In its recent meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) made several pivotal decisions aimed at navigating the current economic landscape. The Committee raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points, moving it from 26.25 percent to 26.75 percent. This decision is a significant indicator of the Committee’s stance on managing inflationary pressures and stabilizing the economy.

The MPC adjusted the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +500/-100 basis points, compared to the previous +100/-300 basis points. This adjustment aims to provide more flexibility in monetary policy implementation, reflecting the Committee’s responsiveness to prevailing economic conditions.

The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks was retained at 45.00 percent, and for Merchant Banks at 14 percent. This consistency indicates the Committee’s focus on maintaining liquidity levels within the banking sector, ensuring that banks have sufficient reserves to manage their operations effectively.

Furthermore, the Liquidity Ratio was retained at 30.00 percent. This decision underscores the MPC’s commitment to ensuring that the financial system remains stable and liquid, enabling banks to meet their short-term obligations and support economic activities.

Implications for the economy

The consistent hike in interest rates by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over the past two years reflects a determined stance to curb inflation. The latest increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.75 percent is a continuation of this strategy. While the primary goal is to control inflation, these policy decisions have far-reaching implications for various aspects of the Nigerian economy.

The primary objective of raising interest rates is to combat inflation by reducing the money supply and curbing consumer spending. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, discouraging spending and investment. This can lead to a decrease in demand for goods and services, which, in theory, helps to bring down prices. However, persistent inflationary pressures may indicate that other underlying issues, such as supply chain disruptions, exchange rate volatility, or structural economic weaknesses, need to be addressed alongside monetary policy adjustments.

Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing for businesses. This can lead to reduced capital investments, as companies may defer or scale back expansion plans due to higher financing costs. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which often rely on bank loans for working capital and growth, may be particularly affected. Consequently, this could slow down economic growth and job creation.

For consumers, higher interest rates translate to more expensive loans, whether for purchasing homes, cars, or other goods on credit. This can lead to reduced consumer spending, which is a significant component of gross domestic product (GDP). When consumer spending slows, businesses may experience lower sales, which can further dampen economic growth.

The banking sector is directly impacted by changes in monetary policy. Higher interest rates can improve banks’ net interest margins, as the spread between deposit rates and lending rates widens. However, the higher CRR means banks have to hold a larger proportion of their deposits as reserves with the CBN, limiting the funds available for lending. This can tighten credit conditions in the economy, potentially leading to a slowdown in business activities and consumer spending.

A higher interest rate environment can attract foreign investors seeking better returns on investments, such as government bonds and other fixed-income securities. This can lead to an influx of foreign capital, which can help stabilise the exchange rate and bolster foreign reserves. However, if the high-interest rates are perceived as a sign of economic instability, it could deter long-term investment in critical sectors of the economy.

By attracting foreign investment, higher interest rates can support the naira, Nigeria’s currency. A stable or appreciating exchange rate can help mitigate imported inflation, as the cost of imported goods and services becomes more predictable. However, over-reliance on foreign capital inflows can expose the economy to volatility, particularly if global economic conditions shift.

While the CBN’s consistent rate hikes are aimed at controlling inflation, they come with trade-offs. The challenge for policymakers is to balance inflation control with sustaining economic growth and ensuring that businesses and consumers are not overly burdened by the higher cost of borrowing. The success of these measures will depend on addressing underlying structural issues in the economy and maintaining a holistic approach to economic management.

Addressing middlemen activities and food supply deficit

In its deliberations, the MPC identified a significant issue contributing to the inflationary pressures in the Nigerian economy: the increasing activities of middlemen. These intermediaries often play a crucial role in financing smallholder farmers, aggregating their produce, and subsequently hoarding or transporting these goods across borders to neighbouring countries. While this system can facilitate market access for small farmers, it also has several negative consequences that the MPC believes need to be addressed to manage food prices and inflation effectively.

Middlemen can significantly influence the supply chain of agricultural products. By financing smallholder farmers, they ensure that these farmers have the necessary capital to produce crops. However, once the produce is harvested, middlemen often aggregate and hoard large quantities of goods. This artificial scarcity can drive up prices in local markets.

