The World Bank has issued a stark warning regarding the stability of the global food system, noting that despite an adequate volume of total supplies, deep vulnerabilities persist across the globe.

In its latest June 2026 Food & Nutrition Security Update, the institution highlighted a volatile mix of surging input costs, geopolitical friction, and looming climate threats that risk reversing years of progress in poverty reduction.

“Global food and nutrition security remains fragile,” the World Bank stated in its assessment. “Global food supplies remain broadly adequate… but higher costs and supply chain disruptions continue to put pressure on prices, while production of major cereals is expected to decline from 2025 record levels.”

A primary driver of the current instability is the volatile international fertiliser market. Over the first five months of 2026, fertiliser prices jumped 35 per cent compared to the same period last year. Although prices have eased slightly in recent weeks, economists warn that the damage to upcoming harvests may already be done due to reduced fertiliser applications by farmers earlier in the planting season.

Compounding these supply chain issues is the rapidly growing threat of severe weather patterns. Meteorologists and agricultural analysts are particularly focused on the high probability of an impending El Niño cycle, which could decimate crop yields in highly vulnerable regions.

“There is a 61 to 87 per cent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and persisting into 2027,” the report noted. “If realised, rice output could fall by 20 to 50 per cent in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed, further deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable countries.”

The report paints a complex picture of domestic food price inflation, which remains moderately high worldwide. While inflationary pressures have shown slight improvements in high-income and upper-middle-income nations, low-income countries are experiencing a distinct deterioration. The share of low-income countries suffering from food inflation above five per cent rose from 40 per cent to 45 per cent between April and May 2026.

The human toll of these converging factors is most severe in conflict-ridden and climate-stressed zones. In East Africa, an estimated 44 million to 47 million people are currently in urgent need of food assistance, with active famine conditions confirmed in parts of Sudan and credible famine risks looming in Somalia. Meanwhile, Latin America and West Africa face their own localised crises.

“Global food and nutrition security is becoming more fragile, as geopolitical shocks, climate risks, and rising input costs converge to strain food systems and household resilience,” the World Bank warned, pointing to a projected 38 per cent rise in overall fertiliser prices for the year. “These pressures risk reversing gains in poverty reduction and food security, particularly in low-income countries and fragile settings.”

As the world heads into the latter half of 2026, the international community faces growing pressure to implement targeted support, early warning drought systems, and contingency planning to prevent localised supply strains from spiralling into widespread humanitarian crises.