Investment research and advisory firm Afrinvest has cast doubt on President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious projection that Nigeria’s economy would quadruple to $1tn by 2030, citing inflation, low oil output, and persistent power sector challenges as major obstacles.

At the recently concluded BRICS summit in Brazil, President Tinubu declared that Nigeria’s real GDP growth would reach 7.0 per cent by 2027 and that by 2030, the economy would expand fourfold from its current size of $251.0bn to $1.0tn.

His projection followed the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP and the series of economic reforms rolled out since mid-2023.

According to Afrinvest, the rebased figures put the country’s nominal Gross Domestic Product for 2024 at N372.8tn, representing a 34.4 per cent improvement over the pre-rebased figure of N277.5tn. In real terms, GDP was estimated at N217.8tn.

However, because of sharp exchange rate depreciation since mid-2023, the dollar equivalent of Nigeria’s GDP as of end-2024 stood at $251.0bn, about 50 per cent lower than levels before the administration began its reforms. Growth in 2024 was 3.8 per cent, the second highest since 2014.

While the rebasing improved the debt-to-GDP ratio to 39.6 per cent from 52.1 per cent, Afrinvest noted that “economic expansion remains moderate.” The National Bureau of Statistics reported GDP growth of 3.13 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, well below the pace required to achieve the President’s target.

Similarly, projections by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank place Nigeria’s growth at between 3.4 and 3.6 per cent in 2025, rising marginally to an average of 3.8 per cent by 2026–2027.

Afrinvest highlighted that since assuming office in May 2023, Tinubu has pursued bold reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, liberalisation of the FX market, and revenue mobilisation drives. On the monetary side, the Central Bank of Nigeria under Dr Olayemi Cardoso maintained tight policy measures to fight inflation while clearing the FX backlog to restore credibility to the market.

The firm acknowledged that these efforts had created a foundation for growth, particularly in the services sector, driven by ICT, financial services, and transport. Revenue mobilisation also improved significantly, with gross and net revenue available for budget rising by 126.5 per cent and 124.4 per cent in 2024 to N34.7tn and N28.6tn, respectively.

Despite these gains, Afrinvest warned that structural bottlenecks continue to constrain economic potential. Inflation, especially in food prices, remains elevated, eroding household purchasing power. The power sector is still plagued by liquidity shortfalls, inconsistent tariffs, and arrears to suppliers, while oil production lags due to theft, vandalism, and underinvestment.

“Notwithstanding the ongoing effort of the administration and the mixed outcome of reforms thus far, the President’s call for a 7.0 per cent GDP growth by 2027 and the quadrupling of the current GDP size to $1.0tn by 2030 lacks fundamental drivers,” Afrinvest stated in the report.

The firm stressed that for Nigeria to meet Tinubu’s vision, nominal GDP must surpass $800.0bn by end-2026, implying no less than 40 per cent nominal growth in both 2025 and 2026. Alternatively, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate would need to strengthen to above N500.00/$ from 2027 to make the target feasible.

Afrinvest, therefore, urged the government to accelerate reforms across multiple fronts, including boosting oil output to at least 2.0 mbpd, enforcing cost-reflective electricity tariffs alongside subsidies for vulnerable households, ensuring FX stability, implementing tax reforms, and tackling food security through safety nets and agricultural security interventions.