Three-time African champions, the Super Eagles of Nigeria will begin their hunt for a fourth continental title on Tuesday, December 23, when they take on the Taifa Stars of Tanzania in their Group C opening match at the Complex Sportif de Fes, in Morocco.

Although the star-studded Super Eagles are used to attending the AFCON high on expectations, this time, the story is different as the recent failure to qualify for the 2026 has considerably reduced the usual expectation of triumph.

Therefore, even as Nigeria is going into Tuesday’s fixture as the top favourites, the unpredictability of the present Super Eagles has made even their diehard fans opt for cautious optimism.

However, in this fixture, the Super Eagles who finished as runners-up at the last edition of the AFCON are favourites because apart from the fact that they are rated 38th in the world while their opponents are a distant 112th on FIFA ranking, Tanzania are yet to beat Nigeria in any competitive match.

Head-to-head between Nigeria and Tanzania

In Morocco, the Super Eagles would try to put behind them the recent mishap in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers so as to maintain their dominance over the Taifa Stars.

According to available records, Nigeria has won three and drawn two of the five competitive matches played against Tanzania beginning from 1980 when the then Green Eagles won their first AFCON on home soil.

Both countries were housed in Group A of the 1980 AFCON, and the Christian Chukwu led Green Eagles defeated Taifa Stars 3-1, setting the tone for future victories over the fellow Anglo-phone nation.

Mudashiru Babatunde Lawal of blessed memory opened the scoring for Nigeria in the 11th minute, while Ifeanyi Onyedika doubled the lead in the 35th minute for the Green Eagles to go into the break with a 2-0 advantage.

However, on resumption, the Taifa Stars attempted a fight back with Mkamba scoring in the 54th minute to reduce the deficit. But Segun Odegbami sealed the comprehensive win with the third goal five minutes from regulation time.

After the victory in 1980, Nigeria again recorded two more wins, one in the 1982 World Cup qualifiers and the other in the 2017 AFCON qualifiers.

On December 6, 1980, Tanzania forced the Green Eagles to a 1-1 draw in Lagos in the 1982 World Cup qualifiers, but the return fixture in Dar es Salaam ended 2-0 in favour of Nigeria.

Similarly, the first leg of the 2017 AFCON qualifiers, which Tanzania hosted, ended in a goalless draw, but the Green Eagles won the return leg 1-0 in Lagos.

Interestingly, Nigeria has kept a clean sheet in each of the last three meetings with Tanzania, an enviable record they will strive to preserve in Morocco.

So, on Tuesday, the Taifa Stars would aim to score their first goal against the Super Eagles in 45 years and also break the jinx of not winning against their more illustrious opponents.

The odds are heavily against Tanzania, but recent editions of the AFCON have ushered in a new trend that has seen teams hitherto considered as minnows becoming stumbling blocks to the heavyweights.

This scenario played out at the last AFCON in Cote d’Ivoire where many of the continent’s “big five” struggled, while several smaller nations made historic runs. A good example is the 4-0 thrashing of hosts Ivory Coast by Equatorial Guinea, a nation with a population of 1.6m only. In fact, the shocking defeat cost Jean-Louis Gasset his position as coach of the Elephants.

Therefore, expectations are that more upsets would be recorded in Morocco, where smaller teams are eagerly waiting to make history with stunning victories. This should worry the Super Eagles as they go up against the less endowed Taifa Stars.

Super Eagles’ unsolved problems

Although nobody can dispute the fact that the Super Eagles are still among the tournament favourites, the chase for a fourth title may be hampered by some unresolved problems.

Injury has denied Eric Chelle the services of two of his best defenders – Ola Aina and the new boy Benjamin Frederick. Aina has officially resumed playing, but he has not yet returned to senior competitive football for Nottingham Forest or the Super Eagles, while Frederick’s injury has sidelined him till next year.

The absence of these two key defenders, especially the young Frederick who effectively took over from William Troost Ekong before his retirement, is a big void that is hard to fill.

In addition, before the confirmation of Wilfred Ndidi as the new captain of the team, there was a silent tussle for Ekong’s armband among the senior players.

However, Wilfred Ndidi, who wore the captain’s armband anytime Troost-Ekong wasn’t playing, has been announced as the substantive captain.

This development no doubt has implications as new leadership is usually faced with challenges and this may have a negative effect on the team’s unity.

Moreover, the team is star-studded with two former African Footballer of the Year award winners, Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, in the fold, but there is a nagging problem of squad depth.

Teams thrive better at tournaments when their bench is as strong as the starting eleven. The Super Eagles can’t boast of this strength as players’ selection is gradually becoming a difficult task for the team’s managers.

This is partly the reason that anytime the focal man, Osimhen, fails to click or is injured, it becomes almost impossible for the Super Eagles to win. So, squad depth is also a serious problem for the team.

Nevertheless, the panic that gripped the team when the news of Stanley Nwabali’s injury surfaced was reduced reasonably when his availability for the AFCON was confirmed.

However, there is no assurance that the injury has healed fully. Maybe taking him off in the last friendly against Egypt was for precautionary reasons and the need to test Amas Obasogie.