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Africa News of Tuesday, 7 July 2020

Source: africanews.com

Coronavirus: How fast is it spreading in Africa?

In terms of overall numbers, Africa currently accounts for a small proportion of total global cases In terms of overall numbers, Africa currently accounts for a small proportion of total global cases

Africa is seeing coronavirus cases rapidly increasing and deaths rising, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

We've looked at the situation across the continent, and examined which countries are of most concern.

How fast is coronavirus spreading?

In terms of overall numbers, Africa currently accounts for only a small proportion of total global cases, but the acceleration in rates of infection in some countries is of increasing concern to health authorities in the region.

While it took nearly 100 days for Africa to reach an initial 100,000 cases, it took only 18 days for that to double to 200,000. It doubled again to 400,000 cases over the next 20 days.

The upward trend in Africa is starting to resemble other parts of the world that have been badly hit by the coronavirus. Most African countries are now experiencing community transmission, according to the WHO.

This is when a person gets Covid-19 without having been in contact with a known case from abroad or a confirmed domestic case, which makes it hard for for the authorities to track down the source of a local outbreak.

Where are Africa's hotspots?

The two countries with the highest numbers of cases are South Africa and Egypt. They accounted for over 60% of all the new cases reported in late June.

South Africa has the highest recorded number of total cases, while Egypt has the largest number of recorded coronavirus deaths.

South Africa, which imposed one of the world's strictest lockdowns in late March, has seen cases rise steadily after this was relaxed in early May.

The Western Cape province (where Cape Town is located), accounts for nearly half of all cases in the country and more than half of the deaths. But cases are steadily rising in Gauteng province, which includes Johannesburg.

Egypt has seen case numbers rising rapidly since mid-May, but there are indications that this may now have reached a peak with recorded new infections levelling off slightly in early July.

There is also concern about what is happening in Nigeria, which recorded the second-highest increase in deaths from Covid-19 after South Africa in the WHO report for 1 July.

The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa - more than 60% under the age of 25. Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups.

Another way to look at death rates is to see what proportion of people who get Covid-19 go on to die.

On this basis, there are five countries with death rates that are comparable to or higher than the most recent global average rate of just under 5%:

Chad (8.5%)

Algeria (6.6%)

Niger (6.2%)

Burkina Faso (5.5%)

Mali (5.3)

But Githinji Gitahi, the head of Amref Health Africa, an NGO which specialises in health matters, says the higher rates could be an indication of much higher infection levels than those being recorded, and that it could be down to low levels of testing.

The fewer tests you carry out, the fewer cases you find, and so the number of deaths appears relatively high.

Different methods of reporting deaths may also affect the number.

For example, where community health workers and other frontline staff record Covid-19 deaths, such as in Chad, you could get a higher death rate.