Nigeria leads rise in OPEC oil production for October 2023 – Survey

Nigeria led the rise in OPEC oil production for October 2023. This is according to a November 1 Bloomberg survey.

According to Bloomberg, Nigeria was at the forefront of the surge in oil production among OPEC nations in October 2023.

The survey pointed out that most African members of OPEC showed slight increases in their crude oil production during the highlighted month.

According to Bloomberg’s findings, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collectively produced an average of 28.08 million barrels per day in October, marking a modest increase of about 50,000 barrels per day compared to September 2023.

Specifically, Nigeria led this rise in production, followed by Congo, Gabon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea.

OPEC is currently evaluating the production capabilities of several of these countries, which could potentially lead to an adjustment in their output quotas for the year 2024.

In October, Nigeria increased its output by 60,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.49 million barrels per day—the highest production level in almost two years.

However, this figure remains below the country’s targeted aspirations, leaving uncertainty about whether this increase will be adequate for a revision in the quota.

Bloomberg’s report stated that while African OPEC members saw an increase in production in October, fractional reductions were observed in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Libya, countering the overall upsurge.

The report also emphasized Nigeria’s expressed desire to elevate its production to former levels to secure a higher quota.

Note that Nigeria’s current crude oil production is 1.7 million barrels per day, but the country has been unable to reach that level of production.

Industry stakeholders seem to be divided over the real cause of the crude oil production decline in the country.

Some believe that crude oil theft is hampering production and has grown worse over the years.

However, a few others accuse some operators and the NNPCL of driving a false narrative of crude oil theft to justify security contracts handed out to former militants in the Niger Delta region.

The shortfall in Nigeria’s oil production in 23 years
Recall that in September 2023, Nairametrics reported that over 23 years, Statista’s analysis of Nigeria’s crude oil production revealed significant shifts.

Nigeria hit a peak of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the year 2000, but as of August 2023, it decreased to 1.1 mbpd.

The years highlighted show fluctuations from 2.15 mbpd in 2000, reaching a high of 2.52 mbpd in 2005, then a gradual decline to 1.89 mbpd in 2016.

Despite minor recoveries in 2017 and 2018, by 2022, production had dropped to 1.45 mbpd, falling further to 972,000 barrels per day due to increased theft in August 2022.

In 2023, data fluctuated from 1 mbpd in April to a peak of 1.26 mbpd in March, excluding condensates, meanwhile in September 2023, the country pumped 1.3 mbpd (excluding condensates) according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

It is important to note that from 2024, Nigeria will adopt OPEC’s revised oil production quota – 1.38 million barrels per day, however, stakeholders believe that the country will be able to catch up to its production quota before then and OPEC could review the quota upwards.