Over the last four months of the conflict between Iran, U.S and Israel, Nigeria has benefitted from the rising oil prices in the period, which rose to as much as $120 per barrel at a point. Throughout the four month period of the conflict, the commodity, which accounts for over 70 per cent of the country’s revenue, traded at above the $64.85 per barrel price benchmark set by the government in the 2026 budget.

According to available figures, the earnings is estimated at $17.78 billion in gross oil revenue between February and May 2026, translating to an excess of $6.51 billion in revenue income.

Meanwhile, the renewed hope from the peace talks between the Iran and the US saw Brent Crude trading at $78.14 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $74.18 per barrel, respectively yesterday.

But while the talks continued, several oil producing nations, including Nigeria, have gained from the conflict which began on February 28.

Irrespective of the gains, the inability of the country to meet the production quota set for her by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hugely affected gaining more revenue earnings, with an estimated $839.22 million in the first four months of 2026. Nigeria’s OPEC production quota is 1.5mbp, except in the month of May when production hit 1.7mbpd.

According to a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, in January, the country produced 45.236 million barrels of crude oil, averaging 1.459mbpd, or 1.264 million barrels shortfall for the month. Therefore, based on an average oil price of $68.05 per barrel, an estimated revenue loss of $86.02 million was incurred by the country.

In February, production fell to 36.783 million barrels, averaging 1.313 mbpd; or a monthly shortfall of 5.217 million barrels and an estimated revenue loss of $377.35 million, based on an average crude price of $72.33 per barrel.

For March, 42.868 million barrels were produced, equivalent to an average daily output of 1.386 mbpd, meaning a production shortfall of 3.132 million. It translated to a revenue loss of $332.27 million for the month.

Although in April oil output recorded an improvement, hitting 44.657 million barrels, or 1.488 mbpd, it notwithstanding still fell short of the country’s OPEC target by 0.344 million barrels, leading to a revenue loss of $43.59 million.

An economist and policy analyst, Dr. Muda Yusuf, described the development as a mixed bag for Nigeria. According to him, while a price drop in crude oil will naturally translate to a reduction in the pump prices of petrol, diesel, Jet A1 and gas, on the flip side, it portends a drop in revenue for the federal government.

“With the peace deal, crude oil prices will plummet and naturally this should cascade into the local oil market. So I expect that petrol prices should revert to what it used to be before the war. However, this will not be immediate because many of these distributors are carrying old stock, which they would have bought at a higher price before any fall in price set in. Remember that the Middle East is a major producer and supplier to the market; Qatar has left OPEC, so they will be free now to flood the market, meaning we are likely to see an even more drastic reduction in price.

“Should there be a drop in price, then the price reduction is likely to be gradual. But within the next four weeks or so, the situation should normalise and prices should come down to what normally it used to be. It should come to pre-war situation. If oil price comes to around $65 or so, then it should come to close to N800 or N900 per litre,” he said.

Already, the slight drop in price experienced last week is translating into pump price reduction for petrol in the domestic market. Yesterday, petrol had dropped to selling at between N1,205 per liter and N1, 275 per liter, a considerable reduction from the previous N1,330 per litre it sold for about a forthnight ago.

According to Yusuf, who is also the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), there is also a flip side to the price reduction for Nigeria.

“The flip side for Nigeria’s revenue is going to be negative because for all producing countries that were not caught up in this Middle East or Strait of Hormuz problem, who have been benefiting from the windfall, of course this will mean that the windfall will disappear. And earnings from crude oil will also affect revenue negatively.

“So we are likely to see a reduction in our oil revenue arising from this deal or the likely drop in crude oil price. It’s a no-brainer. The revenue will drop and of course it means that there are some benefits and some demerits,” Yusuf submitted.

The peace deal remains very significant for the global oil market as tension around the commodity is expected to ease up. Iran, for instance, will be able to resume crude exports during the 60-day ceasefire period, meaning a suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, while broader nuclear negotiations continue.

Stakeholders argued that while the agreement represents the most serious diplomatic breakthrough since the war began, they are however concerned that oil markets will remain on edge until the Strait of Hormuz is cleared of mines, the deal is signed, and normal shipping flows resume.