Decline in new coronavirus cases not end of pandemic - NCDC cautions

The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has cautioned the public that the recent decline in number of confirmed cases and deaths from the novel Coronavirus does not mean the pandemic has come to an end.

Director-General of NCDC, Dr Chikwe Ihekweazu, said the low Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) or rather death rate of COVID-19 patients in Nigeria is because majority of those infected in the country are between the ages of 31 and 40.

He added that, the said experience has shown gaps in legislation for health security in Nigeria, explaining that Nigeria is not part of global destination for clinical trials of progressive vaccines, like South Africa and Egypt.

He stressed that contrary to some reports that hydroxychloroquine is not recommended for the treatment of COVID-19, the Centre has not dropped the age-old drug, but rather advises the use only in clinical trials, saying COVID-19 has provided opportunity for the rapid scaling up of public health laboratory, emergency preparedness and response capacity.

The NCDC boss said a combination of public health and social measures can only provide 100 per cent effectiveness in the control of the spread of the pandemic with the compliance of Nigerians.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by a virus that had never been identified in humans prior to December last year. This means that we are really starting from ground zero to understand the virus and its characteristics, mode of spread, preventive measures, etc.

“In the absence of a vaccine, the world is at risk of continuous transmission. For now, we have to depend on a combination of public health and social measures that do not provide 100 per cent effectiveness. The success of these measures does not only depend on the effectiveness of the measures themselves, but on compliance by the people.

“Scientists across the world, including in Nigeria, are working very hard to ensure that we have a better understanding of how to control this pandemic as quickly as possible. It is not an easy task and requires patience as we go through systematic scientific processes. But irrespective of the success of science in developing a vaccine, ultimate control will depend on the behaviour of people,” he told the The Guardian when he was asked if the pandemic is now under control in the country.

Ihekweazu continued: “It is still too early to interpret a decline in new cases as flattening the curve. We are learning from countries in Europe and other parts of the world that a decline in new cases does not translate to being at the end of the pandemic.

“In most of these countries, they have begun to record an increase in cases again. In other cases, the virus has continued to spread, but not exponentially. We are proud of the leadership of the Lagos State Government in responding to this outbreak, but will not relent in our response activities.

“Although Lagos State is the epicentre of the outbreak in Nigeria, various states are at different phases of the outbreak. In some states, we are recording an increase in cases. We are only as strong as our weakest link and will continue to maintain momentum in the response, despite the decline in the number of new cases recorded.”

Asked what NCDC, Lagos State and indeed the country have done well to achieve the decline, the epidemiologist said:

“The Lagos State Government has shown very strong leadership in the response. We supported the state in activating testing capacity in four public health laboratories, including NCDC’s Central Public Health Laboratory. The State Government has also approved the inclusion of seven private sector laboratories to support testing.

“In addition, we worked with the World Health Organisation (WHO) to support Lagos State in establishing sample collection centres in priority Local Government Area (LGAs) to enable increased demand and access to testing. These efforts have really helped us scale-up testing in the state.

“Also, the state has promoted public health and social measures, including the enforcement of use of facemasks, closure of large gatherings, etc. An NCDC Rapid Response Team has been supporting the Lagos State Ministry of Health since the beginning of the response. We will continue to sustain these efforts, so that we do not lose the gains that we have made so far. The ultimate control of this outbreak will depend on the behaviour of people.”