Nigeria’s hope of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup was dealt a significant blow following the Super Eagles’ 1–1 draw against South Africa at the Free State Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein on Tuesday, September 9.

The result was a missed opportunity for the three-time African champions, who could have closed the gap on Bafana Bafana to just three points with two matches remaining. Instead, the draw left Nigeria’s campaign hanging by a thread.

The draw handed South Africa a major boost in their qualification campaign, while further dimming Nigeria’s chances of returning to the global stage after missing out on the previous edition in Qatar.

Hugo Broos’ side retained their lead in Group C with 17 points, while Nigeria moved to 11 points—three behind Gernot Rohr’s Benin Republic, who sit second with 14 points.

According to projections from We Global Football, South Africa now holds a commanding 98.56 percent chance of qualifying automatically for the tournament in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.

Benin Republic, despite their position in second place, has a slim 0.84 percent chance, while Nigeria’s chances have dwindled to just 0.60 percent.

In terms of playoff qualification, Eric Chelle’s side leads with a 29.04 percent chance, compared to Benin Republic’s 13.08 percent.

Elsewhere on the continent, other West African powerhouses are in strong positions. Ghana boasts a 93.56 percent chance of qualification, Côte d’Ivoire stands at 92.44 percent, and Senegal holds a 97.12 percent likelihood of making it to the Mundial.

North African giants Morocco and Tunisia have already secured their spots, each with a 100 percent qualification rate and two matches to spare.

CAF World Cup Qualifying Update (9 September).

Big favorites in every group! Cape Verde 🇨🇻 and the Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 pick up big results today.

Our 4 for the playoffs: Gabon 🇬🇦, Cameroon 🇨🇲, Congo DR 🇨🇩, and Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 pic.twitter.com/tT2BGIKrFS

— We Global Football (@We_Global) September 9, 2025