Nigeria’s downstream oil sector is heading for a major reset as local refineries prepare to significantly cut petrol imports in 2026, driven by rising output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and growing contributions from modular plants nationwide.

Industry operators say the country already has enough installed refining capacity to meet domestic petrol demand, provided persistent challenges around crude oil supply and regulatory processes are resolved.

If these bottlenecks ease, Nigeria could sharply reduce its dependence on imported PMS and deal a major blow to fuel importers.

Domestic capacity grows, Imports still dominate

NMDPRA Data shows that petrol imports still dominated Nigeria’s fuel supply in 2025, despite the gradual ramp-up of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.

Out of the total national petrol consumption of 18.97 billion litres last year, oil marketing companies imported 11.85 billion litres, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the supply. Domestic refineries supplied about 7.54 billion litres, or 37.53 per cent.

According to the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, these figures understate the country’s true refining potential.

The association maintains that local plants, led by Dangote, can fully supply Nigeria’s petrol needs if crude feedstock is consistently made available.

Crude supply, not capacity, is the real problem

CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, said refinery underperformance has little to do with technical capability and more to do with unreliable crude oil supply.

He disclosed that while the Dangote refinery is currently producing around 50 million litres of petrol daily, many modular refineries are operating at less than 10 per cent of installed capacity.

Some plants shut down intermittently due to prolonged feedstock shortages.

“Installed capacity is not the issue. Feedstock availability has always been the challenge,” Idoko said, noting that several operators are forced to source crude externally or scale back production because of inconsistent supply arrangements.

He added that uncertainty over crude access has discouraged investment in new refinery projects, as lenders now demand long-term supply guarantees before committing financing.

Import volumes are already falling

Industry data suggests the shift is already underway. Imported petrol volumes fell from 52.1 million litres per day in November to 42.2 million litres per day in December.

During the same period, Dangote refinery’s daily supply rose sharply from 19.5 million litres to 32 million litres.

The refinery has since commenced night-time loading operations, with deliveries now exceeding 50 million litres per day nationwide.

Nigeria’s peak petrol demand is estimated at 54 million litres per day, leaving little room for imports if local production is fully optimised.

2026: Turning point for fuel imports

CORAN projects that domestically refined petroleum products could overtake imports in 2026 if the government improves crude allocation to local refineries, supports financing for operators, and adopts more accurate production tracking beyond truck-out figures.

For Nigeria, the shift promises lower foreign exchange pressure, improved energy security, and a more stable fuel supply.

For fuel importers, however, the coming year may mark the beginning of shrinking margins and declining relevance in a market increasingly dominated by local refining power.