Nigeria produced a total of 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, according to crude oil and condensate production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

According to the NUPRC report, this translates to an average of about 1.46 million barrels per day. Despite intermittent improvements, the output level meant that Africa’s largest oil producer remained below its 1.5 million barrels per day crude oil quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, achieving about 97 per cent of the quota during the 10-month period.

A breakdown of the figures shows that January recorded the highest crude oil production during the period at 47.70 million barrels, while February was the weakest month at 41.02 million barrels.

Output recovered in March and April and remained relatively strong through May, June, and July before easing in August and September. Crude oil production in October stood at 43.44 million barrels.

In addition to crude oil, Nigeria produced 60.55 million barrels of condensate between January and October. This comprised 17.38 million barrels of blended condensate and 43.17 million barrels of unblended condensate, reflecting the growing role of condensates in supporting overall oil output.

Combined crude oil and condensate production during the period amounted to 503.79 million barrels, equivalent to an average total oil production of about 1.66 million barrels per day.

However, this performance fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget oil production benchmark of over two million barrels per day, which covers both crude oil and condensate.

At an average of 1.66 million barrels per day, Nigeria underperformed the budget target by about 340,000 barrels per day, representing a shortfall of roughly 17 per cent, despite condensate volumes boosting headline production.

Data from the commission show that average daily oil production in October stood at 1.60 million barrels per day, comprising 1.40 million barrels per day of crude oil and about 196,000 barrels per day of condensate. This placed Nigeria’s crude oil output for the month at 93 per cent of its OPEC allocation.

The continued gap between actual production and both OPEC and budget benchmarks has implications for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil exports remain a major source of fiscal funding.

While the Federal Government has pledged to raise oil output through improved security, reduced crude theft, and infrastructure rehabilitation, the January to October figures indicate that structural and operational challenges continue to constrain Nigeria’s oil production, even as condensate output provides some support to overall volumes.

For the 2026 fiscal year, the Federal Government is projecting about N60.97tn in oil revenue, lower than the earnings anticipated in the 2025 budget, reflecting more conservative assumptions on crude oil prices and production.

The projection is based on an analysis and the calculation of data contained in the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja by President Bola Tinubu recently.

According to the President, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has said repeatedly that Nigeria can achieve the production of three million barrels of oil per day in 2025.

“When we came, we barely did a million barrels. Today, we are doing 1.8 mbpd, and we can do more. And those who are responsible for this are more local. And that’s why I’m saying that look, we need to come together and continue on this trajectory. Let’s finish the journey that we have made together. From a million barrels, we have achieved an 80 per cent addition.

“I want to see how we can do 2.5 to three million barrels this year. And we can do it,” Lokpobiri said earlier in the year. However, this has not been achieved as of the time of this report.

Meanwhile, the newly appointed Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to reposition Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector, boost investments, and raise oil and gas production.

Eyesan formally assumed office on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, following a handover from the immediate past Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe. According to a statement, the new chief executive outlined her vision during her first town hall meeting with management and staff of the commission.

At the meeting, Eyesan said her priority was to make the NUPRC a business enabler and reignite investments in the upstream sector, stressing that effective regulation must support growth, investment, and value creation.