Experts and civil society organizations are divided over calls for the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu to introduce palliatives or reinstate fuel subsidies to cushion the impact of soaring petrol prices triggered by rising global crude oil costs.

The spike in oil prices follows the 24-day conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, which has disrupted global energy markets and pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel— far above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64 per barrel.

While the surge has boosted Nigeria’s oil revenue in recent weeks, it has also worsened domestic economic conditions.

Petrol prices have jumped by about N492, or 56 percent, rising to between N1,367 and N1,390 per liter as of Monday, March 23, 2026, from N875 recorded before February 28.

The increase has triggered higher transport fares and food prices, further eroding the purchasing power of millions of Nigerians, particularly those earning the N70,000 minimum wage.

Amid growing hardship, some stakeholders have called on the government to introduce relief measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) has urged the Federal Government to adopt a coordinated policy framework to prevent energy-driven inflation.

In a statement, CPPE’s Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, warned that the Middle East crisis could reverse Nigeria’s disinflation trend, which stood at 15.06 percent in February.

Similarly, the president of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Joe Ajaero, said the government should not wait for industrial action before intervening.

“The government is making huge revenues from the crisis, which has also doubled the budget benchmark.

“The government should use part of these funds to cushion the impact on citizens,” he said.

Oyo State government recently approved N10,000 wage allowances for its civil servants to cushion the surge in fuel prices.

However, experts who spoke with DAILY POST remain divided on the appropriate response by the Nigerian government.

Fuel Subsidy return misconceived – Prof emeritus, Wumi provides alternative solutions

A professor emeritus of petroleum economics, Wumi Iledare, dismissed calls for the return of fuel subsidy, describing them as misguided and economically unsustainable.

“The position by some stakeholders advocating a return to fuel subsidy to cushion recent petrol price spike appears misconceived and difficult to justify.

“Consumer fuel subsidies tend to create market inefficiencies and significant welfare losses,” he told DAILY POST.

According to him, past subsidy regimes have diverted resources away from critical sectors such as healthcare, education, infrastructure and power.

“Evidence over the past two to three decades suggests that subsidy regimes often crowd out critical public investments,” he added, warning that a return to subsidy would be ill-advised.

Instead, Iledare recommended targeted social interventions, improved governance in the energy sector and strategic use of oil windfalls to strengthen economic resilience.

He also suggested policy options such as crude oil discounts for local refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, as well as the removal of import duties or Value Added Tax on petrol products to ease costs.

Tinubu’s govt lacks pro-people policies – Rafsanjani

On the other hand, the Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and Transparency International Nigeria, Auwal Rafsanjani, called for urgent pro-people policies to address the hardship.

“First and foremost, Nigerian leaders need to have a package for relief to mitigate the suffering of Nigerians in all ramifications,” he said.

Rafsanjani criticized what he described as the absence of “sympathetic” and “pro-poor” policies, warning that the situation could worsen if urgent action was not taken.

“The money from the subsidy removal has not translated into mitigating Nigerian suffering,” he said, adding that political priorities ahead of elections may be overshadowing governance.

Describing the situation as a disconnect between leaders and citizens, he stressed the need for inclusive policies that prioritize the welfare of ordinary Nigerians.

“We have a governance system and political leaders that are not pro-poor and not interested in putting systems in place to mitigate the suffering of Nigerians,” he said.