Additionally, the movement of farm produce across borders can exacerbate domestic shortages, further pushing up prices and contributing to food inflation. These activities not only destabilise local food markets but also make it challenging to predict and manage food supply within the country.

The Committee emphasised the need to regulate the activities of these middlemen to mitigate their impact on food supply and prices. One proposed approach is to enhance monitoring and control measures to prevent excessive hoarding and ensure that a significant portion of agricultural produce remains within the domestic market. This could involve stricter border controls and better tracking of agricultural goods to curb illegal exports.

The MPC recognised that addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts between monetary and fiscal authorities. By working closely with fiscal policymakers, the Committee aims to implement measures that can help stabilise food prices and ensure a steady supply of agricultural products in the market. This collaboration could include initiatives to support smallholder farmers directly, reducing their reliance on middlemen, and enhancing storage and distribution infrastructure to minimise post-harvest losses.

The MPC’s resolution to sustain collaboration with the fiscal authority underscores a holistic approach to combating inflation. By aligning monetary policies with fiscal initiatives, the Committee aims to create a more stable and predictable economic environment. This joint effort is crucial for implementing comprehensive solutions that address both the demand and supply sides of the food market.

The MPC’s focus on the activities of middlemen highlights a critical aspect of the inflationary pressures affecting the Nigerian economy. By proposing measures to regulate these activities and collaborating with fiscal authorities, the Committee aims to address the root causes of food supply deficits and stabilize food prices. This approach is essential for creating a more resilient and balanced economic environment, ensuring that inflationary pressures are effectively managed while supporting the agricultural sector and the broader economy.

Government measures and support for SMEs

The Committee also expressed optimism regarding the Federal Government’s recent stop-gap measures aimed at bridging the food supply deficit. Notably, the introduction of a 150-day duty-free import window for essential food commodities, including maize, husked brown rice, wheat, and cowpeas, is expected to help moderate domestic food prices. This temporary measure is designed to alleviate immediate shortages and reduce price pressures in the market.

The 150-day duty-free import window is a strategic intervention aimed at ensuring an adequate supply of key food commodities in the domestic market. By temporarily removing import duties on these essential items, the government aims to increase their availability and reduce prices, thus providing relief to consumers. This measure is particularly significant in a context where domestic production may not be sufficient to meet demand, exacerbated by factors such as climate change, pest outbreaks, and logistical challenges.

Importantly, the Committee noted that these measures are not expected to lead to a direct injection of liquidity into the economy that could exacerbate inflation. The duty-free import window is a targeted intervention focused on specific commodities, designed to address supply-side constraints without causing broader inflationary pressures. This approach reflects a careful balance between stabilizing food prices and maintaining overall economic stability.

While the duty-free import window is a welcome development, the Committee emphasised the importance of implementing it with a clearly defined exit strategy. Short-term measures can provide immediate relief, but without a planned transition, they risk undermining the recent gains in domestic food production. An abrupt end to the duty-free period could lead to supply disruptions and price volatility, negating the benefits achieved during the intervention. Therefore, it is crucial to manage the exit from this measure in a way that supports a smooth return to reliance on domestic production.

To complement these initiatives, the CBN is actively engaging with Development Finance institutions, such as the Bank of Industry (BOI), to ensure adequate support for industries, particularly small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs). SMEs play a vital role in the agricultural value chain, from production to processing and distribution. By providing targeted financial support and resources, the CBN aims to enhance the capacity of SMEs to contribute to food production and supply, thereby reducing dependence on imports in the long term.

The collaboration with Development Finance institutions involves offering credit facilities, technical assistance, and capacity-building programmes to SMEs. This support helps these enterprises improve their productivity, adopt modern technologies, and expand their operations. In turn, this contributes to a more robust and resilient agricultural sector capable of meeting the country’s food needs sustainably.

