Nigerian rice farmers are abandoning paddy fields in droves, driven out by a surge in global supply.

A glut from major Asian producers, notably India, has sent international prices crashing, making it impossible for local farms to compete.

Nigerian rice farmers are abandoning paddy fields in droves, driven out by a surge in global supply.

A glut from major Asian producers, notably India, has sent international prices crashing, making it impossible for local farms to compete.

Farmers switch to profit‑friendly crops

Compounding the market pressure is Nigeria’s liberal rice import policy.

Recent customs reforms have removed tariffs, enabling Nigeria to import nearly 61,000 tonnes of rice, its highest volume in 10 years.

The flood of cheap foreign rice into domestic markets has forced local prices well below breakeven levels for farmers.

Smallholder rice producers are increasingly pivoting to other crops offering better returns.

Many now favour maize, cassava, and other staples where local prices remain more stable and margins are sustainable.

Local millers and processors confirm the economic fallout: rice bags once sold at upwards of ₦90,000 now trade at ₦67,000 or less, a 28% drop since January.

For accountants running the numbers, continuing rice cultivation has become unviable without subsidies or protective policy reforms.

Food security at risk

While consumers welcome lower rice prices, analysts warn of long-term risks.

Reduced domestic production undermines Nigeria’s food sovereignty and exposes the population to future shocks if import channels are disrupted.

According to a BusinessDay report, experts argue that insufficient policy planning allowed the oversupply situation.

With tariffs removed and no safeguards for local producers, Nigeria ceded market share to foreign players, despite domestic capacity.

Agricultural associations are urging federal intervention. FACAN chairman Victor Iyama called for protective tariffs or support programmes, stressing that Nigeria should rely more on ramping up local cultivation than foreign dumping.

Rising imports, declining production

USDA figures show Nigerian rice production slipped 7 per cent to 5.23 million tonnes in 2024/25, from 5.61 million tonnes the previous year.

With the country importing over 43% of its rice needs, the dependency on global supply is deepening.

Market watchers expect rice prices to fall further in 2025/26, following favourable harvest forecasts in India and other major producers.

A commodity report from AFEX predicts up to an 11% price drop, even as global demand remains muted.

The road to revival

Restoring balance in Nigeria’s rice sector may require multiple actions: reintroducing targeted import tariffs, providing input support for farmers, investing in local supply chains, and boosting productivity.