The cost of importing petrol into Nigeria has dropped sharply to approximately ₦1,072 per litre, falling significantly below Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s wholesale price and raising expectations of renewed price competition in the downstream petroleum market.

The latest figures from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) show that imported petrol is now theoretically cheaper than locally refined fuel by more than ₦227 per litre, following a steep decline in global crude oil prices.

The development could strengthen the position of fuel importers and depot operators, although motorists may have to wait longer before any savings are reflected at filling stations.

Marketers reveal new petrol landing costs

According to MEMAN’s November 5 energy bulletin, the estimated spot import parity price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) declined to ₦1,072.72 per litre at ASPM Jetty and ₦1,071.72 at NPSC-NOJ Jetty, both in Apapa, Lagos.

The figures represent a substantial reduction from the 30-day average landing cost of ₦1,252.02 per litre.

This translates into a decline of approximately ₦179 to ₦180 per litre, suggesting that the economics of importing petrol have changed considerably within a short period.

Import parity represents the estimated cost of bringing petrol into Nigeria, including international product prices, freight, financing, foreign exchange and applicable charges.

It does not necessarily reflect the actual purchase price of imported cargoes or the amount marketers charge at depots.

Dangote petrol price faces fresh pressure

The latest estimates have created a significant pricing gap between imported petrol and products supplied by Dangote Refinery.

As of November 5, the refinery's PMS gantry price stood at ₦1,300 per litre, while its coastal price was ₦1,250.

Compared with the ASPM landing cost of ₦1,072.72, imported petrol was theoretically ₦227.28 cheaper than Dangote's gantry price and ₦177.28 below its coastal price.

At NPSC-NOJ Jetty, the differences widened slightly to ₦228.28 and ₦178.28, respectively.

The figures could influence purchasing decisions among marketers seeking cheaper supply alternatives.

However, the comparison does not establish that imported petrol is already being sold below Dangote's prices, as additional distribution costs and commercial considerations remain relevant.

Global crude oil prices trigger decline

The reduction followed a major sell-off in international oil markets on November 4.

Brent crude futures declined by approximately 8.1 per cent to $95.21 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell by eight per cent to $88.40.

Oilprice.com also reported sharp intraday losses, with Brent dropping to $94.66 and WTI reaching $88.08 per barrel.

The decline came amid shifting expectations surrounding geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, which had contributed to elevated crude prices.

Lower international oil prices generally reduce petroleum import costs, although the eventual impact depends on gasoline prices, exchange rates and shipping expenses.

Will Nigerian motorists pay less?

MEMAN's calculations used a seven-day average exchange rate of ₦1,347.44 per dollar, a 32 per cent annual financing assumption and an estimated 10-day shipping period.

These factors mean the reported figures remain estimates rather than confirmed market selling prices.

For Nigerian motorists, cheaper landing costs could eventually encourage competition and downward price adjustments.

However, a reduction in import parity does not automatically translate into cheaper petrol at filling stations.

Retail prices will depend on actual cargo costs, depot pricing decisions, distribution expenses and how quickly marketers adjust to changing market conditions.