The importation of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, by oil marketers increased sharply in March 2026, surging by about 96.7 per cent compared to February, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

Latest data from the regulator’s March 2026 fact sheet obtained by our correspondent on Tuesday showed that petrol import volumes climbed from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, reflecting renewed reliance on foreign supply amid shifting domestic dynamics.

The report read, “Petrol import volumes rose significantly in March from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March.”

At the same time, the NMDPRA said local supply is gradually improving. This growth is being driven by domestic refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is quickly becoming a major player in the market.

It said domestic petrol supply rose significantly from 30.5 million litres per day to 34.2 million litres per day, underscoring growing contributions from local refining capacity.

Overall, total daily petrol supply increased marginally from 39.5 million litres to 40.1 million litres during the period under review.

An analysis of the figures indicates that while imports nearly doubled within the month, domestic supply still accounted for the bulk of the market, reinforcing the increasing role of local refiners, particularly the Dangote refinery, as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream sector.

The refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 93.62 per cent in March 2026.

Data on the refinery’s performance showed that it produced 48.2 million litres per day of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) during the period, out of which 34.2 million litres per day was supplied to the domestic market.

This indicates that Dangote alone accounted for about 72.3 per cent of Nigeria’s total petrol consumption, estimated at 47.3 million litres per day in March, reinforcing its position as the single largest supplier of fuel in the country.

In the diesel segment, the refinery produced 16.5 million litres per day of Automotive Gas Oil, with 2.2 million litres per day distributed locally, while the rest was either exported or held for other uses.

The data also revealed a notable decline in petrol consumption, which dropped from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres per day in March, suggesting weaker demand due to the high pricing of petroleum products during the period.

Recall that the Dangote refinery increased its petrol price at least five times to N1,275 per litre in March.

Similarly, petrol stock sufficiency fell sharply from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, indicating tighter inventory levels despite increased imports.

The report also indicates growing concerns that the current days of petrol sufficiency may decline due to the limited number of import licences issued to marketers, raising fears of potential supply constraints.

Stakeholders warn that Nigeria could face fuel shortages if stock levels are not improved and supply buffers are not strengthened in the coming weeks.

This combination of rising imports, increasing domestic supply, and falling stock cover highlights ongoing adjustments in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.

The development comes against the backdrop of policy shifts by the NMDPRA regarding petrol import licences.

Earlier, the regulator had restricted the issuance of new import licences in a bid to prioritise locally refined products and support investments in domestic refining, particularly following the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery.

However, the authority later reinstated the issuance of import licences to oil marketers, citing the need to prevent supply disruptions and ensure energy security during the transition phase.

Further breakdown of the fact sheet showed that diesel (AGO) supply declined significantly from 24.4 million litres per day in February to 10.3 million litres per day in March, while LPG supply remained stable at 4.7 kilotonnes per day, with domestic contribution increasing.

Domestic gas supply also rose slightly from 4.771 billion standard cubic feet per day to 4.888 bscf/d, reflecting steady growth in the gas segment.

Commenting, oil marketers have called for liberalisation of the downstream sector, where other players with licences will be allowed to import more PMS, or petrol, into the country. National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, made his stance known while appearing as a guest on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday.

According to him, healthy competition in the downstream sector will further protect the country from petrol price shocks following the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has affected the importation of petrol into the country.

The crisis in the Middle East has seen petrol rise above N1,200 per litre locally. He argued that market liberalisation will create healthy competition among players and eventually lead to product affordability.

He said, “We do not want to recommend a total dependence on getting petroleum products from foreign countries. Importation should not be a permanent thing.

“Our position is that since we have a local refinery, such as the Dangote Refinery, which has helped advance the economy, there is still clearly a need to bring in additional product sources. This will help liberalise the market and ensure that it is competitive.

“The fact that we are depending on the Dangote Refinery today is a great pointer to where we can go. While we think that refining will increase in the country, temporarily, we should also allow imports to come in because that will help us to be able to compete favourably”.

Gillis-Harry faulted the recent position of the World Bank, which advised Nigeria to further deepen fuel importation.

In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, the World Bank dished out a clear set of policy actions centred on removing supply-side constraints, warning that without decisive intervention, inflationary pressures could intensify despite recent moderation.

The report identified restricted competition in the downstream petroleum sector and trade barriers on critical imports as key drivers of cost escalation across the economy. It recommended reinstating petrol import licences to reintroduce competition in the PMS market, where pricing pressures have intensified following the suspension of import permits earlier in the year.

According to the report, the absence of competitive supply has contributed to a situation where domestic petrol prices have risen above import parity levels.

As of March 2026, PMS prices stood at about N1,275 per litre locally, compared to an estimated import parity price of around N1,122 per litre, implying a cost differential of roughly 12 per cent.

“I do not accept everything that the World Bank advises. We have enough intellectuals in this country. We have very great financial minds and economists who can give Nigeria the direction we can drive. Not that we are an island, but most of these advices are tinted, in my own opinion,” the PETROAN Chair said.

Gillis-Harry faulted popular claims that the country risks falling prey to substandard imported products.

“This is not correct, although I won’t say that imported is better than locally refined products.

“Rather, I will say that imported products will go through the necessary check processes of the regulator to ensure that the quality is better. So, there will be no time that substandard products will be allowed into the system.

“Yes, there were times we suffered those kinds of challenges, but they are not permanent. I believe that NMDPRA has always risen to the occasion to make sure that those products are taken out of circulation or repaired immediately to meet up to the standard.

“PETROAN members do import. We also have receptacles for that huge quantity of refined products. For us, buying from Dangote is good, but having some alternatives is also helpful.

“Our members cut across all the stakeholders, whether major depot marketers or others. So, we import when the opportunity comes for those who have been given licences. And they won’t import substandard products. They must import what will be acceptable,” he noted.

He emphasised the importance of a liberalised downstream sector, adding that product affordability is key.

“We don’t want to depend on importation. We also want to support the local refinery, which is the Dangote Refinery. But while we are doing that, to ensure we don’t have difficulty in supplies, liberalisation will do a lot of good for us.

“If you have five suppliers, there will be competition and products will be affordable. Affordability is a good thing for Nigerians. Importation should not stop us from mounting pressure on NNPC to make our local refineries roar back to life. And we should also encourage more refiners like BUA and Azika so we can have multiple sources of products.

“We celebrate Dangote Refinery. We are so proud of Dangote Refinery. We are comfortable with him, but while we are comfortable with him, we should also think about the future. Liberalisation will be the focus to guarantee affordability,” he said.

Meanwhile, the regulator highlighted progress in refining projects, noting that the Waltersmith Refinery’s second train has commenced the introduction of hydrocarbons, signalling incremental expansion of Nigeria’s refining capacity.

The combined impact of the Dangote refinery’s operations and modular refinery expansions could significantly reduce Nigeria’s long-term dependence on imported fuel.

The March data reinforces the complexity of Nigeria’s downstream transition, where increased domestic refining capacity is beginning to reshape supply patterns, even as imports remain a critical buffer to ensure nationwide fuel availability.