass, and Tafawa Balewa), a former national chairman, Alhaji Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu, and respected elder statesman, Alh. Muhammadu Bello Kirfi – all from Bauchi South – may work against Mohammed’s reelection.

The dethroning of the elder statesman, Kirfi, as the Wazirin Bauchi by the Emirates Council for allegedly “disrespecting” the governor suggests a deep crisis in the party at the state level.

Although some leaders mobilized voters for Atiku, they won’t do the same for Mohammed due to their grievances with him.

The chairman of the Bauchi Peoples’ Parliament (Zauren Mutanen Bauchi), a civil society organization, Abubakar Billy, said PDP would only win Bauchi South if the crisis in the party is resolved before the election.

Billy, the first grandson of the late Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa-Balewa said: “The PDP may only have its way only if the governor sorts out his differences with some of these people.”

Bauchi North

Until now, APC was predicted to win Bauchi North, but with the outcome of the presidential/ National Assembly election, it has been observed the zone will be another battleground.

Recall Bauchi governor delivered 18 out of 20 local government areas to Atiku at the presidential election.

The PDP presidential candidate pulled an upset in Giade and Katagum councils (Bauchi North) by defeating the APC President-elect in the strongholds of the party.

Giade is the local government of the APC gubernatorial candidate, Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar while Katagum is the local government of the current Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, and Mariam Katagum, Minister of State for Industry, Trade, and Investment.

The APC also lost the Bauchi North Senatorial election to the PDP. Kaila Dahuwa Samiala was declared the winner of the election. He defeated his closest rival, Sirajo Tanko, of the APC.

It lost the Shira/ Giade and Zaki constituencies to the PDP as well. Ibrahim Sanni Tanko and Dan Abba Shehu won the constituencies respectively but analysts predict a comeback by the APC in the zone.

The grassroots politicians expected to pull votes for the APC candidate are two former Deputy governors, Abdulmalik Mahmood who served under former governor Adamu Muazu for eight years, and Sajir Aminu Saleh, a deputy governor to former governor Mallam Isa Yuguda and the Reps-elect for the Gamawa Federal Constituency, Gamawa Adamu Ibrahim.

Others mobilizing support for the APC in the zone are Yerima Giade, a former National Commissioner in the Federal Character Commission, and a former National Secretary of the PDP, Alhaji Musa Babayo.

To garner more support in the northern district, Governor Mohammed selected Auwal Jatau from Zaki LGA as his running mate, after dropping his deputy, Sen. Baba Tela.

He also picked the Director-general of his campaign team, Farouk Mustapha from the region, as well.

Mustapha was one of the governorship aspirants of the APC before he defected to the PDP after failing to get the party’s ticket. He once represented Katagum Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives but lost his bid to go to the Senate.

The Chief of Staff to the governor, Dr. Aminu Gamawa, the PDP Representatives-elect for Katagum, Shehu Mohammed and Ibrahim Sani Tanko who won Shira/ Giade constituency’s ticket are expected to deliver votes to Bala Mohammed in the zone.

But an APC chieftain in the state, Comrade Sabo Mohammed told the Nation that the picking of Jata’u, won’t stop his party from winning the zone. He said there is a collective consensus among critical stakeholders in the state to massively support Sadique.

He said Bauchi South itself has dominated the governorship in the last 23 years, taking advantage of its population and the number of local government areas. He said: “All the governors since 1999 on the platform of both the PDP and the APC are from the region. They include Ahmadu Adamu Muazu (PDP), Isa Yuguda (APC), Mohammed Abubakar (APC), and the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed (PDP).

“The bone of contention is that the people of the northern zone, comprising Misau, Jama’re and Katagum Emirate Councils are not happy with the fact that the only time the region produced a governor was 43 years ago when Abubakar Tatari Ali became the first civilian governor between 1979 and 1983. But, his tenure was thwarted by the military coup on December 31, 1983, which brought General Muhammadu Buhari to power as a military leader.”

He told the Nation that only disunity in the zone would rob them of the opportunity of producing the next governor because they have gained sympathy from the people of Bauchi State after being sidelined for a long period.

But Billy said the electorates in Bauchi North are behind the governor in the zone.

He said there is no agitation anywhere because the Katagum people are okay with producing a deputy governor because their collective decision was to wait until 2027 to produce a governor.

“Come to think of it, Bauchi people are not after where you’re from but your performance. That’s why they voted out former governor Mohammed Abubakar. We’ve not seen someone who has done so much like this governor in terms of infrastructural development”

Bauchi Central

The Bauchi Central Senatorial District covers the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji.

The APC appears to be currently divided in the zone following the defection of the Senator representing the zone, Jika Dauda Halliru representing Bauchi Central, who is now contesting for the governorship race under the NNPP.

It’s believed that the emergence of Jika from the Bauchi Central will spoil APC’s votes in the zone to give the PDP an edge.

