A fresh twist has emerged in Nigeria’s fuel market as Dangote Refinery’s latest petrol price reduction triggers mixed reactions across the country.

Despite the refinery’s decision to lower its ex-depot (gantry) price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by ₦49 per litre, most filling stations have yet to pass the benefit to motorists, with pump prices still hovering above ₦900 per litre nationwide.

The refinery’s new rate of ₦828 per litre, down from ₦877, represents a 5.6% decrease, marking the company’s second major downward review in three months.

The adjustment, which took effect on Friday, is expected to intensify competition among downstream operators.

Depot operators join price war

Following Dangote’s move, several depot operators followed suit with marginal reductions.

According to data from petroleumprice.ng, AITEO dropped its ex-depot price by ₦15 to ₦850 (1.73%), Bovas cut by ₦21 to ₦848 (2.42%), AYM Shafa reduced by ₦5 to ₦880 (0.56%), and Zamson lowered by ₦3 to ₦880 (0.34%).

The market adjustments come amid a global oil price slump. Brent crude currently trades at $63.63 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stands at $59.75, driven by OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes for early 2025 due to fears of oversupply.

Despite these conditions, the expected drop in retail pump prices remains elusive, frustrating motorists already burdened by inflation and rising transport fares.

Marketers blame old stock, new tariffs

The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) has warned that a new 15% import duty on PMS and diesel could offset any gains from lower ex-depot prices.

MEMAN’s Executive Secretary argued that the tariff, introduced to protect local refineries, could add about ₦122 per litre to petrol prices if implemented fully.

He cautioned that such an increase would ripple through logistics, transport, and inflation, calling for a transparent, evidence-based debate before enforcement.

Meanwhile, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) said many operators are waiting to exhaust old fuel stock purchased at higher prices before reflecting the new rates.

“These things are not done automatically,” said IPMAN’s Publicity Secretary, Mr. Chinedu Ukadike.

“Once the current stock is sold out, we expect a gradual reduction. Possibly by Monday, prices will begin to drop.”

Pump prices still high nationwide

Field reports show that in Lagos, major stations sell between ₦900 and ₦925 per litre, with NNPC outlets pegged at ₦920 and MRS at ₦910.

In Kano, prices remain as high as ₦960 per litre, while in Abuja, NNPC stations sell at ₦945 and independents at ₦955.

Some stations, including MRS outlets affiliated with Dangote, confirmed awareness of the new gantry rates but insisted that changes would only reflect after current supplies are depleted.

What Nigerians can expect next

Analysts believe that if crude oil prices continue their downward trend and Dangote sustains its price cuts, retail pump prices may finally begin to ease in the coming week.

However, uncertainty persists over the federal government’s import duty policy and its potential to trigger another round of hikes.

For now, Nigerians continue to watch and wait, hoping that the promised relief at the pumps will not remain another mirage in the country’s volatile fuel market.