Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector is witnessing growing disagreement among oil marketers following the Federal Government’s suspension of petrol import licences, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Friday raised its depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) to N1,175 per litre amid rising global crude oil prices.

Dangote reversed an earlier reduction of N100 announced earlier in the week, as a fresh surge in global crude oil prices pushes up refining costs. The price adjustment also affected the refinery’s coastal supply price, which rose from N1,378,548 per metric tonne to N1,512,648 per metric tonne, according to an official notice issued to petroleum marketers on Friday.

A senior official who spoke with one of our correspondents anonymously because he was not authorised to speak confirmed on Friday that the refinery adjusted the price upward after briefly reducing the ex-depot price to N1,075 per litre on March 10, 2026, a move that had triggered increased buying activity among depot operators.

The official confirmed the latest adjustment during a telephone conversation. “Yes, it is true,” the official said when asked about the upward price review. The new pricing structure was formally communicated to marketers in a notice signed by the refinery’s Group Commercial Operations Department.

The notice read, “Dear esteemed customer, please be informed that due to the current global geo-political situation, which has further escalated, the PMS gantry and coastal price has been reviewed and updated.”

According to the notice, the gantry price, which represents the cost of petrol loaded directly into trucks at the refinery depot, has increased from N1,075 per litre to N1,175 per litre. Similarly, the coastal supply price was adjusted upward from N1,378,548 per metric tonne to N1,512,648 per metric tonne.

The change represents a N134,100 increase per metric tonne, equivalent to about 9.7 per cent. “Please note that this new gantry and coastal price, as detailed above, will be applied to all unloaded PMS allocation effective 1 pm today, March 13, 2026,” the notice stated.

The price increase comes just days after the refinery reduced the ex-depot price of petrol by N100 or about 8.5 per cent, from N1,175 per litre to N1,075 per litre earlier in the week. Checks on Petroleumprice.ng also confirmed the development, indicating that the price revision had disrupted trading activities across several petroleum depots.

According to market sources quoted by the platform, the sudden upward adjustment prompted depot operators in multiple hubs to temporarily suspend sales as they awaited clarity on the new pricing structure.

“Depot owners across multiple hubs have temporarily halted transactions following the refinery’s upward review of the ex-depot price,” a market source familiar with the development said.

Similarly, loading operations at the refinery were also temporarily suspended to allow for stock reconciliation and alignment with the new pricing framework. A refinery source explained that the decision was largely driven by rising global crude prices, which directly affect refining costs.

“The revision reflects the surge in global crude oil prices. Brent crude moved from around $91 per barrel to about $100 per barrel, and that increase feeds directly into the cost of refining,” the source said.

Marketers disagree

Amidst this, stakeholders, including energy experts, economists, and Nigerian workers, have raised alarm over the suspension of petrol imports by the Federal Government, urging urgent price regulation as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery takes command of Nigeria’s N14.4tn petrol market, signalling a major shake-up in the nation’s energy sector.

Oil marketers have also expressed divergent views over the impact of the halt in petrol import licences and the production capacity of the Dangote refinery to satisfy local fuel needs, following claims that the facility now supplies the bulk of the country’s fuel demand.

The disagreement comes after the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicated that local production accounted for a significant share of petrol supply in February. As a result, the regulator said it refused to grant import licences in the first quarter of 2026.

While the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria backed the ban on fuel imports and acknowledged the capacity of the 650,000-barrel Dangote refinery to supply the petrol needed by the country, many major petrol dealers and importers said the country still needed imports to make up for the shortfalls.

Speaking with one of our correspondents, the Vice President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Ahmed Fashola, supported the regulator’s decision to halt the issuance of petrol import licences, saying the country should prioritise domestic refining.

Fashola said the regulator’s figures should be trusted, noting that the authority has access to accurate data on fuel supply and consumption. “Well, we support and agree with the NMDPRA and their report because they have the information and the data. So, there is no need for anybody to doubt that” he said.

According to him, Nigeria’s growing reliance on local supply represents progress for the downstream petroleum sector. “If today we are able to achieve 90 or 92 per cent of our supply locally, I think we are doing well. We should give it to Dangote,” he stated.

Fashola added that the emergence of the refinery has helped shield Nigerians from potential spikes in fuel prices amid global geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With the fight among the US, Iran, and Israel, Fashola argued that the price of petrol would have risen to N3,000 or N4,000 per litre.

“Because, if not for Dangote, with the little disruption and the crisis between the United States and Iran, by now we would have seen a lot of queues and petrol selling maybe for N3,000 or N4,000 per litre,” he said.