Jika was elected to represent the Darazo/Ganjuwa Constituency in the House of Representatives and he served two terms between 2007 and 2015.

In the 2019 election, he was elected a senator to represent Bauchi Central on the platform of the APC. The grassroots politician was once the speaker of the Bauchi State House of Assembly before he later emerged as the governorship candidate of the NNPP, following his defection to the party.

Jika’s popularity in the zone would give both the APC and PDP a. headache considering his political experience and popularity.

Danlami Babantakko described Jika as a very strong candidate who is a determined and committed politician with vast experience in politics.

He said: “Unarguably, Jika is a good material in the party, and politics, as they say, is a game of numbers; he has thousands of supporters across the state that would eventually help the party to wrestle power from the opposition. Banking on the popularity of the NNPP, Jika plans to cash in on Rabiu Kwankwaso’s popularity as the main actor in the NNPP. He will certainly spoil APC’s votes in the zone.”

However, PDP won the Bauchi Central Senatorial district. Abdul Ningi, an ally of the presidential candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar was declared the winner of the election.

Ningi scored 104,878 votes while Hon Uba Ahmad Nana of the APC came second with 84,621 votes. Sen. Isah Hamma Misau of the NNPP came third with 17,995 votes.

Ningi’s victory makes it his second term in the Senate. He served as a Senator representing Bauchi Central Senatorial District from 2011 to 2015 in his first term.

Ningi, who delivered his council to Atiku, is expected to pull massive votes for the governor in the zone.

Other popular stakeholders for the PDP in Bauchi Central are the party chairman, Alhaji Hamza Akuyam; the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Suleiman Abubakar who was in the APC before he defected to the PDP; and the Head of Service, Yahuza Adamu.

The rest are the PDP Reps-elect in Ningi/Warji, Adamu Hashimu, the Reps-elect in Misau/Damba Bappa Aliyu, and the Reps-elect in Ganjuwa/Darazo, Mansur Manu Soro.

For the APC, stakeholders expected to pull votes for Sadique in the zone are Uba Nana, the immediate past Chairman of the party but unfortunately, he lost the senatorial election to Ningi. He is from one of the minority LG (Warji) in the zone. Other APC stakeholders are the current APC Chairman Alhaji Babayo Misau and a presidential aide Ya’u Darazo.

VERDICT: PDP

BENUE STATE

Before Saturday Presidential and National Assembly elections ,the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Benue State had gone into the race with three (3) Senators , Nine ( 9) out of eleven (11) House of Representatives seats .

All that changed dramatically, against all expectations. The (PDP) came out of the presidential and National Assembly elections as a wounded lion with only one Senatorial seat of out of three, one House of Representatives seat out of 11.

The opposition All Progressive Congress, APC overran PDP and won 11 House of Representatives seats and two senatorial seats (Zones A and B).

In the presidential elections, APC despite being an opposition party polled 310,468 to defeat PDP and Labour Party (LP) with 130,081 and 308,372 respectively.

The massive votes polled by LP were attributed to the incumbent factor influenced by Governor Samuel Ortom, who worked strenuously for Mr. Peter Obi. But from the results of the presidential election so far, the move was counterproductive because PDP which is the ruling party, suffered a heavy defeat.

Going by the presidential and National Assembly elections results APC and its governorship candidate, Rev. Father Hycient Alia, are already one leg in Government House in Makurdi.

APC

The party looks good to give the ruling PDP a run for its money in the state. Fr. Hycinth Alia is the rave of the moment and he is enjoying massive followership .With the enthusiastic backing for him in urban and rural areas, pundits have concluded that PDP is gone and APC is coming in the state.

Many claim Alia will win big because the PDP administration owes teachers, pensioners and civil servants etc. Since Ortom is serving out his two terms, the electorates will be free to choose a candidate and a party to liberate the state from the harsh economic situation.

The result of the Presidential Election may have a great impact on the governorship race in Benue state with APC likely to make a haul of votes.

Factors which may determine governorship poll

The Minister for Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, Senator George Akume, remained largely the stabilizing force behind the sustenance and victory of APC in Benue state from 2011 to date. The governorship race will not be different as APC will still depend on his magic wand to pull political stunts and send PDP out of Government House, Makurdi.

Gen Lawrence Onoja, Austine Agada, Nelson Alapa, and Chief John Ochoga will hold tight in Zone C. APC is good to go on March 11.

PDP

For the ruling PDP to make any meaningful impact in the governorship race, it is like a biblical camel passing through the eyes of the needle. Benue PDP came out of the presidential race more divided with blame game.

The last man standing in PDP is the Deputy Governorship candidate Chief John Ngbede, who despite the APC tsunami, held tight to his Apa/ Agatu federal Constituency and retain the seat.

Can Benue PDP bounce back?

Benue PDP got 130,081 votes why Labour Party polled 308,649 votes, bringing the total votes cast 618,840.

The total number of PVCs collected in Benue state is 608,141, out of the total number of 2,607,141 PVC collected. It is hard for PDP to bounce back because with the election of APC’s Tinubu, Benue people will like to associate with national politics.

