Nigeria’s prolonged power outages, affecting homes and businesses across the country, are primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal power plants, the Nigerian Independent System Operator announced on Friday.

The system operator attributed the sustained drop in electricity generation to severe fuel constraints affecting the national grid.

In a statement titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations” released on its official X handle, NISO said the average available generation currently hovers around 4,300 megawatts, far below Nigeria’s installed capacity.

The outages began in early February following scheduled maintenance on key gas supply infrastructure by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy, which temporarily disrupted gas deliveries to several thermal plants, triggering a nationwide decline in electricity generation.

The situation has persisted due to ongoing constraints in gas supply, worsening the power shortfall.

The NISO statement explained that the drop in supply is directly linked to severe gas constraints affecting thermal generating stations, which form the dominant share of Nigeria’s electricity generation mix.

“We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations,” the operator said.

It added that because thermal plants form the backbone of the national grid, any disruption in gas supply automatically translates into lower generation and reduced energy allocation to Distribution Companies.

“Given that thermal plants account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption or limitation in gas supply directly affects available generation capacity and overall grid output,” the statement added.

NISO provided operational data to illustrate the extent of the shortfall, stating that thermal power plants require an estimated 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) of gas per day to operate at optimal capacity. However, as of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at approximately 692.00 mmscf per day — representing less than 43% of the required volume.

“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output. The current low generation level is fundamentally driven by inadequate gas supply to thermal generating units, leading to reduced energy allocation to the DisCos,” NISO explained.

The shortfall implies that more than half of the gas needed to power thermal plants daily is unavailable, severely limiting electricity dispatch nationwide. With supply falling short of demand, NISO confirmed that it has been compelled to implement load shedding to stabilise the grid.

“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” the statement continued.

The operator expressed regret over the inconvenience to electricity consumers and market participants but assured that it is working with stakeholders to restore supply levels.

“While we regret the inconvenience this situation may cause electricity consumers and affected market participants, we will continue to work closely with relevant stakeholders to ensure full energy allocation as soon as gas supply improves and generation capacity is restored,” NISO stated.

PUNCH Online reports that Nigeria’s power sector remains heavily dependent on gas-fired thermal plants, which account for over 70% of grid electricity, with hydropower contributing the balance. This structural reliance means that disruptions in gas production, pipeline vandalism, maintenance shutdowns, pricing disputes, or payment shortfalls within the electricity value chain often trigger nationwide supply constraints.

Gas limitations are usually linked to upstream production challenges, legacy debts owed by GenCos to gas suppliers, foreign exchange pressures affecting pricing, and infrastructure bottlenecks. The sector has also struggled with liquidity issues, with generating companies repeatedly warning that inadequate remittances from DisCos affect their ability to pay gas suppliers.

Although recent reforms separated the system operator from the Transmission Company of Nigeria to strengthen grid management and market transparency, generation capacity remains largely tied to fuel availability.

With national peak demand estimated at over 20,000MW, the current 4,300MW average underscores the significant supply gap confronting Africa’s most populous nation.

A sustained improvement in electricity supply will depend not only on grid management reforms but also on securing stable and commercially viable gas supply arrangements for thermal plants. Until then, electricity consumers across Nigeria may continue to experience outages and rationing.