Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, as the pace of increase in food prices slowed significantly during the month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The NBS disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, released on Monday. The latest figure represents a 0.04 percentage-point decline from the 15.43 per cent recorded in July and a substantial moderation from 23.14 per cent in August 2025.

The report read, “In August 2026, the headline inflation rate stood at 15.39 per cent, down from 15.43 per cent in July 2026 and stood at 23.14 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (August 2025).”

However, the Organised Private Sector described Nigeria’s marginal decline in headline inflation in August as “as good as not dropping”, warning that worsening energy prices and the ongoing Middle East crisis could further raise inflationary pressures.

Despite the moderation in the annual rate, the Consumer Price Index, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, increased to 146.3 points in August from 145.3 points in July.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation slowed considerably to 0.71 per cent in August from 1.57 per cent in July, indicating that consumer prices continued to rise but at a slower pace.

The bureau explained, “This means that in August 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in July 2026.”

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to annual inflation, accounting for 6.16 percentage points. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.99 percentage points, followed by transport at 1.64 points and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.30 points.

Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August, compared with 25.30 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025. More significantly, food inflation slowed sharply on a monthly basis to 1.02 per cent from 5.56 per cent in July.

According to the report, “This shows that the average prices of food items are increasing at a decreasing rate in August 2026.”

The NBS attributed the moderation mainly to changes in the average prices of palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey meat, among others.

OPS reacts

In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, OPS leaders, including the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the latest decline was too marginal to signal a significant improvement in inflationary pressures. He said the stability of the foreign exchange market might have supported the moderation but warned that rising energy costs posed a major threat to the outlook.

Yusuf said, “What we have now, well, it’s as good as saying that nothing much has changed. But quite frankly, from this September going forward, unless something drastically changes, I don’t see inflation moderating. Because energy is at the heart of everything.”

He warned that rising crude oil prices and escalating disruptions in the Middle East could trigger further increases in domestic energy and consumer prices. Yusuf said petrol was already selling for about N1,035 per litre in some places and above N1,400 in Abuja, while diesel and gas prices were also rising.

Yusuf said the energy crisis would continue to affect transportation, production and business operations because of the economy’s dependence on petrol, diesel, gas and jet fuel. “Transportation, production, operation. And it goes across everything. Jet fuel, petrol, diesel, gas. It goes across. So, it’s a very bleak inflation outlook, you ask me,” he said.

The President, Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, also said the 15.39 per cent inflation rate failed to capture the economic pressures facing businesses and households. He argued that policymakers should measure economic progress by its impact on productivity, household welfare and the cost of doing business.

Egbesola said, “The 15.39 per cent inflation recorded in August is not reflective of the business environment. It’s not reflective of the livelihood of the people. It’s not reflected in the kitchen. It’s not reflected in households.”

He warned that higher fuel prices could reverse the marginal improvement in inflation in the coming months, as petroleum products remain a major driver of prices across the economy. Egbesola said, “Now, the price of fuel has gone up, definitely in a few weeks’ time. I’m sure the next inflation report will also show an upward trend, because fuel or petroleum products is one of the major drivers of inflation.”

He said the government should stop celebrating falling inflation figures without ensuring that the gains translate into better living conditions. “What is the value of an inflation that is decreasing and the companies, manufacturers are dying? What is the value when households cannot feed three square meals a day?” Egbesola said.

Egbesola also called for the redistribution of government revenue through investments in education, healthcare, electricity, roads and compressed natural gas infrastructure. He said such interventions would help businesses and households withstand rising petroleum prices and ensure that the gains from improved government revenue reached ordinary Nigerians.

Further breakdown

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also moderated to 13.29 per cent year-on-year from 22.93 per cent in August 2025. On a monthly basis, core inflation turned negative at -0.06 per cent, compared with 0.15 per cent in July.

However, inflationary pressures varied considerably across the country. Urban inflation stood at 15.88 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was lower at 14.23 per cent. Rural prices, however, rose faster during the month, with month-on-month inflation climbing to 1.79 per cent from 0.78 per cent in July, while urban monthly inflation slowed to 0.28 per cent from 1.90 per cent.

At state level, Lagos recorded the highest headline inflation rate at 23.68 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 22.56 per cent and Enugu at 22.06 per cent. Sokoto recorded the lowest at 2.11 per cent.

Food inflation was highest in Adamawa at 38.85 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 per cent and Bayelsa at 36.20 per cent. The NBS, however, cautioned that differences in consumption patterns and CPI weights make direct interstate comparisons potentially misleading.