Why Tinubu was elected - U.S.-based observer mission

American diplomat and foreign observer Jonnie Carson yesterday explained why Asiwaju Bola Tinubu won the February 25 presidential election.

He said the All Progressives Congress (APC) standard bearer achieved victory because of his formidable political party, access to resources for oiling his political machinery and sufficient spade work at the grassroots.

Carson, an Executive Officer of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), reflected on the historic poll when Information and Culture Minister Alhaji Lai Mohammed visited the institute to engage with its officials.

The minister condemned critics of the election results.

Tinubu defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and his Labour Party (LP) counterpart Peter Obi.

According to foreign observers, the poll was credible, free and fair.

Apart from scoring the majority votes in the Northwest, Northcentral and Southwest, the APC standard bearer came second in the Northeast, Southeast and Southsouth geopolitical zones.

Carson co-led the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) on an international election observation mission to Nigeria during the poll.

The NDI-IRI was one of the 229 groups that were accredited by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to observe the 2023 election.

They were made up of 196 national and 33 international observer groups.

The 229 groups deployed 144,800 national and 2,113 international observers for the polls.

He maintained that Tinubu undoubtedly won the election, adding that he will be sworn in on May 29, unless something dramatic happens in the court.

Highlighting the three factors underlying Tinubu’s victory, the diplomat said: “Do you know why he won? He got the money, he had the best national organisation that worked for him and the ground game.”

Carson emphasised that for a candidate to win an election in Nigeria, like a lot of democracies in the globe, the three factors, including substantial and significant financial resources, were crucial.

The foreign observer also said no candidate can win without a national working organisation and grassroots acceptance.

He said while Tinubu had all three criteria in his kitty during the polls, the other major contenders did not have all.

Speaking specifically on the LP candidate, Carson said: “On the part of Mr Peter Obi, he did not have the ground game and a national organisation.

“Obi is, however, very popular, particularly among the young, educated, urban and sophisticated.”

Carson said the presidential election was one of the most competitive polls in Nigeria and Africa.

He, however, observed that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) needed to up its game.

He said: “Nigeria deserves the very best electoral process.

“To me, the problem is not with Tinubu and the other candidates.”

Carson hailed President Muhammadu Buhari for his commitment to delivering a free and fair election for Nigeria.

He said the president “is a man of outstanding integrity”, adding that he demonstrated the attribute in past elections.

The minister said considering where INEC was coming from and where it was today, there were massive improvements in the conduct of the 2023 polls.

Conceding that there was room for improvement, the minister said the introduction of a new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) technology by the commission underpinned the credibility of the elections.

Mohammed said BVAS cut out fraudulent votes, ghost voters and multiple votes.

He recalled that the election was conducted against the backdrop of fuel shortage, mounting insecurity and a poorly timed cash swap policy.

The minister also had engagements with the Council on Foreign Relations, a well-versed think-tank on African affairs and foreign relations chaired by a Nigerian, Dr Ebenezer Obadare.

He was also at the Reuters News Agency; The Politico, an international political newspaper, and Zenger News, a channel that publishes its contents on Forbes.

During his respective interactions with the think tanks and international media, the minister presented the facts of the just-concluded polls against skewed narratives of the opposition and naysayers.

The interactions also delved into the economy and foreign affairs.

At Reuters, the agency’s recent investigation of alleged secret programmes of coerced abortion of women and girls freed from insurgents’ captivity was discussed.