VERDICT: APC

JIGAWA STATE

The governorship elections in Jigawa State may be more competitive than the presidential and National Assembly elections. The election will be between JIgawa Northeast Senatorial District and Jigawa Southwest Senatorial District, despite the fact that the Northwest Senatorial District also has governorship candidate.

The colour of the governorship election may be based on zonal /district politics and the pedigree of candidates but not political parties. Jigawa state is suffering from Emirate politics since the creation of the state over three decades ago by a former military Head of State, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida.

There are three major contenders in the state for governorship election. They are the state’s Deputy Governor, Malam Umar Namadi of the ruling APC; the PDP which has Dr. Mustapha Sule Lamido and Mr. Aminu Ibrahim Ringim of NNPP.

The Northeast zone /district is pushing hard to produce the next governor of Jigawa because it has not had the opportunity. The electorate in the zone want to make history this time around.

An APC stalwart and member of Namadi/Roller Campaign Council, who is also an indigene of Dakayyawa, Kaugama Local Government Area under the Hadejia zone said: “This is our time. Since the creation of the state in the last 32 years, we have never produced the governor.

“The two other zones produced two governors each. They are Alhaji Ali Saadu Birnin-Kudu and Alhaji Sule Lamido from Jigawa South-West. Senator Ibrahim Saminu Turaki and Governor Badaru Abubakar emerged were from the North-West. It is our turn, nobody would stop us”.

Jigawa Southwest District is seeking governorship slot because of alleged injustice by the other zones. The people of the district are complaining of neglect on development projects and political appointments.

Going by the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections, Jigawa Northeast Senatorial District and JIgawa South-West Senatorial District have demonstrated their determination to produce the next governor of the state. APC candidates won in the Northeast District during the February 25th Presidential and National Assembly elections, the PDP candidates secured tickets in the Southwest Senatorial District. The way the politics is in the state, the Northwest District would determine the choice of the next governor.

VERDICT: APC

NASARAWA STATE

As the clock ticks for the March 11th 2023 governorship election in Nasarawa State, there is apprehension on whether or not Governor Abdullahi Sule of APC will be re-elected for a second term.

He is being challenge by the governorship candidates of PDP, David Umbugadu, that of NNPP Abdullahi Yakubu Maidoya, Mustapha Muhammed Alfa (SDP) and Joseph Ewuga of the Labour Party.

In 2019, David Umbugadu, who was the candidate of the PDP, garnered 184,281 votes to come second to Governor Sule with 327,227 votes. Labaran Maku of APGA came third with 132,784 votes.

The defection of Labaran Maku from APGA to PDP ahead of the 2023 governorship election and his emergence as the director general of the PDP campaign organization, will bring the 132,784 votes he got in 2019 to add up to Umbugadu’s 184,281 votes to defeat Sule in the forthcoming poll.

Besides that, all the governorship aspirants who contested against David Umbugadu in the primaries are all supporting the candidature of Umbugadu.

Other stakeholders of the party backing Umbugadu include ex-BOT chairman of PDP, Senator Walid Jibrin, Senators Philip Gyunka and Suleiman Adokwe among others.

Despite its poor performance in the presidential and National Assembly elections where it secured only one senatorial seat and came third in the state with 147,093 votes, PDP in Nasarawa State believes that Sule has not done enough to warrant second term.

The candidate of NNPP, Abdullahi Yakubu Maidoya who hails from Lafia where the chunk of the state’s votes come from is the only candidate contesting the governorship from the southern zone of the state which comprises Awe, Obi, Lafia, Doma and Keana Local Government Areas(LGAs). He is hoping to get home support.

He has equally campaigned across the 13 LGAs in the state with a message to make NECO, WAEC and JAMB free for Nasarawa citizens. He also pledged to grant autonomy to LGAs if he is elected. Though with no structure, the party was able to garner 12,715 votes during the February 25th presidential election. NNPP did not win a single seat.

Maidoya might end up dividing Lafia votes to the advantage of David Umbugadu of PDP.

The candidate of the SDP, Muhammed Alfa Mustapha hails from Akwanga Local Government, Area with Sule.

His party won two senatorial seats and two House of Representatives seats. It is safe to say that he will give Sule the run for his money.

Unfortunately, many citizens of the state do not know who the SDP candidate is. He has not been campaigning and those who won National Assembly tickets under SDP have abandoned him. They are also not ready to work for him. But he may benefit from a bandwagon syndrome.

Another candidate who is likely to cause upset if the result of the February 25th presidential election in the state is anything to go by, is the governorship candidate of the Labour Party in the state, Joseph Ewuga. His presidential candidate Obi won Nasarawa State with 191,361 votes.

Though, the party did not field candidates for all elective positions, his fate in the forthcoming governorship election is in the hands of the anxious Igbo traders and Christian community in the state who trooped out in large number