At the end of November, the Nigerian Exchange Limited recorded its first monthly decline since March 2025, driven by capital gains tax concerns and profit-taking activities.

The All-Share Index of the domestic bourse closed at -6.88 per cent. This tumble followed an 8.00 per cent monthly gain in October and a 1.31 per cent gain as of 26 September. Earlier in July, the stock market ASI recorded a 16.57 per cent gain, its strongest monthly return since January 2024, when the market posted a record 40 per cent gain.

The dip in the ASI also led to a loss of about N6tn in market capitalisation in November 2025. The market started the month at N97.58tn and closed at N91.29tn.

Earlier in the month, the market reacted to the threat of US military action against the country from President Donald Trump as investors lost about N2.84tn in one day. Experiencing no respite, concerns about the Capital Gains Tax gripped the market and led to a particularly bearish day on Tuesday, 11 November 2025, when the ASI crashed by 5.01 per cent, in what some analysts described as the worst decline since 2010, to close at 141,327.30 points. A daily loss of N4.64tn was recorded following sell-offs in bellwether stocks such as Dangote Cement (-10.00 per cent), MTN Nigeria (-10.00 per cent), BUA Cement (-10.00 per cent), Aradel (-9.67 per cent), and Guaranty Trust Holding Company (-7.69 per cent).

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, on the floor of the exchange during a Closing Gong Ceremony to commemorate the listing of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated Real Estate Investment Fund Series 2, reassured stockbrokers and the investing community that the outcomes of the engagement on the capital gains tax would be in the interest of Nigeria and Nigerians.

Some positive trading returned to the market thereafter, but the market was mostly bearish.

In the last week of the month, AIICO Capital said a sustained bearish trend in the market due to sell pressure in highly capitalised stocks and the Monetary Policy Committee’s surprise decision to retain the benchmark rate at 27.00 per cent at its last meeting ensured the market closed in the red zone. Year-to-date gains also moderated to +39.4 per cent.

Highlighting the impact of the MPC’s decision to hold rates, the Cowry Asset Management research team said, “The Nigerian equities market continued to feel the weight of intensified profit-taking. Investors are still digesting the outcome of the recent MPC meeting, where the Committee held all policy parameters constant, a decision that typically encourages portfolio reshuffling, especially with year-end approaching and a pre-election year coming into view.”

In its Nigeria Weekly update, Coronation indicated that in the last week of November, the Nigerian equities market recorded gains in three of its trading sessions. However, the All-Share Index still closed lower by 0.14 per cent week-on-week at 143,520.53 points, extending the bearish trend for a fifth consecutive week.

“Consequently, the year-to-date return moderated to 39.44 per cent (from 39.64 per cent in the previous week), while the market capitalisation fell by N128.54bn w/w to settle at N91.29tn. The bearish sentiment was highlighted by sell-offs recorded in select bellwether and mid-cap counters, such as BUA Cement (-4.76 per cent w/w), United Bank for Africa (-1.22 per cent w/w), Oando (-2.87 per cent w/w), and Nigerian Breweries (-2.55 per cent w/w). This outweighed gains in the telecommunication giant, MTN Nigeria (+1.20 per cent w/w), and select tier-one banking names, including Guaranty Trust Holding Company (+2.25 per cent w/w), Access Holdings (+2.44 per cent w/w), and First HoldCo (+1.47 per cent w/w).

“The sectoral performance was broadly negative, excluding the Banking Index (+0.67 per cent w/w), which closed in the green. The Industrial Goods (-1.92 per cent w/w) led the decliners, followed by the Consumer Goods (-0.70 per cent w/w), Oil & Gas (-0.23 per cent w/w) and the Insurance (-0.07 per cent w/w) indices.”

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Taiwo Oyedele, at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025, described the single-day meltdown of 11 November as a Black Tuesday driven by unfounded fears.

“The capital market lost N4.6tn on 11-11-2025. I call it Black Tuesday. When I did the analysis, the number of deals was over 20,000. Total value is about N23bn. The average transaction was 1.1 million. And I said to myself, The market before that had gained about 45 per cent year-to-date. There’s still a market that goes up every time. Bismarck (Rewane) was telling us about Nvidia, right? Nvidia got to $5tn. Today, it’s struggling with $4tn. So, people will take advantage. There are other factors.

“Then we started saying it was a capital gains tax, no evidence, no data. We just needed to say it. We repeated it for four days. By the fifth day, it was on the 10 p.m. news on the channels. It was on the prime-time news on Arise. There were people having X Spaces for what they said was a bloodbath. By the weekend, stockbrokers were calling their customers: Are you not going to sell? Everybody is selling, you know. So, by Monday, there was a sell-off. So, when we did the analysis of the whole of last year, from capital gains in the capital market, people said, ‘For all capital gains in Nigeria, FIRS collected N52bn.’

“So, I said, who loses N4.6tn because they are running away from N52bn? Doesn’t add up. As part of the comprehensive reform that we have done, from January next year, companies will see a reduction in their corporate tax rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent. Anywhere in the world, this will be headline news; the market will be excited. But in Nigeria, that’s not the case. But that’s good news. We don’t really like those ones too much.”

Oyedele added that the players in the stock market could have changed the narrative. “The guys in the stock market could have changed the narrative completely instead of being negative. Do you know that about $60bn is what our young people put into virtual assets, crypto, and stablecoins? The average age of investors in the capital market is 55 years. Old people like me; the young people are not there.

“The return on the capital market in dollar terms is around 50 per cent. It has no tax. Those guys are not investing more than $50m. They’re doing $200 and $120, and there’s no tax. The crypto they are investing in has less gain and is taxable. But what is the message we are telling them? There’s 30 per cent in the market. They won’t come.”

Outlook

Analysts have mostly projected a rebound in the market and a year-end rally, with AIICO researchers saying, “We anticipate a market rebound as investors seek opportunities following November’s price declines and position for a potential year-end rally; however, concerns over the planned implementation of the new CGT in 2026 may continue to weigh on sentiment.”

The analysts at Cowry Asset Management said, “Fundamentally, the market continues to navigate a delicate balance between caution and emerging pockets of optimism. Inflationary pressures, FX volatility, and elevated borrowing costs remain key headwinds, yet there is a quiet build-up of confidence in companies with strong cash flows, tighter operating controls, and diversified earnings. Some investors are already positioning ahead of the upcoming dividend season in Q1 2026, a trend gradually showing in select accumulation-heavy names.

“Looking into the new week, the market is likely to retain its cautious tone. Year-end profit-taking should continue to drive sentiment, but fundamentally strong and oversold stocks may attract bargain hunters seeking early entry points before momentum shifts.”

Coronation analysts echoed similar sentiments, saying, “We expect to see a mild rebound this week, supported by the positive momentum seen in the latter part of last week’s sessions. In the medium term, we anticipate renewed bargain hunting in large-cap stocks as institutional investors reposition and rebalance portfolios ahead of the new year and the new Capital Gains Tax regime.”