Nigeria’s non-oil exports doubled to N18.43 trillion in first half 2025, helping the country to retain a trade surplus of N12.64 trillion despite a shortfall in crude oil earnings.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that non-oil exports rose from N8.79 trillion in first half 2024 to N18.43 trillion in first half 2025, an increase of 109.7 per cent.

The increase in non-oil exports was due to increasing exports of agricultural produce and solid minerals, underlining the emerging trend in diversification of national revenue.

The robust performance of non-crude exports helped Nigeria to retain stronger trade surplus as crude oil exports dropped by N3.18 trillion during the period.

Crude oil exports, which remain the country’s biggest revenue sources, declined from N28.10 trillion in first half 2024 to N24.92 trillion in first half 2025, a drop of N3.18 trillion. Crude exports had dropped from N12.96 trillion in first quarter 2025 to N11.97 trillion in second quarter 2025. Crude oil as percentage of total exports also dropped to 52.6 per cent in first half 2025 compared with 71.2 per cent recorded in comparable period of 2024.

Total exports stood at N43.35 trillion against imports of N30.71 trillion, leaving a positive trade balance of N12.64 trillion, a 54.6 per cent rise compared to the N8.17 trillion surplus recorded in first half 2024.

On a quarterly basis, trade surplus had increased by 44.3 per cent from N5.17 trillion in first quarter 2025 to N7.46 trillion in second quarter 2025. Exports grew by 10.5 per cent to N22.75 trillion in second quarter 2025, while imports slipped marginally by 0.9 per cent to N15.29 trillion.

Experts said the continuing diversification in earnings and record decline in oil theft strengthened Nigeria’s fiscal outlook.

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa said the positive trade account should help to further stabilise the foreign exchange (forex) market.

“Overall, the solid improvement in the trade balance provides some respite for Nigeria’s external sector which could help ease pressure in the forex market and support external reserves,” Afrinvest stated.

Analysts noted that latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) signallled an improvement in the mitigation of oil theft.

According to the NUPRC, Nigeria’s crude oil losses from theft and metering challenges has dropped to its lowest levels in 16 years. The oil regulatory body noted that the daily losses as of July 2025 stood at 9,600 billion barrels per day (bpd) – the lowest level since 8,500 bpd of 2009.

“To juxtapose the data, Nigeria recorded an average of 9,600bpd in crude oil loss between January and July 2025, representing a 15.0 per cent improvement from the average of 11,300bpd in 2024. The data in 2025 is also a massive improvement of 90.7 per cent, relative to the average of 102,900bpd in 2021.

“The improvement in crude oil losses can be attributed to structural reforms from the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, underscoring sustained policy impact. The commission also alluded that collaboration with security agencies, operators and host communities as well as implementation of key regulatory measures to plug leaks such as metering audit across upstream facilities have aided the reduced crude oil losses. In our view, this improvement is a step in the right direction and a possible turning point in fiscal revenue,” Afrinvest stated.

Analysts noted that Nigeria recorded an estimated average revenue $105.0 million as of June from its crude oil sales at an average price of $69.73 per bbl, which was the third highest in 2025.

Afrinvest highlighted three major benefits of the record decline in oil theft to the macroeconomic stability.

“To start with, a relief in fiscal revenue is on the cards. Despite disparity in latest production levels and federal government’s budget benchmark-July crude oil production of 1.51mbpd and government’s budget of 2.01mbpd, as well as international price dynamics-September Average: $66.96/bbl, government Budget: $75.00/bbl, reduced losses from crude oil theft should translate to increased crude oil available for sales, thereby boosting FAAC allocations and limiting fiscal strain.

“Secondly, we expect to see a boost in forex liquidity and CBN’s external reserve. Crude oil exports, accounting for c.85.0 per cent of forex earnings remains Nigeria’s chief source of forex inflows. It is important to note that the naira has strengthened in 2025, up 2.4 per cent so far this year to N1,501.50 per dollar, largely driven by policy reforms from the CBN, as such higher export volumes should result in improved forex inflows, thereby easing pressure on the Naira.

“Finally, reduction in crude oil losses could boost investors’ sentiment in the oil and gas sector given the recent wave of divestment in the sector characterised by asset sales from international oil companies (IOCs) to indigenous oil companies. A major driver of this trend was the persistent security and operational risks associated with oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Nevertheless, with crude oil losses now at historic lows, there is bound to be renewed optimism which could rekindle investment appetite in the upstream segment, strengthening output prospects, and reinforcing Nigeria’s fiscal and external buffers,” Afrinvest stated .

According to Afrinvest, the reduction in crude losses represents a structurally positive development, which signals improved governance and regulatory vigilance in the oil sector via strategic implementation of PIA.

“While current crude oil production is still far from federal government’s target, it is a massive improvement from the theft-ridden era of 2021, and a further step taken to ramp up oil production and improve fiscal revenue,” Afrinvest stated.