IMF predicts $200bn losses for Nigeria, others in 2020

The International Monetary Fund - IMF has predicted that Nigeria other countries in sub-Saharan Africa will record losses of about $200bn in incomes by the end of 2020 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is coming after precious prediction by the IMF which projected that the economies of Sub-Saharan African countries would contract by 1.6 per cent this year.

The projected 1.6 per cent contraction which was contained in the latest Regional Economic Outlook is the worst reading on record for the region.

The projected $200bn loss in income for Nigeria and other countries in the region was disclosed in a podcast posted on IMF website on Tuesday.

In the podcast by Papa N’Diaye, Head of the Regional Studies Division in IMF’s African Department, noted that the region was “facing unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to reverse much of the development progress it has made in recent years”.

Ndiaye, who heads the research team that worked on the Regional Economic Outlook, observed that at the end of 2020, countries in the region would face income losses of about $200bn relative to what they were expecting six months ago.

“There will be large income losses from this crisis. By the end of 2020 the region will face income losses of about $200bn relative to what they were expecting six months ago,” Ndiaye said.

“We are expecting incomes to be four per cent below what they were six months ago,” he added.

The IMF official pointed out that Sub-Saharan African countries were making tremendous progress towards achieving sustainable economic development before the outbreak of the pandemic.

He noted that several countries in the region recorded an increase in per capita income and life expectancy, among other indices.

Ndiaye also observed that the countries had agreed on the African Continental Free Trade Area, an arrangement which would facilitate regional trade integration.

He expressed regrets that the implementation of the ACFTA “which promised to be a game-changer” had been delayed by the pandemic.

“We hope it (delay) is temporary,” he added, noting that the ACFTA would increase income in the region.

Ndiaye warned that failure to contain the spread of the virus in the region would have catastrophic economic, health and humanitarian consequences.

“Failing to contain the outbreak will stretch weak health systems and lead to catastrophic economic, health and humanitarian consequences,” he said.

He observed that failure to check the spread of the disease could undermine progress recorded in other parts of the world.

Major oil producing countries, such as Nigeria and Angola, will suffer more losses, the IMF official said.

“The drop in oil prices is hitting the oil-exporting countries like Nigeria and Angola.

“It is having a big impact and not just in terms of growth, they will suffer a sharp decline in terms of revenue.

“They have limited fiscal space and will need the support of the international community,” he observed.

Although he admitted that countries in the region that import oil will benefit from the fall in oil prices, Ndiaye pointed out that “no country will be spared” the negative economic consequences of the pandemic.

Punch