The Managing Director of Stallion Cardinal Homes, Dr Waliu Adeoye, has noted that rents in Lagos and Abuja have surged by up to 20 per cent annually in some locations, intensifying housing pressure on tenants amid widening affordability challenges.

In a statement, Adeoye noted that Nigeria’s real estate sector stands at a critical crossroads in 2026, with an unprecedented convergence of policy reforms that could redefine housing access if properly implemented.

He said, “Nigeria’s rental market is worsening, especially in Lagos and Abuja, where rents are rising by 15 to 20 per cent annually in some locations. Most urban Nigerians are renters, and the sector is in crisis, with the widespread demand for one to two years’ rent upfront posing a major barrier for households.

“The combination of new tax reforms, land digitalisation efforts, mortgage recapitalisation, and emerging housing data infrastructure represents the most comprehensive housing policy push Nigeria has seen in decades.

For the first time in a generation, we are seeing housing-related reforms advancing together rather than in silos. The real question is whether these policies will move beyond gazette pages to actual homes, mortgages, and secure land titles for Nigerians.

“Private developers also have a role to play, and Stallion Cardinal Homes has invested in capacity building, flexible payment structures, and site-and-service models to expand access. However, individual company efforts cannot replace systemic reform.”

Adeoye noted that the housing crisis was not primarily a technical problem.

He continued, “We know what works. What Nigeria lacks is sustained political commitment to implementation beyond announcement ceremonies and policy documents. Key initiatives currently underway include the implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, which took effect on 1 January; the launch of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated Real Estate Investment Fund; the rollout of the Land4Growth digital land titling programme; the recapitalisation of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria; and plans to operationalise a National Housing Data Centre.

Adeoye noted that despite repeated policy pronouncements over the years, Nigeria’s housing deficit has continued to widen, growing from about 17 million units a decade ago to an estimated 28 million units today; this time must be different.

On tax reforms, Adeoye said provisions allowing small businesses to deduct a portion of rent from taxable income and exempting parts of the construction value chain from certain taxes were positive steps. However, he warned that tax incentives alone would not resolve structural problems in the housing market.

“A rent deduction capped at N500,000 offers little relief to someone paying N3m annually; mortgage-related tax incentives are meaningless when mortgage penetration remains below one per cent of GDP and most Nigerians cannot access formal credit.”

He further identified land administration as the most significant constraint in the sector, noting that fewer than five per cent of land parcels in Nigeria are formally titled.

He added, “This means between $150bn and $300bn worth of property is effectively dead capital; it cannot be leveraged, mortgaged, or securely transferred. The Land4Growth programme, which targets the issuance of one million digital land titles across up to 20 states in its first phase, is potentially transformational if properly implemented.

“Digital land registries can reduce fraud, speed up transactions, provide collateral for lending, and strengthen state revenue through property taxation; the success would depend largely on state governments.

“For this to work, states must commit to transparency rather than see digitisation as another avenue for rent-seeking; most importantly, the programme must prioritise security of tenure, including for residents of long-established informal settlements.”

On mortgage financing, the Cardinal Homes boss said Nigeria’s mortgage-to-GDP ratio of about 0.5 per cent underscores the depth of the problem. Although the Federal Mortgage Bank offers loans at single-digit interest rates under the National Housing Fund, access remains limited.

“Fewer than 20,000 Nigerians access NHF-backed mortgages annually in a country of over 200 million people. The MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund, capitalised at N1tn, is a step forward but still excludes most Nigerians working in the informal economy.

“Over 90 per cent of our workforce have no payslips or formal documentation,” Adeoye said. “They are effectively invisible to the mortgage system despite having real incomes and real housing needs.”

While welcoming discussions around rental regulation, Adeoye cautioned against policies that could discourage housing supply.

“We need tenant protections, but we must avoid heavy-handed controls that push rental housing into informal arrangements,” he said, advocating for standardised lease agreements, dispute resolution mechanisms, and tax incentives for long-term affordable rentals. “He concluded.