Tribunal: 5 critical factors why Tinubu might be unseated as President of Nigeria

As the presidential election petition tribunal reaches the penultimate stages, all eyes are on the five-member panel of the appellate court to give its final verdict after admitting several pieces of evidence, listening to witnesses and the petitioners' arguments.

However, Nigerians are on high alert, filled with anxiety but patiently waiting for the ruling of the most critical and crucial court case in the history of Nigeria's democracy.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on the other hand, seems somewhat unpredictable, following a series of petitions filed against him and the evidence presented before the presidential election tribunal.

However, his seat in Aso Rock is yet to be guaranteed as strong allegations against him, and evidence might prove pivotal to the tribunal's final judgement.

In this short piece, Legit.ng highlights five critical factors that could make Tinubu lose his grip on power.

1. Questionable conduct of the election by INEC

This has been a topic that has been ongoing for months since the conclusion of the presidential election. Many political pundits and public affairs commentators have often criticised the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the poor conduct of the presidential election.

Most recently, the European Union (EU) election observer team released a report revealing that the election lacked credibility and transparency. The report also revealed that the credibility of INEC's officials and its leadership were questionable.

The report says: “Closer to the polls some started to doubt INEC’s administrative and operational efficiency and in-house capacity. "Public confidence gradually decreased and was severely damaged on 25 February due to its operational failures and lack of transparency."

To further enunciate this factor, the media advisor to the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Paul Ibe, told Legit.ng that the evidence presented before the tribunal also highlighted and expressly dwelled on INEC's complacency and lack of transparency.

"The Justice of the appeal court has looked at all of the evidence, and I believe that they will render justice on the account of the evidence that the election was fraudulent. That the election was not conducted in compliance with the Electoral Act and the INEC guideline..."

2. Alleged drug trafficking This has been a long-standing issue for President Tinubu as both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi filed this petition against him at the presidential election tribunal. It was gathered that Tinubu's legal team admitted at the tribunal that their client forfeited $460,000 to the American government over the offence of narcotics trafficking and money laundering.

In the final address of Atiku, it was clearly stated that on account of this admittance, Tinubu had: "No basis for contesting for Nigeria's Presidency, let alone being declared as the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria."

3. Dual citizenship

As part of the petition filed by Atiku and the evidence presented before the tribunal, President Tinubu was accused of possessing the citizenry passport of Guinea.

An earlier report by Legit.ng revealed that the legal team of President Tinubu admitted that he held the citizenry passport of another country.

However, their argument in court stated that President Tinubu had forfeited his citizenry since 2020. The petition in court holds the argument that it was a gross violation of the electoral act that should be considered to disqualify him.

4. Niger Coup and ECOWAS struggle

Tinubu, who currently chairs ECOWAS, appears to find it difficult to command authority at the sub-regional level following the recent coup in the Republic of Niger.

Tinubu ordered the return of power to civilian rule with a seven days timeline, but the military junta in Niger said he was not willing to comply.

A South African TV even analysed that the questionable victory of Tinubu at the presidential polls is a contributory factor to the weakness of his authority at the sub-regional level.

The military leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso have also warned President Tinubu to stay clear of Niger's business.

5. Atiku won 21 states as stipulated by INEC

This is a significant case Atiku and PDP have continually harped upon for the tribunal to uphold. As contained in Atiku's final address, through his lead counsel, Chris Uche SAN, said that INEC'S assertion that he won in 21 States was neither disputed, retracted, debunked, nor claimed to be an error through the proceedings of the tribunal, so far.

This factor has been predicted to prove pivotal to the tribunal's judgement.