Demola Olarewaju, an aide to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has revealed the reason why candidates endorsed by Peter Obi cannot win elections.

According to him, such candidates can only win an election if Obi who endorsed them is also on the ballot.

Olarewaju said this after a candidate Obi endorsed for the by-election in his Anambra home state lost to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

This was as he made a case for an Atiku-Obi presidential ticket for the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

He shared on X, "Firstly, as a political strategist, I understand the importance of ADC contesting elections, the prior structure which had likely produced aspirants and attraction of many new entrants with the ADC as a platform that could produce upsets and defeat PDP/APC in certain places.

"Secondly, I commend the courage and boldness of coalition leaders like Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai etc in owning the platform and campaigning for candidates openly in their strongholds. From PO, it was a bold indicative statement for the future but bye-elections (as well as off-cycle elections) usually have their own unique playbooks - they play to the strength of the ruling party in that locality.

"Ruling parties for off-cycle elections go shopping in Abuja for the most favourable electoral and security officers to even the odds in their favour. No surprises there and a few analysts have also pointed out the above two points.

"My third observation however may upset some trado-political thinkers and here I advise you stop reading if you’re one. Also stop reading at this point if you still nurture the foolish fallback idea of 'Let Tinubu Have It'.

"The Saturday bye-elections are proof that political leverage is personal and not transferable. Obi can raise the hand of anybody in his own stronghold but if he is not on the ballot directly alongside other candidates on a party platform, those candidates may lose woefully.

"Take it further: Atiku and El-Rufai may endorse Obi and campaign for him in the North but if Atiku is not on the ballot directly, his votes will not necessarily translate into victory over Tinubu.

"Therefore: perish this thought that Atiku should withdraw and endorse Obi - Tinubu will sweep the North.

"Perish also the thought that Obi doesn’t need to be on the ballot: the opposition coalition will fail without him.

"I respect the aspiration of anyone else running for the party ticket but we must go back to the basics, back to the formational thought behind this coalition:

"Atiku ran in 2023 against popular ethnic sentiments and internal party sabotage, yet he won 12 states, 7 of which were APC states - 6.98m votes. More of those votes came by direct goodwill and mobilisation than by PDP strength.

"Obi ran in 2023 with the momentum of a Southern Presidency and a departure from establishment politics, and he won 12 states, without his own party structure - 6.1m votes.

"My conclusion is that ADC must field both of them on the ballot together, harnessing their strengths rather than sacrificing one for the other.

"Atiku cannot inherit the 2023 votes of Obi even if Obi campaigns for him in Onitsha. Obi cannot inherit the 2023 votes of Atiku even if Atiku campaigns for him in Yola - political influence or leverage is not transferable in politics unless you control other electoral factors as a ruling party.

"Atiku has to be on the ballot and Obi also has to be there for the opposition coalition to have a chance. Respect to the aspiration of others but these are the two currently tested candidates who have pulled numbers most recently, and against terrible odds in both instances.

"For Atiku-Obi to work, the power arrangement has to be clear: Atiku must not be made to seem like a lame duck while Obi must not be made to look potentially redundant. The precedent of Atiku’s own Vice-Presidency is there and with the evidence of his teeming voting base and maverick streak, I refuse to believe Obi can be a caged VP. Their campaign must run simultaneously as a 2-in-1 Presidency where you “Vote One and Get One Free”. Stop the tag-along style, Obi should stay in the SE campaigning hard for the ticket while Atiku does the same in the North.

"For me this is the only way for ADC in 2027 and hard as this ticket may seem at first, it is even far easier than the second task I see before ADC:

"The party must position itself as a different brand from the APC and the PDP; and so far: not yet."

ASA