Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 14.63 percent in September 2026, down from 15.39 percent recorded in August, driven largely by a moderation in staple food prices.

The official Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline in headline inflation since June. On a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis, headline inflation dropped by 6.35 percentage points compared to the 20.98 percent recorded in September 2025.

However, the NBS report highlighted a divergence in underlying price trends, as a drop in agricultural produce costs masked rising core inflation across non-food goods and services.

Key Metrics Breakdown

1. Food Inflation (Month-on-Month Decline)
Year-on-Year Rate: Stood at 19.59 percent in September 2026, down from 20.16 percent in September 2025.
JPG

Month-on-Month Trend: Food inflation plunged to -1.55 percent from 1.02 percent in August, reflecting price drops in local staples including local rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, onions, palm oil, potatoes, okra, tomatoes, and plantains.
JPG

12-Month Average: The average annual food inflation rate fell to 15.72 percent from 28.37 percent in September 2025.
JPG

2. Core Inflation (Renewed Pressure)
Year-on-Year Rate: Settled at 12.95 percent in September 2026, down significantly from 22.11 percent in September 2025.
JPG

Month-on-Month Trend: Core inflation—which excludes volatile energy and agricultural produce—rebounded to 1.11 percent from -0.06 percent in August, signaling renewed price pressures across manufactured goods and services.

12-Month Average: The annual average core inflation rate stood at 16.54 percent.

State-by-State Regional Disparities
The NBS report highlighted sharp regional variations in living costs across Nigeria.

Highest Headline Inflation: Imo State led nationwide headline inflation at 30.04 percent, followed by Enugu (22.38 percent) and Niger (22.05 percent). Taraba State recorded the lowest rate at 1.78 percent.

Highest Food Inflation: Lagos State recorded the highest food inflation rate at 34.40 percent, followed closely by Imo (33.79 percent) and Ondo (31.49 percent). Conversely, Taraba State recorded a negative food inflation rate of -7.47 percent.

The month-on-month decline in food prices coincides with the peak of the primary harvest season across key agricultural belts in West Africa, temporarily easing supply constraints for fresh produce.