Nigeria is on the cusp of a major fuel price surge, as petrol landing costs edge closer to, and may soon surpass, N900 per litre.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has already raised pump prices to as high as N955/litre in some locations, with independent marketers following suit.

Key drivers behind soaring fuel costs

If this trend continues, consumers across the country could see petrol prices cross the N1,000 mark, a psychological threshold that signals deepening cost-of-living pressures.

Several interconnected factors are fueling the latest round of petrol price increases:

Crude Oil Price Surge: The global rise in crude oil prices—approaching $979.75 per metric tonne on benchmark indices—has significantly raised the cost of refined fuel imports.

Dangote Refinery’s Rate Hike: In July, Dangote Refinery raised its ex-depot price from N820 to N858 per litre, setting a new benchmark that other marketers are now adopting.

Exchange Rate Volatility: With the Naira depreciating against the dollar, the cost of importing refined fuel has jumped, adding more pressure on landing costs and final pump prices.

Estimated landing costs and market reaction

According to recent market data, petrol landing costs have risen steadily, from N848.18 on July 22 to N890.98 by July 30, 2025.

With crude prices continuing to surge and Dangote’s new pricing in place, analysts project that landing costs may now hit N920–N960 per litre.

These higher input costs are already trickling down to consumers, reflected in NNPCL’s adjusted pricing strategy and similar moves by independent retailers.

Dangote refinery’s influence on pricing

Despite being touted as a game-changer for domestic supply, the Dangote Refinery has yet to significantly reduce fuel costs for end-users.

Instead, its ex-depot price increases are reinforcing market-wide hikes, pushing retailers to raise their pump prices to remain competitive.

The refinery’s dominant position in the local fuel value chain means its pricing decisions have an outsized influence on the broader market.

Currency woes and import dependency

Nigeria’s continued dependence on imported fuel exacerbates the crisis. Even with local refining capacity expanding, a large share of the country’s demand is still met via imports.

As long as the Naira struggles against the dollar, and local refiners operate in a FX-constrained environment, petrol prices are unlikely to stabilise.

A looming crisis for consumers

If the current trajectory holds, petrol may cross N1,000 per litre in many parts of Nigeria in the coming weeks.

For a population already grappling with inflation, high transport costs, and weak purchasing power, this development could spell widespread economic hardship.

Until currency stability and refined product availability improve, fuel price shocks may become the new norm.

Experts weigh in

Meanwhile, energy policy analyst and Team Lead at Platforms Africa, Adeola Yusuf, said the volatility of fuel prices will continue in the foreseeable future due to the politics attached to crude oil prices.

“Crude oil price is highly sensitive to international politics such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, trade and tariff wars, among other issues, he said.

He disclosed that the Nigerians should not expect stable fuel prices soon, as that has long gone with the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector.

“Nigeria is operating a deregulated market and prices fluctuate based on market dynamics,” Yusuf said.

Petrol imports surge by 71%

A prior report by Legit.ng disclosed that fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows a sharp rise in fuel imports, with 71.38% of petrol consumed in May and June 2025 sourced from abroad.

Only 28.62% came from local refineries—chiefly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Out of 3.25 billion litres of petrol used in the two months, 2.32 billion litres were imported.

Despite local refining capacity, marketers continue to prefer imported products, largely due to lower landing costs.

OPEC+ raises oil production to boost supply

Legit.ng earlier reported that the price of petrol in Nigeria is fast approaching N900 per litre, following a steady rise in global crude oil prices and adjustments at local depots.

Depot operators have raised ex-depot prices from an average of N820 to N870 between Thursday and Sunday, Legit.ng reported.

At the same time, some filling stations in Lagos and Ogun states have already begun retailing fuel at N900 to N910 per litre.