Nigeria’s Headline inflation has dropped to 14.45 per cent in the month of November, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The report which was released yesterday said the 14.45 percent is a reduction from the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 percent.

The figure is below the target of 15 per cent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had projected in 2025.

It would be recalled that President Bola Tinubu while presenting the budget assured that the inflation rate would decelerate from the 34.8 per cent it peaked in 2024 to 15 per cent.

Following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Nigeria witnessed 10.32 per cent of its inflation wiped off from the national database.

This was followed by the reduction of food prices, mostly grains, which has historically been the major cause of increase in inflation data.

What the new data is saying

The latest data showed November 2025 Headline inflation rate decreased by 1.6 percent compared to the October 2025 Headline inflation rate.

“On a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate was 20.15 percent lower than the rate recorded in November 2024 (34.60 percent). This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in November 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., November 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.”

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.22 percent, which was 0.29 percent higher than the rate recorded in October 2025 (0.93 percent). This means that in November 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in October 2025.


Food inflation increased on monthly analysis

It said Food inflation rate in November 2025 was 11.08 percent on a year-on-year basis.

“This was 28.85 percent points lower compared to the rate recorded in November 2024 (39.93 percent). The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year.”

But on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.13 percent, up by 1.5 percent compared to October 2025 (-0.37 percent).

It attributed this to the rate of increase in the average prices of tomatoes (dried), cassava tuber, periwinkle (shelled), grounded pepper, eggs, crayfish, melon (egusi), unshelled, oxtail, onions (fresh), etc.

“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending November 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.68 percent, which was 18.99 percent points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2024 (38.67 percent).

For “All items less farm produces and energy” or Core inflation, which excludes the rices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 18.04% in November 2025 on a year-on-year basis; showing a decline of 10.71% when compared to the 28.75% recorded in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.28% in November 2025, down by 0.14% compared to October 2025 (1.42%).

States’ profile

In sates, it said the All-Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Rivers (17.78 percent), Ogun (17.65 percent), and Ekiti (16.77 percent), while Plateau (9.13 percent), Kebbi (10.32 percent) and Katsina (10.60 percent) recorded the lowest rise in Headline inflation on a Year-on-Year basis.

“On a Month-on-Month basis, however, November 2025 recorded the highest increases in Bayelsa (6.58 percent), Gombe (5.11 percent) and Edo (4.45 percent), while Plateau (-2.54 percent), Delta (-2.38 percent), and Kaduna (-2.24 percent) recorded a decline in the Month-on-Month inflation.”

It added that food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (17.83 percent), Ogun (16.52 percent), and Rivers (16.11 percent), while Imo (3.52 percent), Katsina (3.65 percent), and Akwa Ibom (4.52 percent) recorded the slowest rise.

But on a Month-on-Month basis, it was highest in Yobe (9.52 percent), Katsina (6.61 percent) and Ondo (6.04 percent), while Imo (-6.49 percent), Nasarawa (-5.48 percent), and Enugu (-2.54 percent) recorded a decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis.

The report went on to state that on a year-on-year basis, Urban inflation rate was 13.61 percent, lower by 23.49 percent compared to the 37.10 percent recorded in November 2024.

But on a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 0.95 percent, down by 0.18 percent compared to October 2025 (1.14 percent).

The corresponding twelve-month average for the urban inflation rate was 20.80 percent in November 2025. This was 14.27 percent points lower compared to the 35.07 percent reported in November 2024.

Rural inflation rate was 15.15 percent on a year-on-year basis.

“This was 17.12 percent points lower compared to the 32.27 percent recorded in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.88 percent, up by 1.43 percent compared to October 2025 (0.45 percent).”

“The corresponding twelve-month average for the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 19.46 percent. This was 11.24% points lower compared to the 30.71% recorded in November 2024.”

Speaking with Daily Trust, the CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the figure is a good development, but there is the need to look at some critical areas as affordability is still an issue.

“We cannot wish it away. So we need to continue to look at how we can bring down the cost of food and transportation.”

He said the cost of energy, health care and the cost of education needs to be brought down together with other sectors that need special interventions by the government.

“The deceleration in inflation, from a macroeconomic point of view, is good. But when it comes to specifics, there are still issues of affordability compared to the real income of the citizens,” he said.

“We still have a major challenge which we need to address. This would require targeted intervention, possibly even subsidy in some areas. Like transportation, we need to do more subsidy for agriculture. We need to do more subsidy for health. We need to do more subsidy for education. These are specific targeted policies aside from the general macroeconomic conversations.”