Nigeria has recorded its lowest food inflation rate in a decade, offering long-awaited relief to millions of households battling high living costs.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation fell sharply to 8.89% in January 2026, marking the first single-digit reading since May 2015, when it stood at 9.78%.

The new figure aligns with projections by analysts surveyed by BusinessDay, who had predicted a cooling in food prices ahead of the official data release.

The January data signals a major turnaround after years of persistent double-digit increases that squeezed household budgets across the country.

Import waivers and stronger naira drive Price relief

The drop in food inflation follows policy adjustments by the federal government, including import waivers on selected food items aimed at easing supply constraints and reducing logistics bottlenecks.

Improved foreign exchange stability and a steadier naira also contributed to moderating food costs.

For many Nigerians, the shift translated into noticeable reductions in staple food prices.

Dealers across major markets quoted lower rates for rice, beans, maize, palm oil, groundnut oil, eggs, water yams, green peas, and soybeans.

These items form a significant part of the average Nigerian diet, making the decline particularly impactful for families.

The NBS reported a month-on-month deflation of 6.02% in January, indicating a broad-based decrease in food prices within the period. This suggests that consumers experienced genuine relief rather than just slower price growth.

Annual food inflation falls sharply

Beyond the monthly figures, the broader annual trend also shows significant improvement.

The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending January 2026 stood at 20.29%. This represents a sharp 18.18 percentage-point drop compared to the 38.47% recorded in January 2025.

Economists believe the cooling trend could persist if exchange rate stability and improved supply chains are sustained.

Earlier commentary from BusinessDay noted that Nigeria’s moderation in food prices brings it closer to regional peers such as Kenya and Ghana, which posted food inflation rates of 7.8% and 3.9 percent respectively in January 2026.

Experts, however, attribute the decline to two factors, including a stable naira and harvest seasons.

"For now, the naira been relatively stable, easing imports and allowing importers to bring in food items at relatively cheaper rates. Also, this is a harvest season in the north, and most food items sell very cheap," financial analyst, Ishaya Ibrahim told Legit.ng during a call.

Headline inflation continues downward path

Headline inflation also maintained its downward trajectory, easing to 15.10%. A breakdown of the data shows food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 6.04% year-on-year.

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose by 1.27%, while transport climbed 1.61%. Restaurants and accommodation services recorded a 1.95% increase, and health services rose by 0.91%.

The data suggest that while food prices have cooled significantly, other sectors of the economy are still experiencing moderate cost pressures.

State-by-state breakdown

Inflationary pressures varied across states. Kogi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 19.84%, followed by Benue at 18.38% and Adamawa at 17.29%.

In contrast, Ebonyi posted the lowest increase at 1.69%, with Abia at 3.23% and Imo at 3.74%.

The divergence highlights regional differences in supply chains, agricultural output, and distribution networks.

With food inflation now at its lowest level in 10 years, many Nigerians are hopeful that the trend marks the beginning of sustained price stability and improved purchasing power after a prolonged period of economic strain.