What is going on with Borussia Dortmund?

There was a familiar pattern to Borussia Dortmund’s losses during Jurgen Klopp’s fated last season: they dominate their opponents, often creating clear scoring opportunities which don’t lead to goals, and then allow significantly high percentage chance and in turn, goals.

In what can be only described as a freak occurrence, every player seemed to be out of form at the same time. That campaign is regarded amongst some Dortmund fans as a cursed season, with both fans, players, coaches, and the board seeming to not understand why they were losing games they were clearly dominating.

The team went on a run of seven losses in eight games in the league at some point, eventually finishing seventh. Statistical data from that season revealed something different though: they should have finished as high as third or even second. They scored less and conceded more than they should have.

It’s happening again.

Dortmund’s loss this weekend to Bundesliga’s surprise package, Union Berlin, followed that 2014/2015 pattern, one which has reared its head under every coach they have had since that year. Tuchel’s first year was the only one since 2015 that saw their final points tally outperform their expected points (xPTS).

That was until Lucien Favre showed up. A calm, steadying presence paired with a keen tactical mind, he got the team getting results they probably didn’t deserve. They outperformed their xPTS by a whopping 13.15 and 6.52 points in his first and second seasons respectively. And then the 2015 bug came back, catching up to Favre as it did to Tuchel and Bosz, all three being otherwise excellent coaches.

Dortmund are presently underperforming their xPTS by 4.69 points. They are fourth. They should be first. Favre is gone, sacked this week. Unlike his predecessors, he wasn’t allowed to see out the season. This may yet prove to be a mistake.

The loss to Union Berlin is the team’s first under the new caretaker coach, Edin Terzi?, and resembled the losses under Favre, Bosz, Tuchel, and Klopp. Dortmund lost 2–1, conceding both goals from in-swinging corners from the left. On the first, winger Taiwo Awoniyi loses his marker at the far post to head in Grischa Promel’s flick from Cedric Teuchert’s corner.

From the second, Marvin Friedrich doesn’t even have to lose a marker. He gets a free header from roughly 12 yards out, with Dortmund’s zonal marking meaning he was no one’s responsibility. Dortmund continue to dominate the game as expected, but never quite create a clear chance, going on to lose rather meekly.

There are positives to be had. Youssoufa Moukoko, the team’s teenage jewel, looks every bit worth the hype, scoring with a finish that belied his age; Marco Reus is fit; Raphael Guerreiro is firmly one of the world’s best full-backs, and; the squad is teeming with young creative playmakers, all of whom can be difference-makers on any given matchday. However, the negatives are stark.

Marco Reus, Julian Brandt, and most importantly Jadon Sancho are out of form. These should be the leaders of the team’s attack. Instead, Dortmund is increasingly reliant on the youngsters Gio Reyna and Jude Bellingham. Electric talents they may be, but they are both 17 (Moukoko is 16).

Major contributors, Thorgan Hazard and Erling Braut Haaland, are out injured. Most worryingly, the team is conceding goals they shouldn’t, a trait previously unseen in the Favre iteration. They are presently in the bottom five in the league in that regard, with an expected goals against (xGA) value of 13.36, 4.64 less than their actual value of 18 goals conceded.

The jury is still out on whether the firing of Favre was a good idea. He was under pressure for not winning the league, which is preposterous when considering that Bayern are by some distance the best club side in Europe, not just Germany. His firing is very similar to Barcelona’s sacking of Ernesto Valverde.

In my opinion, both coaches were under undue pressure for disappointing, when they were in fact overachieving. The rug went out from under Barcelona when they fired Valverde. The team was top of La Liga when he was sacked yet would finish the season a distant second to a not-great Real Madrid. The same fate may yet befall Dortmund. There is an argument to be made for Favre’s firing.

A lot of people believe Dortmund should have won the league in his first season and choked it away at the end. However, the data disagrees. As stated earlier, the points total massively exceeded actual performances. Bayern won the league for only one reason: Bayern was better.

Maybe Terzi? arrests the slide, gets them defending better and attacking with more purpose. Or maybe we have another “cursed” season coming. Just thirteen matchdays in, and it feels like they cannot win the league this year, despite Bayern looking fatigued and less dynamic. Whatever happens, it will be intriguing to watch, because Borussia Dortmund can be a lot of different things but one: boring.

Games to watch this weekend

The Premier League throws up some fascinating clashes this weekend. Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kicks things off with a potential banana peel for the champions. Palace have traditionally given Liverpool problems, and have more weapons this season.

