The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off in Morocco with hosts leading the title race and a galaxy of stars including Victor Osimhen, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane battling for both silverware and individual honours, PETER AKINBO writes

As the tournament begins, the race for the Most Valuable Player award features seven leading candidates, whilst the battle for the trophy itself presents Morocco with a 19.1 per cent chance of success according to statistical analysis, followed by Egypt (12.4 per cent), Senegal (12.3 per cent), Algeria (12.0 per cent) and Nigeria (7.3 per cent).

The favourites

Morocco enter as overwhelming favourites, combining an 18-match winning streak with the advantage of home support. Walid Regragui’s side haven’t lost a competitive match since their shock 2-0 defeat to South Africa at the 2023 finals, and have scored freely while conceding just four goals during their remarkable run.

The Atlas Lions’ squad is built around players comfortable at the highest levels of European football. Achraf Hakimi, the reigning African Player of the Year, has been cleared to feature despite injury concerns, while Yassine Bounou provides proven tournament resilience in goal. Brahim Diaz adds creativity between the lines, and Youssef En-Nesyri provides aerial presence.

“Of course, there is additional pressure, but we’re not going to hide from it,” Regragui stated. “It’s a big responsibility, but it’s one we accept with pride. There are supporters who have dreamed of this trophy staying in Morocco since 1976.”

Morocco have only won the AFCON once, 49 years ago, and haven’t reached the semi-finals since the 2004 final. However, the 2022 World Cup semi-finalists are ranked 11th in the world, the best team in Africa, and haven’t lost a competitive fixture at home since 2009.

Egypt, seven-time champions, present the second-strongest challenge. Mohamed Salah remains central to their ambitions despite recent Liverpool struggles, having led the Reds’ title charge this season with 29 goals and 18 assists at age 32. The two-time African Footballer of the Year has never won AFCON, losing finals in 2017 and 2021, and this represents his final realistic chance.

Senegal, champions in 2022, boast one of the most balanced squads. Sadio Mane remains a decisive presence after winning the 2021 MVP award, and could become only the second player to win multiple AFCON MVP awards after Egypt’s Ahmed Hassan. However, at 32, this may be his last opportunity as well.

The contenders

Algeria arrive with a 12.0 per cent chance despite struggling to translate talent into recent tournament success, exiting at the group stage in back-to-back editions. Yet under Vladimir Petkovic, there is cautious belief that a more structured approach could restore balance.

Riyad Mahrez, 34, remains one of the continent’s most technically gifted players, excelling at isolating full-backs and creating shooting opportunities. Nigeria make the top five with a 7.3 per cent chance, balancing attacking strength and defensive fragility. Runners-up in 2023, the Super Eagles arrive with one of the competition’s most dangerous forward units. Victor Osimhen, with more goals for Nigeria than anyone except Rashidi Yekini, leads the line after scoring eight times in seven World Cup qualifiers games.

The Galatasaray forward brings explosive speed, aerial dominance and an ability to stretch defensive lines. At AFCON, where matches are intensely physical, Osimhen’s willingness to battle for every duel becomes a defining asset.

Should Osimhen falter, Nigeria can bank on 2024 African Player of the Year Ademola Lookman, whose fluid, incisive style suits knockout football. His composure in high-pressure situations was evident in his Europa League final hat-trick that led Atalanta to their first European title.

However, Nigeria’s path is complicated by defensive instability. A series of injuries have reduced continuity at the back, while William Troost-Ekong’s retirement removes experience from an already stretched unit. Group C, featuring Tunisia, Uganda and Tanzania, offers no margin for error.

Ivory Coast, defending champions, will be difficult to contain with Sebastien Haller, Amad Diallo and Wilfried Zaha available. Franck Kessie, who starred in their 2023 triumph, exerts midfield control through physical authority built over a storied career with AC Milan and Barcelona. The Elephants qualified for the World Cup without losing a single game and could become the first country in 15 years to win back-to-back AFCON titles.

Cameroon remain unpredictable after finishing second to Cape Verde in qualifying before being upset by DR Congo in the World Cup play-offs. Manchester United’s Bryan Mbeumo offers unpredictability, thriving on quick interchanges and sharp changes of direction, making him Cameroon’s best hope for a first AFCON title since 2017.