The Federal Government’s stop-gap measures, including the 150-day duty-free import window for essential food commodities, represent a proactive approach to addressing the current food supply deficit. The Committee’s optimism about these measures is tempered with recognition of the need for a well-defined exit strategy to sustain the gains in domestic food production. Additionally, the engagement with Development Finance institutions to support SMEs underscores a comprehensive approach to strengthening the agricultural sector and ensuring long-term food security. These combined efforts are aimed at stabilizing food prices, supporting economic growth, and mitigating inflationary pressures.

Cardoso’s insights and the economic outlook

The CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, provided further insights into the recent monetary policy decisions and their implications for the economy.

Addressing the positive direction of the economy, Cardoso emphasised the collaborative efforts between monetary and fiscal policies to tackle food inflation and stabilise the financial system.

Cardoso highlighted the MPC’s recognition of fiscal measures aimed at moderating food inflation. “Now, concerning food, I will say that, the MPC noticed the moves by the fiscal side to help take in those policies that are helping to moderate food inflation. I’m very much encouraged by that. So we are hopeful. Don’t forget that the CBN also made a provision for a fertilizer subsidy, which has also been given with a view to help the situation.”

This collaboration reflects a concerted effort to address the immediate challenges in the food sector and support agricultural productivity.

Cardoso also spoke on the positive outcomes observed in the foreign exchange market. “On the foreign exchange side, I am happy to say that we have seen positive outcomes from the tools that we have been using over the recent past. For example, exchange rates have converged, limiting the arbitrage opportunities. This is very important.”

He noted significant improvements in foreign exchange inflows, which increased from $37.93 million between January and May of 2024 to $38.8 billion. Additionally, net inflows grew by 73.4 percent in May 2024 compared to May 2023.

“On the issue of diaspora returns, I’m very pleased to say that at the end of June, this has gone up to $2.34 billion in comparison to $1.58 billion from the corresponding period last year.” These developments are crucial for stabilising the naira and enhancing foreign reserves.

The governor highlighted the positive response of the capital markets to the CBN’s policies.

“We have also seen that in the capital markets, policies are having the capital markets responding positively. And of course, the banking sector has been very aggressive in giving guidance to the banks with respect to how we want them to position themselves for the future.”

This proactive approach aims to ensure that the financial sector is well-prepared to support economic growth and stability.

Addressing concerns from manufacturers regarding rising interest rates, Cardoso reassured that the CBN is actively engaging with the business community. “We are engaging with the business community, especially manufacturers. We’ve had several different programmes with them, in some cases individually and in many cases collectively. And it’s something that we will continue to do, to at least explain the reasons why we are taking some of the measures we are taking.”

Cardoso acknowledged the challenges posed by high inflation and the necessity of current measures. “Inflation really, I’m sure, is having a major impact on the economy. Purchasing power is getting eroded. People are being pushed into different categories of poverty. And it is in their interest that we can contain this sort of inflation. If not, the ramifications will also be for them. We understand the need for growth, and we also understand that it is relatively challenging when you have high interest rates. We also understand that.”

He emphasised that controlling inflation is fundamental for the long-term stability and future of the economy, even if it involves short-term pains.

The governor reflected on the causes of the current economic situation, pointing to past liquidity injections.

“However, it’s also important to reflect on how we got to where we are today. And let’s not forget that this was largely a result of a tremendous amount of liquidity that came into the system in a relatively short space of time. When you print money in ways and means, it has its consequences. And we are paying for those consequences.”

He underscored the importance of managing the consequences of past policies and ensuring prudent monetary management moving forward.

Cardoso concluded with an update on the banking system’s recapitalisation efforts. “With regards to the banking system recapitalization, ‘so far so good.'” This indicates progress in strengthening the financial system to better withstand economic shocks and support sustainable growth.

Governor Cardoso’s statements underscore a comprehensive and coordinated approach to addressing the challenges facing the Nigerian economy. The focus on moderating food inflation, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, engaging with the business community, and ensuring the long-term stability of the financial system reflects a balanced strategy aimed at fostering economic resilience and growth.