The naira remains under pressure despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest efforts to keep it afloat.

In the past week, the apex bank sold $166 million to authorised dealer banks to stem rising demand for the U.S. dollar at the official window.

Naira fluctuates at official market

The Nigerian foreign exchange market recorded a mixed yet relatively stable week, buoyed by CBN’s intermittent interventions.

At the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the official FX spot rate settled at ₦1,532.51/$ on Friday, marginally gaining from ₦1,533.56/$ at the beginning of the week.

Throughout the week, the naira traded between a high of ₦1,526/$ and a low of ₦1,536.50/$, closing at ₦1,530/$.

According to a report by Market Forces Africa, analysts say this narrow band shows the CBN’s hand actively guiding rates despite sustained pressure from importers, investors, and businesses scrambling for dollars.

Forwards market turns bearish

While the spot market reflected relative stability, the forwards market painted a weaker picture. Rates across all contracts depreciated as investors hedged against further declines in the naira.

-1-month contract: fell by 0.1% to ₦1,577.15/$

-3-month contract: dropped 0.3% to ₦1,652.88/$

6-month contract: depreciated 0.5% to ₦1,764.11/$

1-year coverage: dipped 0.8% to ₦1,975.38/$

The bearish tone suggests a lack of confidence in the naira’s long-term strength, even as external reserves recorded a healthy increase of $565 million to hit $40.72 billion.

Analysts expect short-term stability

Despite forward market pessimism, analysts at AIICO Capital Limited believe CBN’s interventions will maintain some stability in the near term.

“In the interim, we expect the FX market to retain its current stability, supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s ongoing policy refinements and fiscal measures aimed at sustaining liquidity,” the firm noted.

However, some experts warn that unless Nigeria boosts dollar inflows through exports and investment, the cost of defending the naira could outweigh the benefits.

Global commodity prices add more pressure

Nigeria’s FX outlook is further complicated by volatile global commodity prices.

Brent crude oil, the country’s key foreign exchange earner, slipped 41 cents to close at $66.18 per barrel, while U.S. WTI fell to $63.17.

In the gold market, prices also dropped as stronger U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for rate cuts. Spot gold fell 1.82% to $3,337.02 per ounce.

Outlook: Fragile stability ahead

As Nigeria watches global markets and geopolitical shifts, the naira’s future remains uncertain.

The CBN’s recent $166 million injection may provide short-term breathing space, but forward contract depreciation shows that investors are bracing for turbulence.

With external reserves improving, the central bank has more room to act — but whether that is enough to anchor confidence in the naira is the question on every trader’s mind.

“It is about time that the CBN took advantage of the accretion in the country’s external reserves,” Janet Ogochukwu, senior banker and economist, said.

According to her, Nigerians should expect a stronger naira in the coming weeks as the latest intervention will improve liquidity.