Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell by N365.64bn in the first quarter of 2026 despite a sharp increase in imports from the world’s largest economy, findings by The PUNCH have shown.

The Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that exports to the US declined to N1.18tn in Q1 2026 from N1.54tn in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a year-on-year drop of 23.69 per cent.

The decline suggests weaker demand for Nigerian products in the American market, even as the US remained Nigeria’s fifth-largest export destination during the quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, exports to the US recovered by 31.60 per cent from N895.06bn recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In contrast, Nigeria’s imports from the US surged by 97.33 per cent year-on-year to N2.81tn in Q1 2026 from N1.42tn in the corresponding period of 2025. Compared with the preceding quarter, imports also rose by 74.14 per cent from N1.61tn.

The figures indicate that Nigeria imported goods worth more than twice the value of its exports to the US during the quarter, resulting in a bilateral trade deficit of approximately N1.63tn.

The NBS stated, “Analysis of exports according to trading partners revealed that during the quarter under review, the main export destination was India with a value of N2.77tn or 13.09 per cent of total exports, followed by exports to France with N1.97tn or 9.29 per cent of total exports, the Netherlands with N1.95tn or 9.22 per cent of total exports, Spain with N1.63tn or 7.68 per cent of total exports, and exports to the United States of America with goods valued at N1.18tn, representing 5.56 per cent of total exports.”

The bureau also identified the United States as Nigeria’s second-largest source of imports after China. According to the report, imports from China stood at N5.10tn, representing 37.42 per cent of total imports, while imports from the United States amounted to N2.81tn, accounting for 20.60 per cent.

The strong growth in imports from the US came despite an overall decline in Nigeria’s import bill. Total imports fell by 18.17 per cent year-on-year to N13.62tn in Q1 2026 from N16.64tn in the corresponding period of 2025.

The report further showed that Nigeria imported goods mainly from Asia, valued at N7.55tn or 55.45 per cent of total imports. Imports from the Americas amounted to N3.24tn, representing 23.76 per cent, while Europe accounted for N2.10tn or 15.39 per cent.

On the export side, Europe remained Nigeria’s largest regional market, with exports valued at N7.93tn, followed by Asia at N6.42tn. Exports to the Americas stood at N2.61tn, representing 12.35 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports.

Overall, Nigeria recorded total exports of N21.17tn in the first quarter of 2026, up by 2.77 per cent from N20.60tn in the corresponding period of 2025. Total imports stood at N13.62tn, resulting in a trade surplus of N7.55tn.

The NBS attributed the improved trade balance largely to lower petroleum product imports and higher crude oil exports. Crude oil remained Nigeria’s biggest export, accounting for N11.20tn or 52.92 per cent of total exports, while non-crude oil exports stood at N9.97tn. Of this amount, non-oil exports contributed N3.19tn, representing 15.05 per cent of total exports.

The latest figures highlight a widening trade imbalance between Nigeria and the United States, with imports from the country rising sharply while the value of Nigerian goods purchased by the US declined significantly from a year earlier.

In late July 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on Nigerian exports from 14 per cent in April to 15 per cent under his “reciprocal” tariff regime targeting countries that run surpluses against the US. Although crude oil—the backbone of Nigeria’s exports—has been exempted in some instances, uncertainty over tariff implementation has dampened US import demand, especially for non-oil goods that are now directly affected by higher duties.

For Washington, the move was part of a broader recalibration of trade policy designed to shield domestic industries and reduce global trade imbalances. However, for Nigeria, the immediate outcome is shrinking access to a key market and erosion of its once-comfortable surplus with the US.

Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, recently said the country would not be stampeded into retaliatory action but would continue on its path of reform and diversification.

“Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said.

She noted that while the United States remains an important trade partner, Nigeria is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and boosting non-oil exports.

“It’s mostly an energy trading relationship, but we are waiting to see what happens with AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE,” she added.

The minister stressed that Nigeria would seize opportunities for South-South cooperation, pursue export diversification, and reduce dependence on the American market.

The PUNCH recently reported that Nigeria was listed among 60 economies targeted by the United States for allegedly failing to impose and effectively enforce bans on the importation of goods produced with forced labour, a move that could trigger new 12.5 per cent tariffs on exports to the American market.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative announced recently that it had concluded investigations under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 and found that the failure of the affected economies to prohibit and effectively police the importation of goods made with forced labour was unreasonable and burdens US commerce.

As a result, the USTR proposed additional duties on products from the affected economies, including Nigeria, pending a public consultation process.

Reacting, a development economist and Chief Executive Officer of CSA Advisory, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said Nigeria should view the current trade situation as an opportunity to adapt.

“I think it’s a good time that this is happening to Nigeria. Trump’s tariff is not only for Nigeria. The advantage is that we are now exporting more overall, which is positive for us,” he said.

Ilias argued that Nigeria could use its position within BRICS and other international alliances to reduce vulnerability and build resilience. He added that with other countries such as India and China also facing US tariffs, Nigeria had an opening to forge new partnerships.

“We also have to start being on our own. We can trade with other partners and see, because other partners are also looking for partners. The tariff that is affecting us is also affecting others, so it may be a good opportunity,” he added.