AFCON 2023: Artificial Intelligence predicts teams most likely to reach the final in Ivory Coast

Could Senegal become only the fourth nation to win back-to-back titles at the Africa Cup of Nations?

The Lions of Teranga have already touched down in Ivory Coast for the continental tournament, where they will seek to retain the trophy won at the previous edition.

However, Senegal will not have an easy path to repeated success, with 23 other African football heavyweights prepared to seize glory at AFCON 2023.

Despite the long road until the latest winner is crowned, Opta's supercomputer has listed the favourites to claim continental top honours come February 11.

Several factors were explained to have been considered in the AI's analysis algorithm while coming up with a nation’s chances of winning the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations.

The model estimates the probability based on the team’s strength, recent performances, potential knockout stage games, and the difficulty of a team’s path to the final.

Senegal has been given a 21.7% chance of reaching the AFCON final. The Lions of Teranga also have the highest odds of winning the trophy (12.8%), as cited by the BBC.

This is closely followed by host nation Ivory Coast, who have been given a 19.9% chance of making the final and a 12.1% chance of winning their first title since 2015.

The top five teams predicted to go all the way to the final are rounded off by North African nations Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt - 19.3%, 17.4%, and 16% respectively.

The full list of Opta's AI AFCON predictions

The full top 10, as predicted by Opta's AI to win AFCON, looks like this:

Senegal - 12.8%, Ivory Coast - 12.1%, Morocco - 11.1%, Algeria - 9.7%, Egypt - 8.5%, Nigeria - 8.1%, Cameroon - 7.4%, Tunisia - 6.3%, Ghana - 5.3%, Mali - 3.7%.

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Who will win the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations?

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its 2023 AFCON predictions as tournament hosts Ivory Coast look to dethrone reigning champions Senegal.#TotalEnergiesAFCON2023 | @CAF_Online

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 9, 2024

The responses to Opta's post on X have been mixed.

@Carticort commented:

"The people who do these predictions don't know ball man."
@JayJaySey took a swipe at the Black Stars:

"Ghana should be at the bottom of the list. Bad leaders, tactically inept coach and lack or proper organization."