Food insecurity and inflation in Nigeria

Food insecurity is a major problem in Nigeria. The Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, estimates that Nigeria’s food security situation has worsened in the past 15 years.

Trade liberalization stimulated the growth of export of agricultural commodities in Nigeria while its serious implementation lasted. As usual with the country, the implementation of trade liberalization policies relaxed with time. The boost in the agricultural export sector took a downturn and with the advent of democracy, massive imports of luxury goods began to dominate the economic scene.

In essence, over the last 15 years, that is, since 1986, when the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) came into being, the nation had witnessed a gross neglect of the food production sector.

In an agrarian economy, the land as a unit for agricultural production provides the needed fulcrum upon which a sustainable development would blossom. Agriculture has remained an important aspect of any economy. Viable agricultural programmes and activities in any polity are capable of sustaining the food supply and reserves needed for the welfare of the citizens. But in Nigeria, agriculture is despised as able bodied young people do not have interest in agriculture. Climate change and clashes between herdsmen and farmers, the activities of Boko Haram sect and the recent flood crisis have added to food insecurity challenges in the polity as population displacement, death, and non-cultivation of farmlands and the burning down of farm produce have reduced the quality and quantity of food demand.

That Nigeria faces problems with its food supply has been evident for some time now from its inflation numbers. Since March, the food inflation index, which stood at 23.12% on an annual basis in August, has trended northwards inexorably. This has meant a reduction in disposable incomes as we now spend more for the same calorie levels as we did before the year began. For the poor and vulnerable sectors of the economy, who spend more of their earnings on food, this has meant a reduction in calorific intake, as well as a general diminution in wealth.

Do we face a serious food insecurity problem? Both the International Monetary Fund and the World Food Programme think so. The latter actually puts the number at risk globally from food shortages and rising food prices this year at 345 million (from last year’s 193 million). In large part, this is because of Russian-Ukrainian war. Both countries lie at critical junctions in the global supply chain of critical staples and inputs in fertiliser production. It was important, therefore, that in July this year, the UN was able to broker a deal that allowed grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

However, Nigeria’s inflation rate hit a fresh 17-year high in September, stoked by a slide in the value of the naira that raised the cost of imported goods like gas and liquid fuel. Annual inflation accelerated to 20.8%, compared with 20.5% in August, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on its website on Monday October 17. That’s the highest level since September 2005. The median estimate of seven economists in a survey was 21%.

More importantly, beyond high prices of staple food items in Nigeria, drought and political situation in neighbouring countries like Chad, Cameroun and Niger seem to pose a threat to a state like Borno as they rely on the state for their food supplies. Another problem according to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, responsible for the food crisis in Nigeria is not unconnected with the fact that “Nigeria’s agriculture is mainly rain-fed and she has not taken full advantage of its irrigation potential estimated between two and 2.5 million hectares”. The area under irrigation is officially estimated at about 220,000 hectares or less than one per cent of the total areas under crops. The contribution of irrigated agriculture to crop production is, therefore, very small.

In contrast, while drought presents a major problem for the affordability and availability of food items, excessive rain has also contributed significantly to the current hike in food prices. Statistics from Gombe State alone as compiled by Gombe State Emergency Management Agency (GSEMA) show that about 999 farmlands in the state were affected by floods which destroyed yams, maize, vegetable, sugarcane and cassava farms years back, when data from other states are added together, no doubt, the ripple effect becomes staggering.

Whereas, climatic conditions favour the rising food prices, the deficiencies in the delivery of farm inputs also come to the fore as a major challenge to farmers. Another factor is the low usage of fertilizers, occasioned by using the poor level of availability resulting in low crop yield. The Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources has disclosed that current use of fertilizer is about 1,000,000 metric tonnes per annum, while the projected demand estimate is 3.7 million metric tonnes. While the “average worldwide rate is 93kg per hectare of NPK, the rate for Nigeria is around 13kg per hectare”.

Indeed, these are challenges threatening the food security of nations. While the federal government has instructed that the strategic grains reserve be released to ameliorate the scarcity and rising prices, Nigeria’s agriculture and water resources minister, has indicated that even this may have its shortcomings.

No doubt, one of the major objectives Nigerian state must pursue in this nascent democratic era is food security. A country that cannot formulate and effectively implement agricultural and food policies may find it difficult to use the citizens as catalyst for sustainable democracy. More so, the very survival of the state is linked to the ability of its economy to meet the material demands of both people and government.