The rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has brought to the fore the neglected but growing non-oil sector that is playing a huge role in the economy.

While this has shown that the oil sector has been relegated from being the major activity shaping the country’s economic activity, it indicates that efforts to wean off the economy are taking a good shape.

Recall that the headwind in the global economy in 2016 had hit the oil sector which greatly affected Nigeria’s economy, pushing it into recession.

This prompted the previous administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to implement several measures to promote non-oil exports to safeguard the country from global shock that affects the stability of oil prices.

However, the gains of the success were hidden within the old basket used for computing the GDP.

After the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) updated the item in the GDP basket using 2019 as the new base year, the size of the economy swelled to N372.82trn in 2024, up from N314.02trn in 2023. The change incorporates more informal and emerging sectors, from digital technology to the creative industries, offering a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economic reality.

Statistician General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the rebasing exercise, which now covers data from 2019 to 2023, better reflects the country’s current economic structure.

“In nominal terms, Nigeria’s economy was estimated at N205.09trn in 2019, up from the previous base year value by over 41 per cent,” Adeniran said.

He revealed that total output steadily rose post-2019, reaching N372.82 trillion in 2024. Real GDP growth also rebounded strongly after the pandemic, rising from -6.96 per cent in 2020 to 4.32 per cent in 2022 and 3.38 per cent in 2024.

For the first time, real estate has overtaken oil and gas to become the third-largest contributor to GDP, behind crop production and trade and accounts for 10.78 percent of output, compared to oil’s 5.85 percent, according to the report by NBS.

The CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Muda Yusuf, said real estate’s rise is not just a statistical quirk but reflects the growing demand for housing, urban infrastructure, and commercial spaces in a country with one of the world’s fastest-growing populations. Government policy needs to catch up with that reality.”

Creating a new economic balance

The rebased figures show a country steadily moving beyond petroleum dependence. The oil sector’s GDP share has dropped to just 3.97 percent, while the non-oil economy commands over 96 percent Yet, experts warn, the dominance of non-oil sectors has not translated into proportionate government revenue, exposing a structural weakness.

In the first quarter of 2025, 37 sectors recorded growth, with standouts including metal ores (25 percent), financial services (15.3 percent), transportation (14.1 percent), and ICT (7.4 percent). Oil refining also expanded by 11.5 percent following new domestic capacity.

On the downside, nine sectors contracted, including coal mining (-22.3percent), livestock (-16.7percent), and textiles (-1.63percent). Three sectors; air transport, textiles, and coal mining remained in recession.

New frontiers

Agriculture’s GDP share improved from 22.1 percent to 25.8 percent post-rebasing, while services rose from 50.2 percent to 53.1 percent, driven by finance, ICT, and trade. But sector growth rates remain uneven: agriculture grew just 0.7 percent in Q1 2025, and manufacturing only 1.7 percent as the analysis showed.

“There’s room for optimism in ICT, real estate, and finance,” said Chioma Agwuegbo, a Lagos-based policy analyst who added, “But agriculture and manufacturing are lagging. If these sectors remain underperforming, the growth we’re celebrating will be uneven and fragile.”

Finance Minister Wale Edun welcomed the figures as a sign of resilience and reform progress, saying the new data “provides a better tool for targeted policymaking” and highlights the contribution of sectors that previously went undercounted.

On his part, Economist, Michael Famoroti pointed out that the rebasing makes Nigeria’s GDP about 30 percent larger than previously estimated and lowers its debt-to-GDP ratio from 52 percent to about 40 percent While that strengthens the country’s fiscal profile, he warns it could also breed complacency if structural challenges remain unaddressed.

For now, the rebased GDP reshapes Nigeria’s standing in Africa, potentially reclaiming the top spot from South Africa and Egypt in nominal terms. But for most Nigerians, the headline figures matter little without better jobs, infrastructure, and living standards.

“The rebase tells us our economy is more dynamic than we thought. The question is whether our policies and politics are dynamic enough to match it,”Agwuegbo said.