Nigeria’s external position strengthened in the second quarter of 2026 as higher crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products and non-oil exports lifted the country’s goods account and widened the current account surplus.

Export earnings rose to $20.08bn in Q2 2026 from $15.56bn in the first quarter. Crude oil exports increased by 15.78 per cent to $9.39bn, while gas exports climbed by 40.15 per cent to $3.63bn.

The increase in export earnings was reflected in Nigeria’s current account position. Provisional balance of payments statistics released by the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the current account surplus rose by 67.93 per cent to $7.54bn in Q2 2026 from US$4.49bn in Q1 and US$5.17bn in the corresponding period of 2025.

“Provisional balance of payments statistics for Q2 2026 show a current account surplus of $7.54bn, which was higher than the $4.49bn and $5.17bn recorded in the preceding quarter (Q1 2026) and corresponding period of 2025, respectively,” the CBN said.

The improvement in external earnings came alongside stronger performance across several export categories. Refined petroleum product exports increased by 66.24 per cent to $3.94bn during the quarter, while non-oil exports rose by 25.30 per cent to $3.12bn.

At the same time, crude oil imports declined from $1.39bn in Q1 2026 to $0.58bn in Q2.

The developments have renewed attention to the factors supporting Nigeria’s oil production and the security of petroleum infrastructure, particularly in the Niger Delta.

Among the stakeholders linked to the improvement is Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, which was appointed by the Federal Government to protect oil pipelines and other critical assets in the region.

Led by High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, TSSNL has worked with other security outfits on pipeline surveillance and the protection of oil infrastructure.

Stakeholders said the operations have contributed to improved security around oil assets, supported the flow of petroleum resources and helped reduce losses associated with oil theft.

The security of pipelines has become increasingly important as Nigeria seeks to raise crude production, meet export commitments and provide feedstock for domestic refineries.

President General, Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Udoh, said pipeline protection has helped national institutions move from reactive crisis management towards longer-term planning.

“It is important to clarify the role of pipeline surveillance within the wider energy landscape. Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.

He added: “Its mandate is precise: safeguarding critical infrastructure that transports petroleum resources. Yet this single function has proven foundational. Without secure transportation channels, production targets falter, refining plans collapse, exports decline, and fiscal projections become unreliable.”

Continuing, he wrote: “Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns. When that hinge is weak, every other link in the chain carries strain. When it is secure, the entire system gains coherence.”

Udoh said sustained monitoring and rapid response have reduced pipeline breaches and illegal tapping, while improved accounting for production has supported higher output.

This, according to him, has also helped restore Nigeria’s position in international oil markets and allowed the country to reclaim market share lost to Angola and Libya.

“Economic stability follows predictability. When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls. Gas-to-power projects can operate without recurrent shutdown risks.”

“Investors can assess Nigeria’s petroleum sector with clearer risk profiles. Surveillance therefore does more than stop theft. It reintroduces reliability into national energy planning. And reliability is the bedrock upon which sustainable economic growth is built.

“With predictable flows, national budgeting becomes more credible, infrastructure planning becomes more precise, and long-term contracts become easier to negotiate. Predictability is the silent currency of modern economies, and pipeline surveillance has begun restoring it,” he stated.

The implications extend to public finance, as higher accounted-for production can translate into increased export revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and fiscal capacity.

Investment and production

Beyond pipeline security, investment in existing and new oil assets remains important to sustaining production growth.

Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of Brittania-U, Catherine Ifejika, highlighted the need for additional investment in mature assets, citing the company’s Ajapa field.

She said more than $400m was invested after Brittania-U acquired the asset from Chevron, including the drilling of additional wells and deployment of a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading facility.

According to her, the investment enabled Ajapa to commence production at about 2,300 barrels per day in 2010, followed by increased and more stable output.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has also said new incentives for offshore oil and gas projects could attract $50bn in new investment into Nigeria’s offshore energy sector.

However, the sector continues to face a shortage of skilled personnel required to take advantage of new offshore opportunities. It said annual investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry had fallen to about $2bn from $26bn in 2014.

Nigeria has nevertheless recorded growth in crude and condensate production. Total oil output rose from 1.48 million barrels per day in February to 1.735 million barrels per day in June, according to the NUPRC.

“Today we are attracting new investments, and so we want to see an upward trajectory. It stands to reason that you must go back to the basics. First of all, we need the right competencies in sub-surface,” NUPRC’s Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, recently stated.

The investment drive has also extended to the 2025 oil and gas licensing round. The NUPRC warned 31 companies that emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks to pay their signature bonuses within the stipulated period or risk losing their provisional awards.

The commission said compliance with the payment of signature bonuses had commenced following the issuance of provisional awards to the successful bidders.

“Exactly a month ago, the NUPRC hosted the 2025 commercial bid conference in Abuja where 31 companies emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks. Having issued the winners with the provisional awards, compliance with the payment of signature bonuses has already begun.

“Winners who fail to pay signature bonuses within the stipulated time frame in line with the Petroleum Industry Act will forfeit their bid guarantee and lose their provisional awards to the reserve bidders,” the NUPRC stated.

Under the Petroleum Industry Act and applicable licensing guidelines, successful bidders are required to pay signature bonuses ranging from $3m to $7m per block.

They are also expected to provide the required guarantees, pay first-year rents and satisfy other post-award conditions within the prescribed period. Failure to meet the requirements will result in the automatic transfer of the affected award to the next-ranked reserve bidder, according to the NUPRC.

Deepwater investment

Nigeria’s efforts to revive investment in deepwater oilfields have also gained momentum, with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and its partners signing agreements expected to move the proposed Bonga Southwest/Aparo project closer to a Final Investment Decision.

The project, located in Oil Mining Lease 118, is expected to attract up to $21bn in investment. It has a projected peak production of about 175,000 barrels of oil per day and 140 million standard cubic feet of gas per day.

NNPC Ltd and the OML 118 Contractor Parties, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria (Deepwater) Limited and Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited, executed an Addendum to the OML 118 Production Sharing Contract and an Addendum to the Dispute Settlement Agreement.

President Bola Tinubu also approved the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, aimed at improving the competitiveness of Nigeria’s deepwater fiscal regime and attracting fresh investments.

The project partners also announced the completion of the project’s Pre-Front End Engineering Design phase, moving the proposed development towards the more detailed Front End Engineering Design stage.

The completion of the Pre-FEED work helped to mature the technical and commercial scope of the project and position it for further engineering activities, subject to approvals and other governance requirements.

Sustaining production

For industry experts, sustaining Nigeria’s production growth will require a combination of exploration, field development, enhanced recovery from existing assets, improved security, infrastructure upgrades and faster regulatory approvals.

They noted that exploration must be accompanied by aggressive field development, enhanced recovery from mature assets, improved security, infrastructure upgrades, and faster regulatory approvals.

According to them, Nigeria already possesses substantial proven reserves, and the greater challenge is converting those reserves into sustained production rather than simply discovering additional hydrocarbons.

They pointed out that unless these structural constraints are addressed, increased exploration spending alone is unlikely to deliver the higher crude oil output needed to boost government revenue, improve foreign exchange earnings and strengthen Nigeria’s position in the global oil market.

The experts stated that efforts should also be intensified to complete some planned oil and gas projects, including Bonga North, Southwest/Aparo, Zabazaba, and Etan, in order to enhance Nigeria’s oil output.