Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow at about 4.3 per cent this year, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant sectors, PwC Nigeria has projected.

Headline inflation is also projected to moderately ease, supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) tight monetary policy stance, rebasing effects, and improved stability in the foreign exchange market.

PwC Nigeria, which gave these projections in its ‘Economic Outlook 2026’ released on Wednesday, also said the naira is expected to remain broadly stable through 2026, underpinned by ongoing CBN reforms and improved portfolio inflows.

With regards to interest rate, the PwC report said with inflation trending down, the CBN may cautiously ease its monetary policy stance this year.

The report, however, said fiscal sustainability risks are expected to persist, driven by low revenue to GDP, fiscal leakages, higher spending and elevated debt service obligations.

PwC Nigeria said with fiscal constraints persisting, they reinforce the importance of capital efficiency and balance-sheet discipline.

Against this backdrop, PwC Nigeria highlights practical imperatives for business leaders in 2026: making selective investment bets in attractive sectors and regions, and scenario-planning for macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.

Other imperatives for business leaders include adapting business models and cost structures for resilience, accelerating digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, and strengthening regulatory and tax compliance as reforms move from design to execution.

PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 examines how recent gains in macroeconomic stability are reshaping the operating environment for businesses, investors, and markets as Nigeria moves into 2026.

The report, which was made available to The Nation, finds that Nigeria recorded improvements in macroeconomic stability in 2025 following key monetary and foreign-exchange reforms, with inflation easing, exchange-rate conditions stabilising, and external reserves strengthening.

PwC’s Outlook highlights how this stability is influencing strategic business choices this year, particularly around investment, cost and funding decisions, and regulatory, tax, and digital priorities.

Country Senior Partner, PwC Nigeria, Sam Abu, said: “PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 provides forward-looking analysis of key macroeconomic indicators and what they signal for the economy and for business leaders.

“Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year. The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026. For companies, this stability provides a more predictable operating environment for planning, investment, and growth decisions.”

The Outlook identifies seven key issues shaping Nigeria’s economic performance in the year ahead, spanning global and domestic forces.

These include monetary policy effectiveness, fiscal sustainability and reform execution, global economic and geopolitical dynamics, domestic security and social pressures, uneven sectoral growth, consumer affordability constraints, and the expanding role of the digital economy and Artificial Intelligence.

Also speaking on the outlook, Partner and Chief Economist, PwC Nigeria, Olusegun Zaccheaus, said: “The seven themes in the Outlook show how global and domestic forces will shape economic performance in 2026.

“Globally, growth is projected at around 3.1 per cent, while merchandise trade growth slows to about 0.5 per cent, keeping oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign inflows as key channels influencing Nigeria’s growth and FX liquidity.

“Domestically, improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing, cost, and funding signals, even as fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to shape sector outcomes.”

According to Zaccheaus, “growth is more likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, placing a premium on disciplined capital allocation and sector selection.”