Economists and financial analysts have explained why food prices and the cost of living continue to rise despite Nigeria recording a second consecutive decline in headline inflation in July 2026.

Nigeria’s headline inflation declined for the second consecutive month to 15.43 percent in July from 15.91 percent in June, according to the Consumer Price Index, CPI, and inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, on Monday.

NBS data showed that the month-on-month headline inflation rate in July 2026 stood at 1.57 percent, representing a 0.09 percentage-point decline from the 1.66 percent recorded in June.

On a year-on-year basis, Adamawa State recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 33.03 percent, while Nasarawa State recorded the lowest at 7.86 percent.

Nigeria’s food inflation rises for sixth consecutive month

Meanwhile, food inflation rose sharply for the sixth consecutive month to 20.31 percent from 17.52 percent.

This indicates that food prices have surged significantly over the past six months.

The NBS attributed the rise in food inflation to increases in the average prices of crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh onions, fresh carrots, rice, water yam, fresh tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour, among others.

Adamawa records highest, Nasarawa lowest food inflation

A state-by-state analysis showed that Adamawa State recorded the highest food inflation rate at 51.36 percent, while Nasarawa State recorded the lowest at 6.88 percent.

The latest inflation figures highlight the realities Nigerians continue to grapple with daily, as the cost of living remains elevated.

Economists and financial analysts, who spoke with DAILY POST on the July CPI and inflation data, noted that the rising cost of living remains a major burden for the majority of Nigerians.

Nigeria’s inflation at 40 percent – Unegbu counters NBS

Dr Okechukwu Unegbu, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), said, contrary to the NBS data, Nigeria’s headline inflation stood between 35 and 40 percent.

According to him, the NBS CPI data may not truly reflect what Nigerians face in marketplaces and at points of transaction.

He noted that, in his view, inflation has yet to improve in Nigeria.

“For me, the inflation that is dropping is neither here nor there.

“It doesn’t make sense to me.

“This is what I say. Inflation is based on looking at the public spread. How are people living? What is the standard of living like? Okay. You probably were able to buy your fuel, let’s say, N600 per litre from N1,100 per litre.

“And for me, it is not improving. If inflation drops in society, it will reflect on the general public. You go to the market, you should be able to buy one orange for N5, not buying one orange for N15.

“These are the issues. So, inflation for me, the dropping does not make sense. We keep our own record. And our own record says inflation is still high in Nigeria.

“My figure is far more, up to 35-40 percent,” he told DAILY POST.

Food, household item prices remain elevated – Oyedokun

Also, Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, Professor of Accounting, said the second consecutive decline in headline inflation to 15.43 percent in July could be a positive sign of emerging macroeconomic stability but should not be mistaken for a fall in the cost of living.

According to him, the disinflation recorded in the last two months was driven by a combination of factors, including exchange-rate stability and tight monetary policy, rather than fuel price reduction alone.

He noted that the real challenge was that food prices and the cost of other essential household items remained high, meaning Nigerians were yet to benefit significantly from the lower headline inflation rate.

“Nigeria’s second consecutive decline in headline inflation to 15.43% in July is a positive sign of emerging macroeconomic stability, but it should not be mistaken for a fall in the cost of living.

“The disinflation is likely driven by a combination of relative exchange-rate stability, tight monetary policy, easing core inflation and favourable base effects, rather than fuel-price reductions alone.

“The challenge is that food prices and other essential household costs remain high. Many Nigerians are yet to feel the benefit of the lower inflation rate.

“In economic terms, prices are rising more slowly, not falling. The real test is whether this trend can be sustained while food prices moderate, purchasing power improves and wages begin to catch up with the elevated cost of living,” he told DAILY POST.

What govt must do for Nigerians to experience improved living conditions – CPPE

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the marginal drop in headline inflation reflects improved macroeconomic stability.

However, he noted that the high cost of living persists.

According to him, there is a need for fiscal interventions by governments at all levels to ensure ordinary Nigerians experience an improvement in their living conditions.

“Well, the marginal drop-in inflation rate is perhaps a reflection of the sustained macroeconomic stability, particularly around the exchange rate.

“And the fact that the exchange rate has remained stable and, in a few instances, even slightly appreciated, I think has impacted positively on investment. It has also impacted positively on investors’ confidence.

“And it has also, in a way, lowered inflation expectations. So, for me, I think the principal issue here will have to do with the macroeconomic environment, which I think has been responsible for this.

“But that is not to say that the cost-of-living issues are still not there, because the key drivers of the cost of living are still major pressure points as far as inflationary pressure is concerned.

“I’m talking about food inflation, transportation, energy costs and utilities. Those ones continue to be the driving force.

“Unfortunately, that is an area which impacts a lot on ordinary people.

“That is why the ordinary citizen still continues to be very vulnerable, even with the deceleration or even with the disinflation that we are recording.

“So, there is still a lot of intervention that needs to be done at both the federal and the state government levels to address concerns around food inflation, transportation, energy prices and the cost of utilities.

“And these are really structural factors that require fiscal intervention at both the federal and the state levels,” he stated.