The addition of Eberechi Eze’s arrival has taken some creative responsibility off Wilfred Zaha, and the team’s solid foundation remains constant. However, the loss of Christian Benteke via a red card will really hurt, as his physicality would have threatened whichever centre-back pairing Klopp decides on.

Meanwhile, Southampton’s third-place position on the table is not flattering: they are genuinely one of the best teams in the league and should have beat Arsenal last time out. They might inflict more misery on Manchester City.

Speaking of teams that should have beaten Arsenal (who might lose to a quietly resurgent Everton), Leeds United take on Manchester United in arguably the game of the weekend. Leeds play in a ferociously proactive manner, taking the game to their opponents irrespective of who they are playing, a characteristic of Marcelo Bielsa sides, from Chile to Athletic Bilbao to Marseille.

They will attack United, which is not often a good idea. United are best when running at retreating opposition, with Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes’ passing facilitating Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial’s willing running. Leeds may win or get hammered. Such is the thrill of the Bielsa experience. Don’t miss this one.

First plays second in two of Europe’s top five leagues. In Germany, Bayer Leverkusen, led by the aforementioned Peter Bosz, are top of the table, a remarkable feat given that they have lost their best players in two consecutive seasons (Julian Brandt and Kai Havertz).

They are dynamic, fast, and never stop pressing (there is a clip of midfielder Amiri Nadiem losing the ball, sprinting forty yards to win it back and then celebrating despite the team being 4–0 up). They have in-form forwards in Lucas Alario and Leon Bailey and they can really hurt Bayern. So of course, Bayern will win.

In France, first place Lille take on PSG, who are missing key players in Neymar, Marquinhos, and Danilo. Lille are the form team, with four wins and a draw in their last five. They have only one loss and would have been further ahead by more than the one-point lead they have now if they hadn’t drawn a third of their games.

They also have a red-hot striker in Burak Yilmaz, a phenom in Eduardo Camavinga, and have the joint best defense in the league along with PSG. They are outperforming all metrics, scoring more and conceding less than they should, with a xPTS total exceeding the real thing by four points. Some will say it’s a mark of winners, others will say a regression to the mean is coming. This weekend might give us answers.

Sunday brings a trio of exciting games in Serie A between six of the top eight teams from last season. Unbeaten Milan play Roberto De Zerbi’s entertaining and dangerous Sassuolo, who are in sixth but just a win away from third. You get the sense Milan are beginning to wobble a bit. They had to fight for a point at Genoa, twice coming from behind.

They sorely miss Zlatan Ibrahimovic, whose functions for the team far exceed that of just “goalscorer”. The legend often serves as a focal point for the team, and they don’t have anyone who can replicate that. Next up is Atalanta hosting Roma, who are having a quietly brilliant season.

Former Bundesliga assist leader, Henrikh Mhkitaryan, reinvented himself as a goalscorer in the absence of nominal centre-forward Edin Dzeko. The Bosnian is back though, and the team has a nearly clean bill of health, missing only Davide Santon. They also seem to have unearthed a gem in eighteen year-old Riccardo Calafiori.

Atalanta seem to have weathered the storm of the Gomez/Gasperini bust-up. It still seems like the diminutive-yet-giant Argentine will leave, but he was excellent in both artistry and industry when he came on against Juventus and may get the starting nod this time. Finally, Lazio hosts Napoli. Lazio have struggled for consistency all season, often following impressive wins with head-scratching losses.

Napoli meanwhile, could find themselves as high as third and within three points of first when the dust settles this weekend. They’ll need to win first. Let us see which Lazio turns up.

We conclude with Barcelona. The Catalans beat then-first Real Sociedad last matchday in a rousing display of sharpness and grit. Antoine Griezmann may have missed an open goal twice (yeah, he did), but he was industrious, creative, and finally seemed to mesh with his teammates. Pedri is a star in the making, and Frenkie De Jong ran the game in a man of the match performance.

The team seems to have found a defensive pairing that works in Oscar Mingueza and Ronald Araujo, and most importantly, Lionel Messi looked engaged from start to finish. His play seemed to galvanize his teammates, which is not an unfamiliar occurrence: when Messi switches off, the entire team seems to deflate like a sad balloon man.

He wanted it against La Real, and his teammates raised their game to match his. Valencia should not be a tough opponent on Saturday, but the team cannot let their intensity drop. They can no longer afford to give up any more points unnecessarily.

There might still be a title challenge to be had. Make no mistake, the club itself is still a clusterfuck, but on the field, the players can tune out the noise and fight. It is important that they do.