Power generation in Nigeria remains below expectations two weeks after the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, assured citizens of improved electricity supply, as ongoing gas shortages, load rejection, and infrastructure challenges continue to strain the national grid, reports DARE OLAWIN

Power generation in Nigeria remains below expected levels, despite Adelabu assuring an end to outages within two weeks. Although there have been slight gains, supply has largely stayed between 3,000 and 4,000 megawatts, leaving many households and businesses without electricity and raising doubts about the feasibility of the minister’s timeline.

Checks by our correspondent revealed that though marginal improvement had been reported in a few places, many Nigerians are still in darkness, hoping for a time when power would be restored in their areas.

Recall that Nigerians have been thrown into darkness in the past weeks due to gas shortages. Power distribution companies have repeatedly apologised to their customers, pledging them reliefs that were not forthcoming.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Joy Ogaji, said the gas companies have told GenCos that they would no longer supply gas to thermal plants unless payments were made.

Apologising for the erratic power supply two weeks ago at a press conference in Abuja, Adelabu said, “I want to apologise to Nigerians, officially now, coming from me as the minister of power, for this temporary issue that is leading to hardship being experienced, especially during this dry season, where there is so much heat everywhere.

“Businesses are being affected, schools have been affected, and industries have been affected. It is not our wish to find ourselves in this situation, but it is due to some factors that are actually beyond our control.”

The minister assured Nigerians that relief was imminent, giving a two-week timeline for improvement in supply.

“I can tell you, with the committee that we have set up, commitments from gas suppliers, and the timeline for the repair of the gas pipelines, two weeks from now, we should start seeing improvements in supply. Two weeks!” Adelabu stressed.

However, as the two-week timeline ended, our correspondent observed that power supply is still not at the level it used to be in 2025.

As of Wednesday morning, the 11 DisCos were struggling to distribute 3,500 megawatts to their customers across the country. While this is an improvement compared to when the DisCos had to share 2,900MW, many Nigerians said they have yet to feel the impact of the minister’s promise. Real-time power generation has been hovering between 3,000MW and 4,000MW, a sharp drop from the over 5,000MW recorded in 2025.

It was also observed that the DisCos picked less than what was generated by the grid. Recently, power generation companies accused the DisCos of deliberately rejecting electricity load allocations, resulting in heavy financial losses to the sector. In an interview with The PUNCH, the GenCos said that though there were gas shortages resulting in reduced power generation from thermal plants, DisCos were also rejecting the little being generated by the GenCos. However, the DisCos declared that they could only pick up power transmitted to areas where they could sell it and make money.

APGC CEO Ogaji told our correspondent that there were times the system operator asked GenCos to reduce their outputs because the DisCos were rejecting load.

“DisCos are not taking load; hence, there is high frequency,” Ogaji said, confirming that the gas situation was not the only problem responsible for the current low power supply, as the DisCos’ load rejection contributed to the current outages.

According to her, the average power generation figure in January was 4,541 megawatts, while stranded power during the same period was 2985MW. In February, average generation was 4,218MW, out of which 3,274MW were not picked. Ogaji said Nigeria has 30 power plants with an installed capacity of 15,500 megawatts. Out of this, GenCos can only make 7,000MW available, but the transmission company and the DisCos can off-take just 4,000MW. This, she said, resulted in billions of losses to power producers.

Speaking further, she said, “We have 30 power plants that are grid-connected. The 30 are on the grid. All of them put together have an installed capacity of 15,500MW. Out of the 15,500MW, because of the huge debt owed to the GenCos, the GenCos can only make 7,000MW available.

Out of the 7,000MW they are making available, the DisCos and transmission can take just between 4,000MW and 4,500MW since 2013 till now.”

According to her, power generation remains abysmally low because the transmission and distribution capacity is still low. “Do not mind all the stories we are hearing that the transmission company can transmit 8,000MW and distribution companies can distribute 6,000MW,” she said, challenging the Transmission Company of Nigeria and the DisCos to prove the capacity being declared in the media.

But operators in the power distribution arm of the business, who spoke with our correspondent in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, said they were not to blame for load rejection. The operators said DisCos reject load due to an inefficient transmission system.

“Between the GenCos and the DisCos, is there no transmission? And if you are the DisCo and I am the transmission, do you not have the right to tell me where you want your load to be taken to? If I dump it where you do not want it, will you accept it?

“You want your load in Magboro, but I could not move it there; on my way from Ibadan, I decided to dump it at Sagamu Interchange. Will you accept that? No, you will not! That is the same analogy,” an operator said.

Recently, the Transmission Company of Nigeria boasted that TCN had progressively expanded its wheeling capacity to a verified 8,700MW. It knocked the Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company over claims on the nation’s transmission capacity, describing figures cited by the DisCo as inaccurate and outdated.

PHEDC had posted that Nigeria has an installed generation capacity of 13,000MW, transmission wheeling capacity of 7,300MW, and operational capacity of about 4,000MW to 5,000MW, noting that it is entitled to 6.3 per cent of the daily allocation.

Reacting, the TCN said the daily output on the national grid is determined by what distribution companies nominate, what generation companies declare they can generate, and what they can wheel, noting that penalties apply if any of the players fail to meet declared capacities.

TCN queried whether distribution companies nominate power beyond the 4,000MW to 5,000MW range, urging PHEDC to verify its information before making public statements. Providing updated figures, TCN said its verified transmission wheeling capacity stands at 8,700MW, stressing that the 7,300MW cited by PHEDC was outdated.

“The fact is that 8,700MW is the simulated capacity by the Independent System Operator when it was still part of TCN. Through sustained, capital-intensive infrastructure investments, including transformer installations, substation construction, and transmission line reconductoring, among others, TCN has progressively expanded its wheeling capacity to a verified 8,700MW. This figure is a matter of public record and reflects TCN’s ongoing commitment to strengthening Nigeria’s grid infrastructure. 7,300MW cited by PHEDC is outdated and no longer representative of TCN’s current capacity,” the statement noted.

While the back and forth was going on, Nigerian homes and businesses were waiting for the government’s promise of a reliable power supply. As the disagreements among generation, transmission, and distribution operators persist, the expected relief from improved electricity supply has yet to materialise for many Nigerians. With generation still fluctuating below previous levels and structural challenges unresolved, households and businesses remain uncertain about when the promised stability will be achieved, underscoring the urgent need for coordinated action across the power value chain.