Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM Academy, has predicted potential economic gains for net oil exporters like Nigeria, highlighting opportunities for currency appreciation amid the ongoing Middle East crisis.

Speaking in an interview, Otunuga said higher oil prices arising from the conflict could benefit Nigeria, a net oil exporter.

“Higher oil prices should translate to currency gains,” he noted, while cautioning that global risk-off sentiment from the Iran conflict may offset some of the upside.

He explained that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving concerns over supply shocks, pushing oil benchmarks toward triple-digit levels. Brent and Crude oil are expected to remain fundamentally bullish, with $100 a key psychological threshold.

Otunuga also highlighted that oil benchmarks are tracking their strongest monthly gains since 1990.

The FXTM official warned that the Iran conflict may trigger risk aversion, driving demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. Oil price volatility could also impact Japan, which imports nearly 90 percent of its crude from the Middle East.

Reflecting on recent market movements, Otunuga said tensions escalated after Iran accused the US of preparing for a potential land assault, even as Donald Trump sought talks to end the conflict.

Market optimism briefly returned after reports of Trump signaling willingness to end the war, but uncertainty from mixed messages and the ongoing Strait closure may continue to fuel volatility.

Gold has declined nearly 14 percent this month despite risk-off sentiment, pressured by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for US rate cuts. Otunuga added that the upcoming March US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key gauge of labor market health, influencing Federal Reserve policy amid rising energy prices. Markets expect 65,000 jobs created in March, improving on February’s -92,000.

Technical levels also remain critical, with gold’s $4,600 mark serving as a pivot toward $4,700–$4,800, while weakness below it could push prices to $4,450–$4,300. The USD/JPY pair recently crossed above 160 for the first time since July 2024, a level historically defended by Japan’s government. Otunuga warned that potential intervention could trigger aggressive sell-offs.

He concluded that while opportunities exist for currency gains and market optimism, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty demand caution from investors.