Nigeria could be heading for another round of diesel price increases as the estimated cost of importing the product climbs dangerously close to N2,000 per litre amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The estimated landing cost of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, has risen to N1,917.82 per litre, according to the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) report for September 10, 2026.

The figure puts imported diesel N67.82 per litre above the N1,850 per litre price quoted by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, creating a widening gap between domestic refinery pricing and the estimated replacement cost of imports.

Lagos depots sell below landing cost

Despite the sharp increase in import-parity costs, checks on Lagos depot prices on September 14 showed that several suppliers were still selling diesel below MEMAN's estimated landing cost.

Chipet, Pinnacle and Wosbab quoted AGO at about N1,855 per litre, while Ibeto offered the prod-uct at approximately N1,835 per litre.

The prices suggest that some marketers may still be selling existing inventories acquired at lower costs rather than replacing stocks at current international market rates.

However, sustained increases in replacement costs could eventually force suppliers to adjust prices, particularly as older inventories are depleted.

Middle East crisis piles pressure on diesel

MEMAN'S AGO import-parity calculation incorporates international product prices, crude oil benchmarks, shipping and other market variables, as well as the naira-dollar exchange rate.

The association's September 10 report placed the exchange rate at between N1,334.66 and N1,334.67 per dollar, while the 30-day average AGO import parity stood at N1,729.57 per litre.

The latest N1,917.82 estimate is therefore significantly above the recent monthly average, highlighting how rapidly international supply conditions have changed.

The increase comes as the US-Iran conflict intensifies, raising concerns about oil production, shipping routes and the movement of refined petroleum products from the Middle East.

Disruptions around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb have added to supply risks, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes, continues to weigh on energy markets.
Dangote price now in focus

Attention is increasingly turning to Dangote Refinery as traders watch for a possible adjustment to its domestic AGO price.

At N1,850 per litre, the refinery's current price remains N67.82 below MEMAN's estimated N1,917.82 import cost. That difference could provide some protection for Nigerian consumers and businesses heavily dependent on diesel, particularly manufacturers, logistics companies and businesses running generators.

However, if international crude and refined-product prices remain elevated, the domestic market could face renewed upward pressure. For businesses already battling higher operating costs, a diesel price approaching or exceeding N2,000 per litre could translate into higher transportation, production and distribution expenses, with the additional costs potentially filtering through to consumers.