He also expressed support for the suspension of import licences, describing it as necessary to encourage domestic refining capacity. “So, we should be grateful to Dangote. And we have to support it. We have to encourage him to do more. And we equally support the issue of stopping the importation licence. It’s the way to go. We have to support our local production. We have to encourage the refiners. We have to support them in any way for them to succeed. When they succeed, the country also succeeds,” Fashola added.

However, some major dealers and importers who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid being victimised questioned claims that the refinery supplied the entire national demand for petrol during the period.

One of the marketers said figures published by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that the Dangote refinery produced an average of about 36 million litres of petrol per day in February, while Nigeria’s daily consumption stood at about 56 million litres during the month, asking the regulator to disclose the source of the over 20 million litres per day if imports were just 3 million litres per day.

“The authority just published the numbers for last month, for February. It’s everywhere now; it’s all over the press. The regulator said Dangote produced an average of 36 million litres per day, and the country was consuming over 50 million litres per day. Does that show that Dangote supplied the whole country? No. There was a shortfall,” the dealer said.

The marketer added that the figures released by the regulator clearly indicated a gap between supply and demand. “In their own report, they said Dangote supplied about 36 million litres per day, while the country’s consumption was about 56 million litres per day. What does that mean? That was a shortfall,” another marketer corroborated.

Another marketer also dismissed claims that the refinery supplied the entire domestic demand, saying, “So when people say Dangote supplied the entire country, that is not correct based on the regulator’s own numbers, or does that mean the regulator is lying? We are not against local refining, but there should be importation to save the market from monopoly.”

Nigeria has historically depended heavily on imported refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity, despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers. However, the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery, widely regarded as Africa’s largest refinery, has significantly altered the dynamics of the downstream sector.

The facility, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, began supplying petrol to the Nigerian market in September 2024, raising expectations that the country could gradually reduce or eliminate fuel imports.

Lately, the NMDPRA said that increasing domestic production is helping to reduce reliance on imports, with local supply accounting for a large portion of national consumption in January and February. The regulator has also hinted that petrol import licences may no longer be necessary if local refineries are able to consistently meet domestic demand.

Industry stakeholders, however, say the transition from import dependence to full local supply will take time, as domestic refining capacity continues to ramp up to meet Nigeria’s estimated daily petrol consumption.

On Wednesday, The PUNCH reported that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority confirmed that it had not issued any import licence for petrol this year, saying that it was no longer needed because local production now meets national requirements.

Data from the NMDPRA, a Federal Government agency, showed that the Dangote refinery accounted for about 92 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol supply in February, as the regulatory agency stopped the importation of petrol.

Figures released in the February 2026 fact sheet by the NMDPRA showed that local refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day of petrol in February 2026, while imports contributed just three million litres per day.

This brought the total national daily supply for February to 39.5 million litres, with domestic refining accounting for roughly 92 per cent of the volume, a sharp shift from the long-standing dependence on imported fuel. The data indicates a drastic drop in imports compared with the previous month.

The Dangote refinery is the only plant producing petrol currently in Nigeria. Other modular refineries produce diesel.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive of the NMDPRA, Saidu Mohammed, earlier warned against attempts to push Nigeria back into an era of heavy petrol importation, saying the country must sustain the gains made in domestic refining.

Mohammed confirmed The PUNCH’s exclusive report that Nigeria did not issue a single licence for the importation of petrol this year, as part of efforts to strengthen local refining capacity.

He made this known on Tuesday while receiving a delegation from PUNCH Nigeria Limited at the agency’s headquarters in Abuja during a courtesy visit aimed at strengthening strategic partnerships between the media organisation and key institutions in the energy sector.

Speaking during the meeting, Mohammed said some interests were still pushing for the continuation of large-scale fuel importation despite the country’s progress in boosting domestic refining capacity.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that global oil prices rose sharply in recent hours following escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Iran, and Israel. The geopolitical crisis has heightened fears of disruptions to global crude supply, particularly around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil shipments pass daily.

Concerns about possible disruptions in the chokepoint have pushed global oil benchmarks higher, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel during the week. Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, Bonny Light, also surged above the psychological $100 per barrel threshold amid the volatility in global energy markets.

The rally reflects a growing “war premium” in global oil prices as traders' factor in the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the peak of the market rally earlier in the week, Nigerian crude prices briefly climbed to about $120 per barrel before easing to around $100 per barrel as markets entered a consolidation phase.