Tinubu, Atiku or Peter Obi? - 4 international analysts predict winner of 2023 presidential election

Ahead of the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, some international data reporting firms have predicted the winner.

The predictions so far indicate a three-horse race as many of the reports focus on three contenders: Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

While some predicted a surprise win for Obi, others stated that Tinubu of the ruling party would win the election.

1. Bloomberg Poll predicts Peter Obi’s victory

An opinion poll commissioned by Bloomberg News, an international news agency headquartered in the United States, placed Peter Obi as the leading candidate in the race to become Nigeria’s next president in 2023.

The result of the poll published by Bloomberg on Wednesday, September 28, indicates that a clear majority of respondents said they intend to vote for Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate.

“Of the 92% of participants who said they’ve decided how to vote, 72% named Obi as their first choice,” the survey conducted for Bloomberg News by Premise Data Corp states.

2. Economist Intelligence Unit predicts Tinubu’s victory

Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate, will win the 2023 presidential election, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicted in a recent country report.

The research and analysis division of The Economist magazine stated the chances of the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, have been significantly reduced by the internal crisis in the opposition party.

The report added that Atiku's chances have been narrowed by the growing popularity of the Labour Party candidate, Obi, in the southeast region, which is traditionally the powerhouse of the PDP.

3. Fitch says Tinubu will defeat Obi, Atiku, others

Tinubu was also tipped to win the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria by Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research.

However, the firm, which is a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating organisation, also added that Tinubu’s victory would trigger social instability and protests because of his party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

4. Sofala Partners predicts victory for Peter Obi in Osun state

Unlike others, Sofala Partners limits its prediction to Osun state in the southwest.

The poll conducted by London-based survey company, Emani for U.K Strategic Advisory firm, Sofala Partners, tipped Obi to win Osun state.

Sofala Partners said it chose Osun for the poll because the state is not a political stronghold of any political party. Osun, according to the firm, “provides a particularly interesting lens through which to explore Obi’s appeal.

“In the July 2022 election for Osun governor, a PDP candidate ousted the APC incumbent, while the candidate for Obi’s LP secured less than 0.5% of the vote. This suggests that Osun is neither a political stronghold for the major parties nor a very promising playing field for the LP,” the firm said.

It added that Osun was selected for the poll because of the state's religious diversity.

ANAP Foundation-commissioned poll predicts Obi’s victory

Meanwhile, Legit.ng earlier reported that a poll by NOI Polls commissioned by ANAP Foundation, a Nigerian non-governmental organisation, predicted victory for Obi.

“The results showed a significant lead for Mr Peter Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him,” the foundation said as it announced the poll in September.