Nigeria risks being left behind in the ongoing global energy transition if it fails to strategically monetise its oil and gas reserves.

This was stated by a former President of the Nigerian Economic Society, Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, who advocated a balanced deployment of renewables and conventional energy sources to provide electricity access to the 87 million Nigerians currently without energy security.

Speaking on Monday in Abuja at the 18th NAEE/International Association for Energy Economics Annual International Conference, Adenikinju, in his keynote address, said the global energy landscape has become increasingly complex and volatile, shaped by wars, artificial intelligence, and shifting geopolitical alliances.

The IAEE/NAEE conference, now in its 18th edition, brings together top policymakers, academics, and energy executives to discuss emerging issues in the global and African energy landscape.

This year’s theme, “Emerging Geopolitics of Energy: Navigating Global Shifts and Impact on Emerging Countries”, focused on the intersection of global politics, climate policies, and the future of developing economies.

According to him, “The global energy market today is impacted by several layers of interlinked factors, from rising geopolitical tensions and wars to the exponential growth of data centres to support artificial intelligence and the slow pace of energy efficiency growth.

All these have significant implications that ripple across countries and regions.”

Turning to Nigeria, Adenikinju painted a stark picture of an oil-rich nation crippled by energy poverty.

“Nigeria ranks among the top producers of oil and gas globally, yet over 87 million Nigerians have no access to electricity,” he lamented. “We are the largest exporter of crude oil in Africa and yet the biggest importer of refined petroleum products. That is an unacceptable paradox.”

He said the country must quickly monetise its oil and gas resources before global demand peaks, warning that “as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy, our hydrocarbons could become stranded assets if we fail to act decisively.”

“The options for Nigerians are very clear. Nigeria must aggressively exploit its huge oil and natural gas reserves as the world transitions away from a carbon-dominated global economy. As energy transition accelerates, the global demand for oil peaks sooner than expected.

“Nigeria must aggressively exploit its huge oil and gas reserves while simultaneously scaling up investments in solar, hydro, and wind power.”

Adenikinju noted that the war in Ukraine and the “weaponisation of energy” had upended decades of energy interdependence between Europe and Russia, sparking record prices for liquefied natural gas and crude oil.

“Before 2022, the EU relied on Russia for about 40 per cent of its natural gas imports. That figure has fallen drastically as countries scramble for alternative supplies,” he explained, adding that the resulting global shift has revived the age-old question of energy security.


He stressed that the transition to cleaner energy, though necessary, has introduced new forms of volatility. “Policies like the EU Green Deal and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act are reshaping global supply chains for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and copper,” he said.

He also pointed to the strategic competition between the United States and China over technological dominance in renewable energy and battery storage, which he described as a new front in the geopolitics of energy.

“China currently controls over 80 per cent of global solar panel manufacturing and critical mineral processing. This is forcing countries, especially developing ones, to make tough choices about who to align with,” he noted.

Citing the latest International Energy Agency data, Adenikinju said global economic uncertainty had become a key driver of energy instability, influencing oil prices, financing costs, and investment flows.

He explained that, “The IMF in its July 2025 World Economic Outlook described the global outlook as one of ‘tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty.’ This uncertainty fuels volatility in oil and gas markets, deterring long-term investments, especially in developing countries.”

He warned that capital flight and high interest rates could jeopardise large energy projects in countries like Nigeria. “When uncertainty rises, the option value of waiting increases. Developers delay financial investment decisions or demand higher returns,” he said.

The economist urged African countries to move beyond exporting raw materials for clean energy technologies.

“Africa should not limit itself to supplying lithium, cobalt, or other critical minerals to the world,” he said. “We must develop our own value chains, attract green capital, and participate in technology development.”

He pointed to countries like Kenya, Vietnam, and India as models of how emerging economies can attract clean energy investment through regulatory reforms and targeted incentives.

Adenikinju highlighted the Petroleum Industry Act, increased rig activity, and rising private sector participation as promising indicators.

However, he urged policymakers to move faster to strengthen infrastructure, financing frameworks, and investor confidence.

“Energy security is back on the national agenda,” he declared. “The challenge for Nigeria is to balance profitability with sustainability while positioning itself as a credible player in the new global energy order.”

He also called for regional cooperation through the African Union, saying, “The continent must protect its critical minerals and build shared capacity to compete in a carbon-neutral world.”

“In terms of macro policies and macro stability, the government is doing fantastically well,” Adenikinju said in his keynote paper. “But in this kind of reform, you must also find a way of ensuring that you identify the vulnerable groups and see how you can protect them. The market will not do that for you.”


Offering recommendations, Adenikinju called on the government to ensure that all Nigerians have access to affordable electricity through solar energy deployment. He also urged the removal of barriers to domestic gas access to enhance the distribution and use of Liquefied Petroleum Gas.

Also speaking, the President of the International Association for Energy Economics, Professor Edmund Lewis, has praised Nigeria for its leading role in advancing energy scholarship and policy dialogue in Africa, urging developing nations to pursue a pragmatic approach to energy transition that aligns with their growth realities.

Speaking on behalf of the global body, Prof. Wunmi Iledare said Africa’s energy future must not imitate Europe’s historical pathway but evolve through a model of “pragmatic prosperity” driven by data, inclusiveness, and policy dialogue.

“Africa’s energy future is not a copy of Europe’s past,” Iledare said. “It must be a model of pragmatic prosperity. As the world confronts new uncertainties, from market volatility to technological disruption, IAEE reaffirms its commitment to evidence-based collaboration and inclusive development.”

“NAEE has upheld IAEE’s standards of scholarship and inclusiveness while giving voice to Africa’s developmental realities in global energy dialogue,” he said. “Through its sustained commitment, the association has demonstrated that intellectual excellence and policy relevance can co-exist to shape Africa’s energy destiny.”

Iledare emphasised that these issues are central to IAEE’s mission of promoting evidence-driven dialogue rather than “political posturing”.

“We must understand how global transformation intersects with regional priorities, especially for developing economies seeking to balance access, climate responsibility, and growth,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Secretary General of the African Petroleum Producers Association, Omar Faruk, noted that the International Energy Agency has, for the first time, admitted that fossil fuels cannot be easily phased out and that the promise of renewable energy remains far from realisation within the projected timeline.

Faruk said this acknowledgement reinforces APPO’s long-held position that, while energy transition is important, Africa’s unique realities require a balanced approach that does not undermine the role of fossil fuels in the continent’s development.

He added that “As leaders in Africa’s energy industry, I hope this significant admission by the IEA encourages us to be more critical in accepting dogmas presented as scientific facts.”

Continuing, he said, “If Africa fails to produce the components it needs, whether in renewable or conventional energy, it will remain trapped in dependency.

“My first point, therefore, is this: whatever the direction of the global energy transition, we must understand its economic implications for Nigeria. “The term ‘transition’ implies moving from one system to another. But before we can move, we must first master what we currently have.

“Right now, we are energy insecure. Our power systems remain fragile, and our mastery of even the existing technologies, alternating and direct current systems, is still limited.”