Anambra on the march again

All eyes are on Anambra State, where a governorship election is scheduled to take place in November. The contest is expected to be a dress rehearsal for the next general elections in 2023. As witnessed in previous elections, numerous political parties are expected to field candidates for the election, but it is likely to be a three-horse race involving the three major parties in the state.

Essentially, the contest would witness the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) trying to fend off competition from the main opposition party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling party at the centre, the All Progressives Congress (APC). So far, the three parties have been trying to outdo each other in the battle for supremacy in the media; with each of them boasting that the election would be in their favour.

In politics, it is said that the odds usually favour the ruling party in elections because it would have achievements to showcase and the incumbent would also have an advantage of campaigning ahead of the official flag-off of the exercise, at the expense of the taxpayers. In the same vein, opposition parties seldom win elections, based solely on the strength of their electioneering campaign promises.

Rather, it is the ruling parties that pave the way for the opposition to triumph, when the electorate is disenchanted about their performance. Against this background, the APGA remains the party to beat in Anambra. In the last election, almost four years ago, it secured a landslide victory by winning in all the 21 local government areas.

This time around, it may be a different story, since the governor is not qualified to recontest; having served the maximum two terms allowed by the constitution. In other words, it would be a more open and competitive race and any of the three parties that are better prepared for the election has a chance to win it.

Some of the factors that will influence the outcome of the governorship contest are the sentiment about power rotation or zoning; the state of the nation or the general atmosphere of insecurity in the country; finance; the reach of the political godfathers; the economy, as well as a party’s grassroots structures.

Going by the rotation arrangement that has subsisted over the years, there is a strong sentiment for power to shift to Anambra South. Four years ago, the rotation favoured Anambra North because the general feeling among the electorate was that the zone should be allowed to complete its eight years in office, as the incumbent Governor Willie Obiano hails from that senatorial district. This was a strong factor that gave APGA victory in the last governorship election.  The campaign mantra of the ruling party was, “Let Anambra North finish its eight years, then power will shift to Anambra South”. The voters keyed in and all other political permutations became irrelevant or secondary.

Today, opinions are divided over zoning in this year’s governorship election. It remains the major campaign weapon for the ruling party, which is insisting that Anambra South should be accorded the privilege of producing the next governor, for equity and fairness. The party’s major candidates are from Anambra South. The PDP and the APC, however, are still in a dilemma and have not made their position on the issue clear. Other stakeholders believe that the rotational arrangement has moved a full circle since the creation of the new Anambra State in August 1991. The first governor of the state, Chukwuemeka Ezeife, who hails from Igbo-Ukwu, Aguata Local Government Area, in Anambra South, was on the saddle for almost two years during the aborted Third Republic, between January 1992 and November 1993.

It was also Anambra South that took the first shot when the country returned to civilian rule in 1999, when Chinwoke Mbadinuju, who is from that zone governed the state from May 1999 to May 2003. Anambra Central, which appears to be the dominant zone politically has clocked at least 10 years. Chris Ngige who hails from the zone had served for two years before the Supreme Court nullified his election in August 2005. With Peter Obi’s two terms of four years each, Anambra Central has completed 10 years since 1999.

The quest to zone the governorship seat to Anambra North in 2013 was an emotive one because the district had not produced a governor since the creation of the state. By the time Governor Obiano completes his second term on January 17, 2022, the zone would have completed eight years and the three districts would have had the chance to govern the state at one point or the other. It is against this background that some stakeholders are saying the governorship ticket should be thrown open to all aspirants from the three-zone, to ensure that the best candidate gets the job.

So far, it is only the APGA that has come out openly to state that it would adhere to power rotation in choosing its flag bearer. Though it is yet to come out with a position on the issue, the APC may not respect the arrangement. For the PDP, it is becoming certain that leaders of the party do not have plans of sticking to it. This is perhaps based on the fact Anambra Central, which accounts for about 60 per cent of registered voters in the state, is perceived as the stronghold of the main opposition.

The insecurity in the country may ruin the chances of the APC. As the ruling party at the centre, its handling of the insecurity would be a major issue during the campaign. The worsening security situation in the Southeast has been attributed to the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Its campaign is based on the perceived marginalisation of the region under the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. The people of the Southeast may not subscribe to the confrontational posture of the IPOB, but it enjoys some sympathy in the state, like elsewhere in the region; no thanks to the attitude of the federal security forces in the region, which behaves like an army of occupation, instead of one deployed to protect the people.

Four years ago, the group asked the people of Anambra to boycott the governorship election, but they defied the order. The election recorded only 22 per cent turnout; less than a quarter of the total number of registered voters. But, the low turnout may not have anything to do with the IPOB threat, because the state has consistently recorded low turnouts in elections over the years.

Another factor is the amount of money that would be available to each candidate for the campaign. This factor cannot be over-emphasised with the popularity vote-buying is assuming in Nigerian elections in recent times. Incidentally, many of the aspirants vying for the ticket of the APC and the PDP are people with deep pockets that can bankroll the election.

The influence of godfathers appears to be waning in Anambra politics. In the past, the state used to be a case study when it comes to the ugly side of that trend, particularly during the Fourth Republic.

Going by the results of previous elections, the three parties have good chances of winning the election. Four years ago, APGA won the election with a landslide. The APC flag bearer, Tony Nwoye, came second, while the PDP’s Oseloka Obaze followed the APC candidate closely. Incidentally, Nwoye has returned to the PDP.

Indeed, he is one of the five major aspirants seeking the party’s ticket. In the last general elections, the PDP performed better than the APC and the APGA. The party won two of the three senatorial seats and seven of the 11 seats in the House of Representatives. APGA won the remaining four seats in the House of Representatives, while the APC did not win any seat. Be that as it may, the PDP’s performance might not be unconnected with the fact that former Governor Obi was the vice-presidential candidate of the party in the last general elections.