Despite the fourth consecutive decline in the country’s inflation rate, Nigerians and businesses are yet to experience the much expected relief.

Nigeria’s inflation dropped to 21.88 percent in July from 22.22 percent in June. A decline has been the case since April 2025, when it stood at 23.7 percent on a month-on-month basis.

The drops have excited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s team as they reflect on their principal’s leadership gains in the last two years.

This is also the case with the country’s Gross Domestic Product, which grew to N372.8 trillion in 2024 after the rebase in July 2025.

Nigeria’s GDP, the inflation rate was also rebased in January this year, resulting in a sharp decline of the year-on-year headline inflation rate to 24.48 percent from 34.80 percent.

Perhaps, the reason Nigeria’s former Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the country’s economy is stabilising, during her recent visit to President Tinubu.

Meanwhile, while the rebase led to a significant drop in the standing of the country’s inflation, Nigerians and businesses have continued to experience worsening economic realities.

Beautiful Statistics but Hungry Nigerians

Food prices, interest rates (27.50 percent in July), energy prices, and transportation costs have remained elevated.

A local 50-kilogramme bag of local rice costs between N69,000 to N75,000 in parts of Abuja and Lagos.

Also fuel price is around N865 to N925 per litre in Lagos and Abuja. Cooking gas is around N1,000 to N1,200 per kilogramme. Band A electricity tariff stood at N209.50 to N231.79 per kilowatt-hour. Transportation fare whether by road or air has skyrocketed. These are some of the realistic indicators, which vary from the beautiful ‘too-good statistics by the National Bureau of Statistics.’

Economic experts divided over Nigeria’s inflation

Reacting in separate interviews with DAILY POST on Monday, Mazi Okechukwu Unegbu, a former president of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), the Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo and a renowned economist, Prof. Segun Ajibola expressed mixed reactions about the country’s July inflation rate.

On his part, Unegbu insisted that there is a wide difference between the reality faced by Nigerians and businesses and the NBS’s consumer price index and inflation figure.

He dismissed the inflation figures as presented by the country’s statistical agency, NBS.

“There is a wide difference between the inflation figure by NBS and the reality on the ground.

“The government believes in statistics, ignoring realities. The NBS’s report is so disturbing.

“It is a beautiful report, but at the end of the day, there is nothing to write home about,” he told DAILY POST.

He urged that “the government has to address the hunger in the land, not celebrate beautiful statistics. It needs to reconsider some of its economic policies, the interest rate, and agricultural policies.

“It is unfortunate that political jobbers praise the president that he is doing very, very well; however, some of us who study economics see it the other way,” he told DAILY POST.

Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, reiterated that Nigeria’s food inflation has continued to rise due to insecurity in the country’s agrarian areas and exchange rate challenges.

“The core inflation declined for the fourth consecutive period due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s position on MPR and other interventions in the economy.

“However, food inflation continues to rise due to insecurity in agrarian areas and exchange rate challenges for imported agricultural inputs.

“Imported food prices are also maintaining a high rate, while logistics costs, especially energy costs and transportation of agricultural products, constitute a major factor affecting food inflation.

“The federal government needs to do more in pushing its agricultural policies to reduce the causative factors affecting food inflation,” he said.

Earlier, DAILY POST reported that the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise noted that food price hikes persist despite the decline in the country’s inflation rate for the fourth consecutive time.

Meanwhile, a renowned economist and former president and chairman of the Council of the Chartered Institute of Bankers, Prof. Segun Ajibola, gave reasons for the decline in the country’s inflation.

“The headline inflation figure is derived by computing changes in the prices of a basket of consumable items (consumer price index). The figure depends on the items contained in the basket.

“At times, the behavioural pattern of consumable items varies significantly. And since the basket is not all-inclusive, a drop in prices of the items in the basket so weighed may signal lower inflation, while the prices of the items not in the basket may remain high.

“Again, NBS tries to conduct a market survey to have firsthand information about the market prices. It then depends on the prices in the market so surveyed, which may vary from those of other locations not visited.

“We do know that prices of food items vary from place to place in Nigeria.

“The inflation figure rolled out may therefore not be representative of the real situation across board.

“It is an estimate that may vary from reality. NBS tries to manage such variances by being consistent with the contents of the basket so measured.

“But then, the error of commission and omission remains,” he told DAILY POST.