Food security is under growing threat as the war in the Middle East disrupts global supply chains, the heads of the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group warned on Monday.

The three institutions met as part of a coordination group established in early April to strengthen their response to the energy and economic fallout of the conflict, saying the impact remains “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” with energy importers, particularly low-income countries, bearing the brunt.

The war has driven up prices of oil, gas and fertilisers, intensifying concerns about food security and job losses, while also eroding export revenues for some oil and gas producers in the Middle East.

“The situation remains very uncertain, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is yet to normalise,” the institutions said in a statement, noting that even if regular shipping flows resume, it would take time for global supplies of key commodities to return to pre-conflict levels.

They warned that fuel and fertiliser prices could remain elevated for an extended period due to infrastructure damage, with supply disruptions likely to create shortages of critical inputs across energy, food and industrial sectors.

The fallout from the war has also displaced people, disrupted employment, and reduced travel and tourism, effects that could take time to reverse, the statement added.

The meeting comes ahead of the release of key reports, including the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, both due on Tuesday, 14 April.

The institutions said they had shared updated assessments and discussed conditions in the countries most affected, as well as policy responses.

Their teams are working closely at both global and country levels to provide coordinated support, including tailored policy advice and, in the case of the IMF and World Bank, financial assistance where necessary.

“We will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries,” the statement said, adding that coordination would extend to other international organisations to support a recovery that delivers stability, growth and jobs.

Recent data underscore the mounting pressure on global food systems. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said global food commodity prices rose for a second consecutive month in March, driven largely by higher energy costs linked to escalating conflict in the Near East.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 128.5 points in March, up 2.4 per cent from February and 1.0 per cent higher than a year earlier.

“Price indices across all commodity groups, such as cereals, meat, dairy, vegetable oils, and sugar, rose to varying degrees, reflecting not only underlying market fundamentals but also responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East,” the agency said, noting that while prices remain below the peak reached in March 2022, they are trending upward again.

Vegetable oil prices recorded one of the sharpest increases, rising 5.1 per cent month-on-month and standing 13.2 per cent above their level a year earlier, as higher crude oil prices boosted demand for biofuel feedstocks. Sugar prices also surged 7.2 per cent, driven by expectations that Brazil would divert more sugarcane towards ethanol production.

Cereal prices rose more modestly, with wheat prices climbing on concerns over drought in the United States and reduced planting expectations in Australia, while maize prices edged higher amid strong global supply. Rice prices, however, declined 3.0 per cent, reflecting weaker import demand and currency pressures in several importing countries.

Animal product markets showed mixed trends. Meat prices rose slightly, supported by higher pig meat prices in the European Union and tighter cattle supply in Brazil, while dairy prices increased on seasonal supply constraints in Oceania.

Máximo Torero warned that continued instability in the Middle East could further disrupt global food systems, particularly if energy supply routes are affected.

“If the conflict continues, it could eventually hit the supply of essential staples and push global prices higher,” he said, stressing the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global fuel and fertiliser flows.

He added that countries already burdened by high debt face the greatest risks, as rising import costs could force governments to cut food purchases or shift to lower-quality supplies, worsening food insecurity.

To cushion the impact, the FAO called for a multi-layered policy response, including securing alternative trade routes for agricultural inputs, protecting humanitarian supply chains and strengthening social safety nets. Over the longer term, it urged greater investment in storage and transport infrastructure, as well as more efficient fertiliser use to bolster resilience against future shocks.