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General News of Tuesday, 27 September 2022


2023: How Peter Obi is shattering Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso's calculations, statistics

Peter Obi Peter Obi

Statistics have it that by the way Obi is trending on social media and the rising number of his supporters across Nigeria, he is already disrupting permutations ahead of the coming presidential election.

In fact, there is a basis to believe that Obi's growing popularity brings him shoulder-to-shoulder with candidates like Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP).

Resultantly, there might just be a tie in the election which could force INEC to declare the poll inconclusive eventually.

The analysis of the poll goes thus:

Peter Obi

From available data collected by experts, there is a chance that Obi will win the entire southeast with an average of 60%, added to the fact that he is trending at 30 to 40% in the south-south, 20 to 30% in the southwest, and 30% in the north-central. However, the former Anambra governor he is below five percent in the northeast and northwest combined. Generally, this implies that Obi is on his way to claiming decisive votes from Tinubu and Atiku, as well as disrupting their calculations.

Atiku Abubakar

The former vice president is currently trending with 20 to 25% in the southeast, 40 to 50% in the south-south, 20 to 30% in the southwest, 30 to 40% in the northwest, and 40 to 50% in the northeast. In the north-central, he ranks as high as 30%.

Bola Ahmed

Bola Tinubu In his base (southwest), Tinubu is naturally trending at 50 to 60%, while he stands at 10 to 15% in the south-south and five percent in the southeast where calls for Igbo presidency are loudest.

Meanwhile, Jagaban is doing 30 to 40% in the north-central, 40% in the northwest, and 30 to 40% in the northeast. Rabiu Kwankwaso Known to be very influential in the north, the NNPP's presidential candidate, Kwankwaso, is trending at 50% in Kano, a critical state in the northwest; 30% in Tarab; around 10-15% in all of the northern region, and less than five percent in the south.

The foregoing shows that except the trends change, none among the candidates may sustain 25% of votes in 24 states on the first ballot, a situation that will necessitate the declaration of the election as being inconclusive by INEC.

But most field reporters favour the notion that Obi will emerge the winner of the much-talked-about presidential poll as he is taking votes away from Atiku and Tinubu in the northwest and northeast.

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